Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Mike Poole]

The 18z // holds the interest for me at T168

It looks to be going in the direction shown as likely via the ECM clusters earlier, atlantic ridge into Greenland, maybe.

Edited February 26, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The 18z // holds the interest for me at T168

Much closer to the ECM at the same time frame...

[Griff]

Slowly slowly? 

[Griff]

Parallel is pretty 

[Griff]

Haters gonna hate  

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Parallel is pretty 

Yes, was just going to post that, home and hosed there!!  Consistent with ECM ensembles, I said earlier i thought a cold spell was looking more likely, I’ll double down on that now, I think it is probable second week into March.  

[damianslaw]

Changes at the medium timeframe around 120-144 hr mark today, all models seem to be converging on the same evolution, heights building over Greenland and then dropping SE to merge with current heights developing over the UK. It means a rather dry 7 days ahead, some fog and misty low cloud in parts, bit of drizzle in the north tomorrow but dry thereafter. Temperatures a little above average at first but trending cooler, with some cold nights.

Signal is for lower heights to our east and heights lowering to our NW in time, this means the high can only sink south through the UK to probably end up either to our SW or SE, allowing the atlantic to move back in.

We could be looking at a rather average dry first week to March followed by either a much more unsettled second week with temps average or a little below if we see more of a polar maritime airflow if heights sink to the SW and ebb west, or instead something milder and more settled away from the north if heights sink to the SE. All rather 'average' have to say, but possibility could see something more dramatic if we dig down a cold longwave trough from the NW in second week.

There is a third possibility heights sink but orientate themselves in a more west-east aligned fashion could easily see an easterly feed or something colder with a scandi trough and heights advected back west.

Edited February 26, 2021 by damianslaw

[Tim Bland]

This is more like it

 

 

Edited February 26, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Griff]

Always day 10

[Mike Poole]

// Pub run T258:

Thin finger of cold aimed directly at southern UK, what could possibly go wrong?  

Seriously, good model output today re an early march cold spell...let’s see...

Edited February 26, 2021 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS parallel 18z is a stonker!

[Battleground Snow]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

// Pub run T258:

Thin finger of cold aimed directly at southern UK, what could possibly go wrong?  

Seriously, good model output today re an early march cold spell...let’s see...

Mean is much improved on earlier.

with the vortex pulling away from Canada and Greenland next week we definitely have a chance of a cold snap.

[Allseasons-Si]

Been busy with sorting the car out today due to failed MOT on Wednesday on two front tyre's that was slick and looked good for a circuit  run

talk about slick,...the models today/tonight look very slick to me and the 18z gfs says no to the Atlantic even in fl,...the 18z gfs//p on the other hand ,...well i got frostbite looking at it

last night i did say that we are on the cusp and now,...we are on a bigger cusp

the latest from the day ten EPS is starting to show lower heights over mainland Europe and Scandinavia

500mb heights and temp anomalies...

i am up for one last blast of cold and i am sure many would agree with me so hands up all you coldies

@MATTWOLVES  @Griff @Don @Zak M @Battleground Snow @Mike Poole,...too many to list ha! ha!,...you know who you are

and wave #BOOM IS COMING TO TOWN#

well,...maybe a small boom

over the last couple of days the charts have upgraded on a cold perspective for the 6th of March> and it does look like a brief affair but can we extend this?

future runs to follow...

goodnight

 

 

Edited February 26, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[KTtom]

High shifts a bit further north during the week so we end up with a cold high by nextweekend with temperatures just below normal feeling cold in the east but pleasant in the sunshine elswhere. After that likely the high will drift south again and temperatures rise...all in all pretty much as the mets forecast...no sign of prononged or deep cold.

 

 

Edited February 27, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comment removed

[Griff]

A pleasant surprise this morning with an emerging colder picture, who knows, could work out for someone? Albeit briefly perhaps... 

Here's a selection of interesting charts. 

Edited February 27, 2021 by Griff

[Captain Shortwave]

It does look like things will turn colder by the end of the coming week with a cold front pushing south, probably very little rain on this. Behind perhaps a few scattered wintry showers in the east with a wind off the North Sea but otherwise dry with high pressure remaining in control.

[bluearmy]

We do see a short lived neg AO/NAO sig first week March (as many of us expected to see) 

the NAO may stay neg a little longer than the AO but this upcoming spell into mid March should prove to be winters last hurrah 

currently looks like we will be too far to the west to receive anything other than quite pleasant late winter fare (with a possible solid frosty leaning) - that’s not a given though as the envelope still has a pretty wintry edge still plausible. 

 

[johnholmes]

Saturday 27 th 500 mb anomaly update

Ec-gfs nothing out at 0855 as I type this but they have been quite consistent over several days with that from yesterday shown below

Noaa

Well another change in emphasis on the 6-10 with +ve heights being spread almost equally between Iceland 120 DM and off Newfoundland 90 DM, with a suggestion of the main ridge from the azores area out over the uk and curving west to Iceland and Greenland. The flow over the uk is reasonably slack so surface ridging, even if temporary is possible under the centre of the 500 flow. Just where is hard to say but the chart last evening tends to lean to more n of west than other points to me. There is also support for troughing into Europe on the lower parts of the 500 mb flow in the uk area.. Once again the changes suggest caution and a need to get at least  a couple of outputs with contours and heights to be consistent before making any predictions. The 8-14 has ‘lost’ almost all of any +ve height anomalies showing a fairly general flow across n America and the atlantic round what shows as a shallow major trough off its eastern seaboard with just a nod to any ridging east of the uk.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[damianslaw]

March coming in like a 'lamb' alot of calm, dry conditions ahead. Frost and fog in places, sunshine for some, cloud for others, trending cooler through the first week, likely to have more of a late winter feel than early spring.

Second week March probably more unsettled, nothing overly cold or mild on the horizon, but there could be a trend towards something colder than milder as we head into middle of the month, with mid Atlantic heights, supportive of spring la Nina profile.

Edited February 27, 2021 by damianslaw

[SqueakheartLW]

Who wants some very late March cold?

Member 21 of the GFS extended run for 30th March

That's the whole UK covered in the -10 isotherm with -15 uppers into the SE. Probably will be dry and cold here with that high pressure as close as it is but it could shift north a bit and give us more of a late season beasterly

[Methuselah]

29 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Who wants some very late March cold?

Member 21 of the GFS extended run for 30th March

That's the whole UK covered in the -10 isotherm with -15 uppers into the SE. Probably will be dry and cold here with that high pressure as close as it is but it could shift north a bit and give us more of a late season beasterly

Well yes, it'd certainly be cold enough! But mine eyes are drawn to those 'rather warm' uppers over North Africa... A sudden switch, like the one we had in early June 1975, would do me just fine!

Edited February 27, 2021 by General Cluster

[MATTWOLVES 3]

30 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well yes, it'd certainly be cold enough! But mine eyes are drawn to those 'rather warm' uppers over North Africa... A sudden switch, like the one we had in early June 1975, would do me just fine!

Did someone say Warm!! Not on my watch Pete

Cold snap incoming...im not satisfied...I want deeper cold....my eyes are fixed out East on the Beast...no pest from the West....or mouth from the South! Sorry I can't seem to find anything that rhymes with North!

Expect the unexpected! 

[Singularity]

Hmm. Even with fairly high pressure, 850s near -10*C could facilitate some daytime convection later next week. The sun’s getting enough oomph now.

Nothing major by any means - just the chance of scattered snow showers, many staying dry.

Of course this is assuming high pressure is as much across the UK as the likes of ECM are showing. I’d not rule out a disturbance developing in the cold flow across the North Sea.

[Mike Poole]

Not much on offer on the 12s!

Edited February 27, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Tim Bland]

Here is why even a mega easterly just won’t cut it now...roll on spring