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Model output discussion 10/02/21


phil nw.
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Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    This AO must be a near record negative level by now

    image.thumb.png.ad49c497c2d2770277229f38c95c8181.png

    You would think with such a negative value that mild weather was off the table but the NAO tells a different story

    image.thumb.png.8319523a08d8b11d343668491ba00330.png

    More or less neutral for the foreseeable. Guess main route for any cold based on this is via the Scandi High/Euro trough route with no real -NAO

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    Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
    6 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    This AO must be a near record negative level by now

    image.thumb.png.ad49c497c2d2770277229f38c95c8181.png

    You would think with such a negative value that mild weather was off the table but the NAO tells a different story

    image.thumb.png.8319523a08d8b11d343668491ba00330.png

    More or less neutral for the foreseeable. Guess main route for any cold based on this is via the Scandi High/Euro trough route with no real -NAO

    The NAO has been neutral to weakly negative most of the winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Gfs 12z rolling @Battleground Snow👀!!!!need to see it continue from the 06z!!!i personally think its gona downgrade a bit but i hope im wrong!!

    Yes the icon is awful so I'm not even going to post it.

    Shifts the high east

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

    Gfs 12z rolling @Battleground Snow👀!!!!need to see it continue from the 06z!!!i personally think its gona downgrade a bit but i hope im wrong!!

    Well we hope for an upgrade but if GEM and ECM are not on board then I hold little hope of the cold either continuing or returning next week

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

    GFS at 114, need them shortwaves in the Atlantic to behave and put pressure on the bottom of the high and not the top.

     

    gfsnh-0-114 (8).png

    Not a bad start!!very similar to 06z but difference to the east more than west!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
    4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    GFS at 114, need them shortwaves in the Atlantic to behave and put pressure on the bottom of the high and not the top.

     

    gfsnh-0-114 (8).png

    Those shortwaves look like they will put more pressure on the top of the high?

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    by Monday the 0 850 was over lands end on the 06z this run its over London.

    Yep one chase after a few days in the regionals and its appears I might have fallen at the 1st..... 🙂

    image.thumb.png.08d04fa13f836dbc93978c7968ea2da8.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    This low is the problem

    image.thumb.png.a61ce7cde8cb8020bfafea79781edc2e.png

     

    If this shoots NE then high sinks down to usual Sceuro and cold hopes are finished

    It would be better if it stalls and pushes SE and causes the high to push north

    Edited by SqueakheartLW
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Ukmo too far east at 144.

     

    UN144-21 (1) (17).gif

    Dont think this is over yet mate!!enough to tell me maybe we need to hang back a little!!ukmo is different at 144 hours compared to this morning so a lot going on i reckon!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Ukmo too far east at 144.

     

    UN144-21 (1) (17).gif

    Similar to GFS now at 144, so although looking unlikely, if the GFS could pull something out the bag inspite of that dreaded shortwave, we could almost say 2/2, yes a big leap of faith laced with some over positivity but...................

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    Posted
  • Location: Walderslade
  • Location: Walderslade

    Guys would one of you be able to explain what is moving the scandi high? Is it the jet stream or what? New to this and always wondered how forecasting what a polar vortex does or doesn’t do to affect the weather boggles me as I’m sure it does to a super computer. Less than 36 hours ago the scandi high was keeping us freezing for a couple weeks yet now it seems that it’s losing out to a low pressure. It’s all a bit beyond me. Thanks jas

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    The thing is even at 162 hours the block is still there and front are struggling to get any further than us!!!this is not over by a long way!!!especially if ecm moves towards gfs!

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Not bad from the gfs, not a lost call, with surface cold remaining, no mild trend by d7:

    anim_qcz1.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    We really need a big shot of WWA from this point to get back to cold

    GFSOPEU12_156_2.thumb.png.0137a9b91dbb94e722bf1290998c72eb.png

    1 - Look at that deep cold pool we could end up with if things go as I have shown. Cold air follows yellow arrows until it gets to UK

    2 - Warm air waiting down to the south pushes in the direction of the red arrow and forces the high back north again opening the gates to that deep cold which should have pushed into eastern Europe by the time this happens

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Been in the regionals for the last few days so only kept a watching brief on the models.  From what I'm seeing, we're definitely in the game for a final winter hurrah for late Feb/early March.  Looking at the UKMO, GFS and Para at 144 there are definitely paths to another easterly, although the prize goes to the Para at this point.

    image.thumb.png.86c9b45c413b125ed5dba297002c3df8.png

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