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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward


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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW BABY
  • Location: Yate, Bristol

    Don't wanna quote your entire post again AWD, but I think that's gotta be as good as it can get. Some miss out but I think that scenario would involve as many as possible.

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    It wasn't a lot but it was enough for a dwarf snowman

    A bit late in posting 😂 but we done very well (relatively) down here in the far west of Cornwall today. Proper snow for a solid 6 hours and unlike elsewhere in the country, no issue with settling. Set

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
    13 minutes ago, gman88667733 said:

    Wow! I've only got cloud and no snow all day tomorrow on my side of the Moor. Good luck!

    I'm totally unconvinced myself. Anything coming from the east usually gets the life sucked out of it by the higher parts of dartmoor. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    4 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Can we all bank this.

    BANK 🏦🤩

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    4 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

    Don't wanna quote your entire post again AWD, but I think that's gotta be as good as it can get. Some miss out but I think that scenario would involve as many as possible.

    Indeed.  Not sure I would read too much into it, especially for Friday, as it's very much on its own at the moment.  

    Saturday starting to become a twinkle in one's eye now.  Appreciate that it is very IMBY on Saturday, with those further south and west more likely to fall the wrong side of marginal, but it's interesting that the 18z ICON has very similarly followed the earlier UKV output, with northern and eastern parts of the region at risk of some rather heavier snowfall.  Again, wouldn't read too much into it yet, definitely wouldn't look at it in specific detail (re location, intensity etc), just something to watch over the coming cold, dry days ahead.

    Will be interesting to see what tomorrows output shows, and whether we can gain anymore traction towards an end of the week snowfall event.  The 12z modelling all but eliminated the chance, since then we've clawed some support back.

    Edited by AWD
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    Posted
  • Location: Snow Starved Southampton
  • Location: Snow Starved Southampton
    3 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

    Don't wanna quote your entire post again AWD, but I think that's gotta be as good as it can get. Some miss out but I think that scenario would involve as many as possible.

    Agreed, brings most into the game in this region. But it shows the clear risk of milder air encroaching for the southern contingent amongst us. 😔

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    Posted
  • Location: East Dartmoor
  • Location: East Dartmoor
    6 minutes ago, festivalking said:

    I'm totally unconvinced myself. Anything coming from the east usually gets the life sucked out of it by the higher parts of dartmoor. 

    You're probably right, but I hope you do get some. MO app shows snow still for Thursday over a 24 hour period, some hours it is now heavy snow. Normally by now it would have all been downgraded... Could it be?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
    10 minutes ago, gman88667733 said:

    You're probably right, but I hope you do get some. MO app shows snow still for Thursday over a 24 hour period, some hours it is now heavy snow. Normally by now it would have all been downgraded... Could it be?!

    Those apps are like going down a rabbit hole.  Continued viewing can drive you mad, I still look though!  Ha the downgrade on those apps can happen 6 hours before. Radar and wind direction in these situations. As long as the wind remains ese we are in with a chance as soon as it shifts to a southerly its usually game over and the only thing left is to drive to Princetown!

    Edited by festivalking
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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
    26 minutes ago, AWD said:

    Didn't think I'd be back on tonight but the 18z ICON brought me back.  The model goes down a different route and reinvigorates Thursdays night front over Devon into Friday, providing some notable snowfall for many parts of the West Country;

    iconeu_uk1-42-84-0.thumb.png.05d0edf9559d305dbb578596d21d538d.png

    iconeu_uk1-42-87-0.thumb.png.66ff8b1dd164560b88633997489d8213.png

    iconeu_uk1-42-90-0.thumb.png.5101f629d04580cf4954fa94f3b837d9.png

    Worth bearing in mind, it's very much the outside scenario at present, not much (if any) support for this on Friday, but hey, we need all the straws we can get at the moment.

    And another model very similar to todays 15z UKV output on Saturday, with some heavier snowfall for northern and eastern members of our region;

    iconeu_uk1-42-108-0.thumb.png.17792b538f1984af7fa351590f9410be.png

    I don’t know if the Beeb lag behind in terms of up dates but Tom Schafernaker just did quite a detailed weather report on the Beeb News channel and he showed this and also said they are expecting the cold to win out this week but next week is still very uncertain. I would say Thursday is most definitely our best chance of seeing cold down here this winter so I’ll everything crossed for us all in the SW to get in on the action 

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    Just now, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

    I don’t know if the Beeb lag behind in terms of up dates but Tom Schafernaker just did quite a detailed weather report on the Beeb News channel and he showed this and also said they are expecting the cold to win out this week but next week is still very uncertain. I would say Thursday is most definitely our best chance of seeing cold down here this winter so I’ll everything crossed for us all in the SW to get in on the action 

    The BBC use Meteogroup who are heavily biased towards the EC model.  The 12z EC Det showed the above scenario you mention, therefore it's no surprise that the BBC forecasts go with this.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
    2 minutes ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

    I don’t know if the Beeb lag behind in terms of up dates but Tom Schafernaker just did quite a detailed weather report on the Beeb News channel and he showed this and also said they are expecting the cold to win out this week but next week is still very uncertain. I would say Thursday is most definitely our best chance of seeing cold down here this winter so I’ll everything crossed for us all in the SW to get in on the action 

    Yep just saw that forecast, got the impression their could be multiple battleground scenarios playing out in our part of the county. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
    2 minutes ago, AWD said:

    The BBC use Meteogroup who are heavily biased towards the EC model.  The 12z EC Det showed the above scenario you mention, therefore it's no surprise that the BBC forecasts go with this.

    Their next update based on tonight's 12z ecm could be an interesting watch. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Interesting tweet from a senior forecaster at the Meto, especially for more southern and western members;

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    South west has been robbed this winter! I think every single place has gotten snow but us 🤣 even on Friday the front doesn’t make it in from the west but Ireland gets a dumping and it doesn’t make in to us... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    Only one run but its a corker for Devon and most of Cornwall. Different on the next run I'm sure

    Screenshot_20210208-223010_Meteociel.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
    5 minutes ago, festivalking said:

    Only one run but its a corker for Devon and most of Cornwall. Different on the next run I'm sure

    Screenshot_20210208-223010_Meteociel.jpg

    Would love to be down St Ives when it's snowing, it's a very hilly area so must be an absolute nightmare driving & walking around. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
    3 hours ago, BARRY said:

    image.thumb.png.bff92569d983d88ad304d043662cc26a.png

    I saw this on facebook lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    25 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    South west has been robbed this winter! I think every single place has gotten snow but us 🤣 even on Friday the front doesn’t make it in from the west but Ireland gets a dumping and it doesn’t make in to us... 

    Hmm, well looking at the plus side, there’s always next year, and the one after that, and the after that, and the one after that, and......

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    Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL

    There's a band of showers looking like it may get down as far as the Dorset coast overnight and this was mentioned on the BBC local weather just now as possibly producing a couple of centimetres.

    Here's the 18z Arpege which shows it very well:

    YsvbIpmRiO.thumb.gif.575641f18791b5f9e65bca1930b2ddf9.gif

    Could be a snowy surprise for some in the morning!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    36 minutes ago, AWD said:

    Interesting tweet from a senior forecaster at the Meto, especially for more southern and western members;

    Interesting but I suspect I'm too far north and east for this and end up in no mans land!

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    Channel Islands could be snowy tomorrow. Do 'we' have any islanders in here?

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    Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL

    The streamer I mentioned a couple of posts back is already forming by the look of it. I guess as it's coming from the Thames Estuary this would be classed as a Thames Streamer? 

    image.thumb.png.2fcf0abd23d3d77f195b3464687dbf55.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Snow Starved Southampton
  • Location: Snow Starved Southampton

    Can anyone get to this page?

    WWW.SOUTHAMPTONWEATHER.CO.UK

    Officially the most up-to-date weather reporting live from Southampton. With the very latest forecasts, charts, weather tv, marine info, astronomy and much more.

    I swear by this for temps and current conditions, but it seems to have gone down!

    Does anyone know of any other Southampton based stations?

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    Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
    1 minute ago, SouthernSnowFan said:

    Can anyone get to this page?

    WWW.SOUTHAMPTONWEATHER.CO.UK

    Officially the most up-to-date weather reporting live from Southampton. With the very latest forecasts, charts, weather tv, marine info, astronomy and much more.

    I swear by this for temps and current conditions, but it seems to have gone down!

    Does anyone know of any other Southampton based stations?

    Go on weather underground 

     

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