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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


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Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    Depends what you are looking for I suppose, surface cold is not enough to even keep the snow people have with the warm ground temps and increasing sun strength. I’d take clear and sunny though, anything other than barreling lows with cold rain! I’m hoping the ECM keeps the dream alive for a snowy breakdown. I’d like to see the first Atlantic push make it as far as my back yard then stall ...but that’s being very selfish lol 

    Snow shouldn’t melt easily with low dew points on shaded surfaces , there’s also  a degree of sublimation taking place , the mild weather in the run upto the cold didn’t help of course but it’s been a few days of cold temperatures now so that should be less of an issue . If the surface cold can hold out a bit longer there’s still the chance of more fronts .

     

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    Whilst some are looking W at the low pressure for a possible snowy breakdown. Im looking in the other direction. Could it be that no fronts will get anywhere near at the end of the week (except S

    Wow, it only took GFS one suite to catch up! Wasn't expecting that. This has to be the best period of model watching in the 15 years I've been doing it.

    This is the moment for me when the action really begins. The cold pattern was secured days ago, but only now are we close enough to start forecasting the snow with any confidence. 5 or 6 days with pot

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    I think there’s one front on Saturday judging by the day 4 chart but not sure how potent that will be this far out .

    Ah yes, good spot - a minor snow to rain event Saturday night, here's what the snow charts leave (these are usually quite stingy in the case of UKMO, SE snow is legacy of this week)

    Screenshot_20210209-175804.thumb.png.0f9f0d9a1194da628b013ed654ee2bb0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    2 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Ah yes, good spot - a minor snow to rain event Saturday night, here's what the snow charts leave (these are usually quite stingy in the case of UKMO, SE snow is legacy of this week)

    Screenshot_20210209-175804.thumb.png.0f9f0d9a1194da628b013ed654ee2bb0.png

    May aswell just rain ! Sure it wont be like that though...

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    1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

    Well really by day 6 it looks a bit of a stalemate.Both gfs/ukmp show the block is not giving enough to let the Atlantic right into the UK.

    It is more than likely the west will see something milder at least for a spell but a look at the gfs jet pattern at t144 shows the difficulty modeling is having in calculating the pathway forward.

    gfsnh-5-144.thumb.png.ec672b31ae60660b74224c8d7d0dd0b2.png

    The northern arm of the jet has no coherent pathway but does limited resistance to the ridge getting further north.The main energy in the jet is still running south so that Atlantic push remains quite indecisive up to there.

    Blue mentioned the jet stream charts earlier so. Normally when it is posted there is either one or two main arms around the globe. How rare (or not) is the current pattern and what has caused it? TIA

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Snow shouldn’t melt easily with low dew points on shaded surfaces , there’s also  a degree of sublimation taking place , the mild weather in the run upto the cold didn’t help of course but it’s been a few days of cold temperatures now so that should be less of an issue . If the surface cold can hold out a bit longer there’s still the chance of more fronts .

     

    True but at the current rate of sublimation, radiation (from above and below ) after a day of sun on Fri & Sat there won’t be any snow left to hold onto for 80% of the population 😥 UKMO has some precip across the west and north but is mainly dry for central and eastern areas. Fingers crossed for the ECM 🤞

    85570F6C-3285-4A35-A8EB-7F62444E9B25.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    8 minutes ago, Cavehill Snow said:

    Blue mentioned the jet stream charts earlier so. Normally when it is posted there is either one or two main arms around the globe. How rare (or not) is the current pattern and what has caused it? TIA

    I think (see my earlier post) that Meteociel have changed the way they plot this, with low jet stream winds plotted in purple.  This gives a false visual impression of where the main flow is, in my opinion.

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    I think someone needs to explain sublimation to the ECM. Here are the current snow depths 🤣

    6BF842BA-B4D9-401F-B10C-D4C23FCDC401.jpeg

    Ouch!

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Block is stronger on the 12z.

    00z                                                                                  12z

    image.thumb.png.512bd756acbcd9fdbae40a1706c5b9a9.png             image.thumb.png.d3f4b4c4c0ba9272e164cd28aca997fa.png

     Bear in mind that before this current cold spell there was a time when all of the models & ENS flipped mild to the consternation of many..... 😉

    Edited by Purga
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    Posted
  • Location: Marlow (Bucks)
  • Location: Marlow (Bucks)
    6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    I think someone needs to explain sublimation to the ECM. Here are the current snow depths 🤣

    6BF842BA-B4D9-401F-B10C-D4C23FCDC401.jpeg

    LOL

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    seems good, clearly mild in Ireland, cold in England, front assume over Irish sea, but assume no further east

    ECM1-96.GIF?09-0

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
    9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    I think someone needs to explain sublimation to the ECM. Here are the current snow depths 🤣

    6BF842BA-B4D9-401F-B10C-D4C23FCDC401.jpeg

    To be fair it’s got Leeds spot on to the exact cm

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales
  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales

    Just an observation on the Fax charts .. a little bizarre , and I cannot recall ever seeing LP @ 1026MB ... thoughts?

    image.thumb.png.f4d25dd417b62a8ab132dfc01bdbed78.png

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    seems good, clearly mild in Ireland, cold in England, front assume over Irish sea, but assume no further east

    ECM1-96.GIF?09-0

    At 120 it's over England as well

    image.thumb.png.834085743abc44b33cd9c52f51349b48.png

    Edited by snowice
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    12 ECM shows a front from the west sat stalling & then heading north ...

    8E8584F2-8D40-41E7-92D8-6A0CE0CC0C19.jpeg

    0AA11AEF-69EF-447B-BB7D-09022E226592.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
    3 minutes ago, StingJet said:

    Just an observation on the Fax charts .. a little bizarre , and I cannot recall ever seeing LP @ 1026MB ... thoughts?

    image.thumb.png.f4d25dd417b62a8ab132dfc01bdbed78.png

    I wish it was a bit further SW.

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    18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    I think (see my earlier post) that Meteociel have changed the way they plot this, with low jet stream winds plotted in purple.  This gives a false visual impression of where the main flow is, in my opinion.

    Thanks for the information - i agree with your conclusions.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    12 ECM shows a front from the west sat stalling & then heading north ...

    8E8584F2-8D40-41E7-92D8-6A0CE0CC0C19.jpeg

    0AA11AEF-69EF-447B-BB7D-09022E226592.jpeg

    Hmmm seems to keep cold continental air into sunday!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Sunday ...

    0FCCDF96-BE57-4466-A60B-245AEEE67BF3.jpeg

    C01465E3-CC67-4857-B57E-94A55DE23D20.jpeg

    6B76B607-92B8-4220-829A-7DEBEE7BD515.gif

    Edited by Tim Bland
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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    12 ECM shows a front from the west sat stalling & then heading north ...

    8E8584F2-8D40-41E7-92D8-6A0CE0CC0C19.jpeg

    0AA11AEF-69EF-447B-BB7D-09022E226592.jpeg

    Noticed anything weird about those charts at all?

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastdene nr seaford
  • Weather Preferences: warm spring days and summer thunderstorms
  • Location: Eastdene nr seaford

    I Would take it day by day, but each day now the sun is gaining strength, once that wind backs more to the south of East at least it will warm up some.

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    12 ECM shows a front from the west sat stalling & then heading north ...

    8E8584F2-8D40-41E7-92D8-6A0CE0CC0C19.jpeg

    0AA11AEF-69EF-447B-BB7D-09022E226592.jpeg

    Manchester has moved to Scotland chasing the snow and London has moved to the North sea.lol😀

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales
  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales
    3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

    Noticed anything weird about those charts at all?

    Earth Crust Displacement ?  🙂

     

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    Message added by Paul,

    It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
    There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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