Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[nick sussex 64,034]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Depends what you are looking for I suppose, surface cold is not enough to even keep the snow people have with the warm ground temps and increasing sun strength. I’d take clear and sunny though, anything other than barreling lows with cold rain! I’m hoping the ECM keeps the dream alive for a snowy breakdown. I’d like to see the first Atlantic push make it as far as my back yard then stall ...but that’s being very selfish lol 

Snow shouldn’t melt easily with low dew points on shaded surfaces , there’s also  a degree of sublimation taking place , the mild weather in the run upto the cold didn’t help of course but it’s been a few days of cold temperatures now so that should be less of an issue . If the surface cold can hold out a bit longer there’s still the chance of more fronts .

 

[Man Without Beard 25,232]

15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think there’s one front on Saturday judging by the day 4 chart but not sure how potent that will be this far out .

Ah yes, good spot - a minor snow to rain event Saturday night, here's what the snow charts leave (these are usually quite stingy in the case of UKMO, SE snow is legacy of this week)

[Sweatyman 1,435]

2 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Ah yes, good spot - a minor snow to rain event Saturday night, here's what the snow charts leave (these are usually quite stingy in the case of UKMO, SE snow is legacy of this week)

May aswell just rain ! Sure it wont be like that though...

[Cavehill Snow 80]

1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

Well really by day 6 it looks a bit of a stalemate.Both gfs/ukmp show the block is not giving enough to let the Atlantic right into the UK.

It is more than likely the west will see something milder at least for a spell but a look at the gfs jet pattern at t144 shows the difficulty modeling is having in calculating the pathway forward.

The northern arm of the jet has no coherent pathway but does limited resistance to the ridge getting further north.The main energy in the jet is still running south so that Atlantic push remains quite indecisive up to there.

Blue mentioned the jet stream charts earlier so. Normally when it is posted there is either one or two main arms around the globe. How rare (or not) is the current pattern and what has caused it? TIA

[Tim Bland 13,982]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Snow shouldn’t melt easily with low dew points on shaded surfaces , there’s also  a degree of sublimation taking place , the mild weather in the run upto the cold didn’t help of course but it’s been a few days of cold temperatures now so that should be less of an issue . If the surface cold can hold out a bit longer there’s still the chance of more fronts .

 

True but at the current rate of sublimation, radiation (from above and below ) after a day of sun on Fri & Sat there won’t be any snow left to hold onto for 80% of the population 😥 UKMO has some precip across the west and north but is mainly dry for central and eastern areas. Fingers crossed for the ECM 🤞

[Mike Poole 31,131]

8 minutes ago, Cavehill Snow said:

Blue mentioned the jet stream charts earlier so. Normally when it is posted there is either one or two main arms around the globe. How rare (or not) is the current pattern and what has caused it? TIA

I think (see my earlier post) that Meteociel have changed the way they plot this, with low jet stream winds plotted in purple.  This gives a false visual impression of where the main flow is, in my opinion.

Edited February 9 by Mike Poole

[Tim Bland 13,982]

I think someone needs to explain sublimation to the ECM. Here are the current snow depths 🤣

[Drifter 906]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

I think someone needs to explain sublimation to the ECM. Here are the current snow depths 🤣

Ouch!

[Purga 5,216]

Block is stronger on the 12z.

00z                                                                                  12z

            

 Bear in mind that before this current cold spell there was a time when all of the models & ENS flipped mild to the consternation of many..... 😉

Edited February 9 by Purga

[Riky91 80]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I think someone needs to explain sublimation to the ECM. Here are the current snow depths 🤣

LOL

[I remember Atlantic 252 7,587]

seems good, clearly mild in Ireland, cold in England, front assume over Irish sea, but assume no further east

[Decemberof2010 1,533]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I think someone needs to explain sublimation to the ECM. Here are the current snow depths 🤣

To be fair it’s got Leeds spot on to the exact cm

[StingJet 101]

Just an observation on the Fax charts .. a little bizarre , and I cannot recall ever seeing LP @ 1026MB ... thoughts?

[snowice 1,898]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

seems good, clearly mild in Ireland, cold in England, front assume over Irish sea, but assume no further east

At 120 it's over England as well

Edited February 9 by snowice

[Tim Bland 13,982]

12 ECM shows a front from the west sat stalling & then heading north ...

[sheikhy 4,593]

Ecm says no at 120 hours!!!!looks halfway at the very best!!!

[Cloud 10 8,114]

3 minutes ago, StingJet said:

Just an observation on the Fax charts .. a little bizarre , and I cannot recall ever seeing LP @ 1026MB ... thoughts?

I wish it was a bit further SW.

[Cavehill Snow 80]

18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think (see my earlier post) that Meteociel have changed the way they plot this, with low jet stream winds plotted in purple.  This gives a false visual impression of where the main flow is, in my opinion.

Thanks for the information - i agree with your conclusions.

[sheikhy 4,593]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

12 ECM shows a front from the west sat stalling & then heading north ...

Hmmm seems to keep cold continental air into sunday!!!

[Tim Bland 13,982]

Sunday ...

Edited February 9 by Tim Bland

[andymusic 3,724]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

12 ECM shows a front from the west sat stalling & then heading north ...

Noticed anything weird about those charts at all?

[sheikhy 4,593]

Forget it lol!!!!!dont even bother!!

[TROY 155]

I Would take it day by day, but each day now the sun is gaining strength, once that wind backs more to the south of East at least it will warm up some.

[snowice 1,898]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

12 ECM shows a front from the west sat stalling & then heading north ...

Manchester has moved to Scotland chasing the snow and London has moved to the North sea.lol😀

[StingJet 101]

3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

Noticed anything weird about those charts at all?

Earth Crust Displacement ?  🙂