Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

    It’s all shunted to Far East on the 18z . Night see u tomorrow 👍

    8B2A965E-47C4-4C5E-807B-8DC835433D9E.png

    Famous last words, bound to be spectacular at..... Day 10 😜

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    Just now, Howie said:

    Just when you thought you were getting consistency.....

    Yup and i had a feeling this was gona happen!!i just struggled to see how it could top the 12z!!just when we saw the ecm and ukmo improve!!!

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Your culprit is these two buggers.

    image.thumb.png.bfa356bae022a43238420851d688f40f.png

    12z had one shortwave that was the left one, 18z spawns two stopping the high from stretching NE.

     

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Just now, Snowman. said:

    Your culprit is these two buggers.

    image.thumb.png.bfa356bae022a43238420851d688f40f.png

    12z had one shortwave that was the left one, 18z spawns two stopping the high from stretching NE.

     

    Oh no not shortwave drama creeping into the mess 😒

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Just now, sheikhy said:

    Yup and i had a feeling this was gona happen!!i just struggled to see how it could top the 12z!!just when we saw the ecm and ukmo improve!!!

    Yeah it can't ever be plain sailing can it 🙃

    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    This is still going to end up a stonker, watch the renewed vertical WAA in a minute.

    image.thumb.png.a4c7140747db0b106b9d557c59233b40.png

    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton
  • Location: Nuneaton
    1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

    Your culprit is these two buggers.

    image.thumb.png.bfa356bae022a43238420851d688f40f.png

    12z had one shortwave that was the left one, 18z spawns two stopping the high from stretching NE.

     

    At least we would get some snow out of this instead of just cold dry air I suppose 😏

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    This is still going to end up a stonker, watch the renewed vertical WAA in a minute.

    image.thumb.png.a4c7140747db0b106b9d557c59233b40.png

    Well there's still a lot of cold near

    gfsnh-1-186.png

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
    4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Yup and i had a feeling this was gona happen!!i just struggled to see how it could top the 12z!!just when we saw the ecm and ukmo improve!!!

    Technically it hasnt happened. Don’t get too caught up, especially when it comes to the GFS. Start to get worried if the ECM or UKMO start pulling away from the idea 

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Yup and i had a feeling this was gona happen!!i just struggled to see how it could top the 12z!!just when we saw the ecm and ukmo improve!!!

    but the snow event next Sun!!!!!!!

    prectypeuktopo.png

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    but the snow event next Sun!!!!!!!

    prectypeuktopo.png

    Yup bit further east so more snow!!!but when comparing this run to the mean and ecm mean it seems an outlier!!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    called it wrong, two areas of troughing engaged now, always game over when that happens to the North of UK - onto the GEFS now.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Just shows you how difficult easterlies with a deep cold pool are to land .

    However I certainly wouldn’t lose any sleep over one GFS run. 

    • Like 6
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Latest fax for Monday and Tuesday night. Looks like they are going with UKV re streamer placement 

    8D75FFE6-EF70-45BC-9709-F0E6778EA515.jpeg

    E5C38BE3-E9BA-4D70-997B-8B07144C0E16.jpeg

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GFS 18z is like a car crash where it is not clear if the brakes, engine or windscreen wipers were at fault. 

    T210

    F796FFBF-4D9A-4AA8-A43A-2994AA93CE15.thumb.png.45b87d4cb76cfbe19b3b13ec54af0e4a.png

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Do we trust the 955mb dartboard low?

    image.thumb.png.5a06b515cee70b8f47e423b5fccb09e9.png

    🤔🤔

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: newquay, cornwall
  • Location: newquay, cornwall
    3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    GFS 18z is like a car crash where it is not clear if the brakes, engine or windscreen wipers were at fault. 

    T210

    F796FFBF-4D9A-4AA8-A43A-2994AA93CE15.thumb.png.45b87d4cb76cfbe19b3b13ec54af0e4a.png

    What is funny tho is that suddenly everyone saw it coming! Not that the last 30 pages could prove it . 

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    3 hours ago, weathercold said:

    Could you explain for us amateurs how the block needs to align for a feb 91 style set up? The current projections look freezing but v dry with high pressure in charge post this week. Thanks 

    The block needs to be far enough north to allow one of 2 things. Either a Euro trough underneath that develops over northern Italy and moves north into the block (Feb 91) or an Atlantic that stays active and pushes fronts west to east disrupting as they hit the block, sliding south and dropping a lot of snow on the collision zone. For a widespread rather than localised south England event we would be better off with the Feb 91 setup. To get it we therefore need the block to as far north as possible. If it sits too close to the U.K. we will be dry.

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    That’s because subsequent runs by every model won’t show this at all. Enjoy the next 30 pages! 😁

    In in any case cold still hasn't cleared East coast yet at T130 on an ensemble mean where as it had on the 12z. decent suite coming up hopefully, not sure if it will beat last nights though!.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales

    not overly concerned about this one chart. ~ (I think referred as the members?) people have showed a wide range of them, some of their uppers -10.. others +10 

     We're talking ahead to a low that is only just developing.. an easterly which continually changes its influence.. and now also what happens North of us.. -- the differences are too dramatic to have concluded its ultimate output as shown by each 6 hourly update. We will probably be looking at this all the way up until Wednesday,. when we should feel confident (unless we have a marginal situation)

    None the less.. the whole battle carries some very interesting possibilities.. 
    Extreme cold dry air from the East.
    A snow battle ground over us 
    from the West.. the strength of the winds 

    Exciting times!

     

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
     Share

    • Mixed bag this weekend, some sun and some rain

      Dry with sunny spells for many on Saturday, though a band of showery rain for parts of the north and west. Heavy rain moving into eastern areas on Sunday, turning brighter in the west. Fine first half of next week, unsettled second half. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Hints of autumn. Warm sunshine for the weekend but also rain from the west

      Hints of autumn are making themselves known, fog and a coolness in the morning. Leaves beginning, slowly, to turn. But there is still warm sunshine for the weekend but also rain from the west. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      What is CoP26?

      CoP26 is the UN Climate Change Conference, this is the 26th Conference of Parties, in Glasgow. The Parties are issuing important NDCs, Nationally Determined Contributions, their climate plans. Read more here

      Jo Farrow
      Jo Farrow
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...