Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
    46 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Retrogression to Greenland discussed monday as well in regionals potentially tied to mjo phase 8?

    Hopefully not. Let's hope it stays in phase 7 as long as possible. Phase 8 often flatters to deceive. When models 1st pickup on phase 8 they show impressive Greenland high but as time ticks down we more often then not end up with west based -Nao. Ideally the MJO meanders around the border of 7&8 at decent amplitude supporting prolonged scandie high pushing towards Iceland.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 2.3k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Whilst some are looking W at the low pressure for a possible snowy breakdown. Im looking in the other direction. Could it be that no fronts will get anywhere near at the end of the week (except S

    Wow, it only took GFS one suite to catch up! Wasn't expecting that. This has to be the best period of model watching in the 15 years I've been doing it.

    This is the moment for me when the action really begins. The cold pattern was secured days ago, but only now are we close enough to start forecasting the snow with any confidence. 5 or 6 days with pot

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Here’s the chart, that is, we believe the record....

    F542426B-5979-42FD-94FA-9E195FCAD8CB.thumb.png.86de4ab61afe96f83ea12edd41e49d8f.png

     

    I said -17 would be breached on this suite - how about jan 87 leveller?

    image.thumb.png.5c9f27b8d8c699ec1c3a77fc51ddc5ee.png

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    1 minute ago, pages said:

    Hopefully not. Let's hope it stays in phase 7 as long as possible. Phase 8 often flatters to deceive. When models 1st pickup on phase 8 they show impressive Greenland high but as time ticks down we more often then not end up with west based -Nao. Ideally the MJO meanders around the border of 7&8 at decent amplitude supporting prolonged scandie high pushing towards Iceland.

    Yes very good point.

    Phase 8 at high amplitude is very reminiscent of march 2018 with a wham bam thank you mam type cold period but signs are there and have been there for this meandering you speak of. If you look at the 18z the high pressure is a murr sausage between greenland and scandi. This spell has to end however and for me the move into 8 then 1 is how it does.

    West based NAO end of Feb with severl impactcul battle ground snow falls. 

    The met i believe are on my line of thinking as well. 

    Read the text forecast upto March 6th

    Fitst or second week in march would be my loose thinking for the end. 

    Sure most would he happy at that stage though!

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    The gefs mean has a retrogression of the high into Greenland from 192-336...

    anim_nnw3.thumb.gif.f3a99ab4a329fe3f10af90222ebfdd6d.gif

    Yes. Right on cue. If not a little too quick however

    Edited by Scott Ingham
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Plymouth, 7m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & snow, hot & thundery!
  • Location: Plymouth, 7m asl.
    1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    that's the best run i've ever seen.

    Never one for little to express....but one word....Insane!!!😮😯🤑🤑😆😊

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Plymouth, 7m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & snow, hot & thundery!
  • Location: Plymouth, 7m asl.
    1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

    😱😱😱😱😱😱😱😱😱😱😱😱🥶😱🥶🥶😱🥶😱😱🥶🥶🥶🥶

    You think you seen it all in the last week and then this comes out 

    48D2C308-5B8F-4000-A9DD-918A297AB3C1.png

    9B90A134-2A19-4700-A85C-B3100BC85D33.png

    Just -14's in my back yard...balmy Devon yet again...😉😜😁

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Plymouth, 7m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & snow, hot & thundery!
  • Location: Plymouth, 7m asl.
    46 minutes ago, BLIZZARDMAN said:

    -20 HAS TOUCHED THE COAST, INSANE ENSEMBLE

    gens-6-0-312.png

    A monumentus day has just unfolded....The 06th February, heralds and introduces a brand new weather model.......ICC.....

    If Carlsberg Could....

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    Greenland highs are awful for the south of uk, hopefully it’s still scandi 

    Scandi highs are awful for most far Western areas, hopefully it's a Greenland. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
    2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

    D6 GEFS mean

    image.thumb.png.07e873958c9635d94ab17c64fdb1b97c.png

    Hell on

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
    1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

    Scandi highs are awful for most far Western areas, hopefully it's a Greenland. 

    Yeah we def want a Greenland one.

    Let's the lot in the South have some much deserved Snow this week, then let the Big Boys from the North join the fun. 🤣.

    With them charts we might even need get our Jumpers out next Couple of weeks 🤣

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bridgwater, Somerset
  • Location: Bridgwater, Somerset
    3 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

    With them charts we might even need get our Jumpers out next Couple of weeks 🤣

    Been such a long time since I've worn one I've forgotten what it's like! 😂

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
    Just now, Snow Of '78 said:

    Been such a long time since I've worn one I've forgotten what it's like! 😂

    🤣🤣🤣🤣

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales
  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales
    1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

    New winner? P6

    I have a feeling 330am icon club will have a few more members tomorrow

     

    gensnh-6-1-312.png

    gensnh-6-0-312.png

    lol .. just returned to the laptop after a break to watch "Greenland" on Amazon .. to see the end of the 18z GFS run ..... talk about "Eye Candy"  .. is the P6 also dialling in a shift of the earth's axis .. aka Iceland is the new North Pole 🙂

    Edited by StingJet
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales
  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales
    10 minutes ago, StingJet said:

    lol .. just returned to the laptop after a break to watch "Greenland" on Amazon .. to see the end of the 18z GFS run ..... talk about "Eye Candy"  .. is the P6 also dialling in a shift of the earth's axis .. aka Iceland is the new North Pole 🙂

    850 Anomaly is off the richter scale 😲

    image.thumb.png.3bca60a13cfc1f68e1910e44f493b906.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    A different look at some of the instruments available to us. Looking at the wind direction from the GEFS for Cardiff, we see no westerly influence from any of the members over the next few weeks! Quite remarkable and considering we had a reversal in the strat, it sure does seem like we are having it printed on our troposphere. 

    DBD93F72-2A6C-4642-8E3A-9779526C25BB.jpeg

    Edited by Panayiotis
    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
    3 hours ago, Smiler1709 said:

    What I will say on the subject of extreme cold, people rightly saying that it’s all going to go badly when these beauts don’t materialise, but what I will say is the trend is there, yes it most likely won’t be like this come the day, but the way things are going models wise I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re talking about the February of 2021 for years to come. Sweet dreams 👍

     Indeed I think that the models are showing cannot be discounted totally over the last few years we have had two extremes February 2018 beast from the east following year we had 20 1C in February. This may come off it may not if it did however I would think this country will not be able to cope personally I would love a winter of extremes. I also think that the 3SSW we had this winter has helped things along any further warming are we expecting in the Strat guys? 😨🥶

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    Icon a little too far east with the pattern at 180 , however it was the most eastern solution on all of the 12z runs too, still very cold at surface

    iconnh-0-180 (23).png

    iconnh-1-180 (7).png

    Edited by Battleground Snow
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul,

    It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
    There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • Staying cool and showery with heavy, thundery downpours

      The weather continues on with its cool, showery and unsettled pattern, with more heavy downpours during the next few days. Then, to finish the week, a deep low arrives bringing a spell of wet and windy conditions. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-05-18 06:21:01 Valid: 18/05/2021 0600 - 19/05/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - TUES 18TH MAY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Strong winds from an Atlantic low later this week adding to cool, wet May

      May 2021 has been colder than average with a lot of rain for some parts of the UK. A low pressure heading in for the end of the week could bring gales. Read more here

      Jo Farrow
      Jo Farrow
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...