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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales

    image.thumb.png.20da36d5fc7bb90440630b1923aef9cc.pngDon't think I have ever seen so much blue coldness over the south, let lone violet. which is normally reserved for the highlands

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    Posted
  • Location: Vauxhall, London
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, dry summers
  • Location: Vauxhall, London

    Incredible GFS output lately. Most of the country below freezing from tomorrow until the end of the run. Very good setup with a freezing cold continent.

    Big ramp but February 2021 could go down in the history books for cold. Just need to work on the snowfalls! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
    14 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    This post was removed

    It's the trend that matters!

    There will be a few surprises for some locations over the coming days, if we get round 2 then you would expect snow to appear closer to T0

    Edited by Blessed Weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Mile Oak, 3 miles West of Brighton UK, 130 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Mile Oak, 3 miles West of Brighton UK, 130 Meters above sea level
    6 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    Phenomenal output from a coldies' perspective.

    Are we watching a Classic unfold?

    Always at day 10. But as I am writing this, the snow and frost is already entering the East of the Netherlands and there will be no mild between now and day 10.

    Everyone please appreciate how incredibly rare it is what we are watching right now.

    GFS-240 6feb12.png

    And if this verifys look at the atlantic, there's absolutely nothing coming our way from there, that's cold locked in for a long while. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Wait till you see it's day 10 chart..

    It's almost unbelievable, but I think somehow it's possible

    Is it turning towards purple? 😉 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Wow. Just wow. This winter has certainly been an exciting time for model watching, and as when you thought it wouldn't get better, it has. Stonking charts on the 12Z GFS, straight after a cold period of weather!! These developments are very encouraging as the models are following this trend of a mega scandi high. Looking at this, my CET prediction of 2.5 for February might be too high 😂😂

    gfs-0-276.thumb.png.4f774559092a3ea31e25843136883a5c.png   gfs-9-300.thumb.png.c8b12cd1b44728be5646d1dcc81e2a6f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

    As Paul Gambochini would say it's now back to the 80's, and with some classics about to be played. Thames Streamers, Battleground Snow, and eventually significant blizzards !  Both Frankie and the man from Del Monte says yes !!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales
  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales
    25 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    A fantastic GFS 12z run this afternoon out to t216, it looks increasingly likely that this cold spell isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. This has to be one of the most exciting periods of model watching that I have ever taken part in!😃❄️
    90F51291-44F0-475F-8555-AA65DD13BECC.thumb.png.a9d186881979134ee3c652151b0c6168.png5A60E940-1BDA-4016-AFDB-21384DEC468C.thumb.png.eaa2bfb6ae6f145f0976a31b92643a05.png

     

    If only the face of the "beast (from the east)" , as depicted on the +216 would raise its "lower jaw" the uk would be in the line of fire for some exceptionally low 850's 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol - UK
  • Weather Preferences: None - UK weather is always exciting at some point
  • Location: Bristol - UK
    29 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    OMG where is everyone? 

    328AB186-91CC-4A20-BEB5-7CB43B4754DC.png

    They are watching the rugby 😂😂😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex

    What interests me about the potential 2nd wave of cold, is that it covers more of continental Europe. That will make it increasingly difficult for Atlantic systems to make inroads, and when they do they only have frigid air to pull in ahead of their warm fronts. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

    Solid GEFS 12z ensemble mean out to t168. Some of the individual runs are going to be fantastic.

    748842F7-13C3-42CD-AE84-F37EE7913549.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton
  • Location: Nuneaton
    16 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

    Incredible GFS output lately. Most of the country below freezing from tomorrow until the end of the run. Very good setup with a freezing cold continent.

    Big ramp but February 2021 could go down in the history books for cold. Just need to work on the snowfalls! 

    Snow would most likely come from streamers I suspect, very difficult to pin point at ling range 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    I'm still cautious cause the models can shift very fast, we've seen it many times so far this winter. But if that came off we may be looking at a Feb 1986 style month!!

    gfs-0-360.thumb.png.43b01e473ccd5286fadfecdd49baa53e.png

    Could envisage that high over the UK providing some harsh frosts given the cold airmass we've been in.

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