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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Ackkers Explorer

Ackkers

Posted
  • Location: Silver Hill, Salehurst, East Sussex. 110m asl
  • Location: Silver Hill, Salehurst, East Sussex. 110m asl
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Posted
6 minutes ago, Notty said:

Is that the actual Jack Frost in green?

image.thumb.png.4e1743dfe258d78c90cee48be2ece637.png

Looks like Kenneth Williams (one for the kids there)...

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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
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Posted

That mild spell did not last long.

image.thumb.png.f6f5c5f4d3e8ef05a7035ff96f563820.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

ECM T192, and the resurgence of the cold is there, it never left the eastern half of the country:

39E389A4-588A-4CB6-AD1B-5B7DA7E9F198.thumb.png.a466bd2681f439790c127d6d198ab963.png842D5E6B-D153-4616-BCA3-9E83D10ACFE1.thumb.png.4ab612ac5ccc1812325af71241616be3.png

High is a bit too close on this run at the moment but await the last two frames to correct that maybe!  Retrogression a possibility...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
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Posted (edited)

Finally a chart to please Feb. 

-160 uppers about to flood our way

IMG_1950.PNG

Edited by Decemberof2010
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Cracking = great

Rather than

Cracking = about to break? 

? 

=great and @168 it’s 7/10.. but could  evolve as gfs.. as we gain in days and perhaps push them heights further.. =tap into deeper cold =quicker 

6FE0D61C-1BDC-46A5-8CAB-6DDC7C0A8BC4.gif

AAFF4B89-B391-4017-B06F-744A48214F55.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Biggin Rising Star

Biggin

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
Posted
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Low staying out there with higher temps I think!

It would seem so Mike Looks like we are in the freezer for quite a while. 

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

UKV will please those further west

B83D9081-DEA8-44DA-98DA-0ABFE2AF465C.jpeg

2B66466A-940E-4C96-A0A2-C2E34AFCF14E.jpeg

This front is crucial for those in the west, just hoping it actually delivers some snowfall. 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

The ECM can’t develop as well as the GFS in terms of the cold pool because the high isn’t orientated as favourably at day 6 . Although some deeper cold could still run west across the southern flank of the high as it moves nw. 

But we’re still in the game because that could still change .  

The ECM looks like it’s going to retrogress the high nw wards , and then look out for another attempt with a shortwave running sw from the ne later .

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
2 minutes ago, snowice said:

That mild spell did not last long.

image.thumb.png.f6f5c5f4d3e8ef05a7035ff96f563820.png

Wouldn’t even turn milder much if at all at the surface. Certainly not on Thursday anyway

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Gary L Contributor

Gary L

Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth
  • Location: Saddleworth
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Posted
1 minute ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Finally a chart to please Feb. 

-160 uppers about to flood our way

IMG_1950.PNG

-160 we’re all dead!

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geordiekev Experienced

geordiekev

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Griff said:

Woooooowwwww

ECH1-192.gif

ECH0-192 (5).gif

Looks to be morphing into Griceland/Scandi high. Can we still use the sausage ref or is it copyrighted

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Finally a chart to please Feb. 

-160 uppers about to flood our way

IMG_1950.PNG

-160 Steady on! Even the most extreme coldy have their limits......

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

At this rate we wont even have a spring

Nope, straight to summer as 2018 is my prediction.  Early April.  Good for squashing the virus too. 

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

A solid day 8 chart

image.thumb.png.975c46c251d35169b508bc2242e2057e.png

Only getting colder from here as the easterly wind straightens and increases in strength and depth of cold. Some showers developing towards the south east.

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Biggin Rising Star

Biggin

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
Posted
1 minute ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Finally a chart to please Feb. 

-160 uppers about to flood our way

IMG_1950.PNG

 Ouch Wonder what it is sposed to be...

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted

You beauty ECM...the drama continues and Winter refuses to go away...unlike last year when it failed to turn up...fabulous stuff guys.

ECH0-192.gif

ECH1-192.gif

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Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Posted
1 minute ago, Biggin said:

 Ouch Wonder what it is sposed to be...

Ssshhh it's a -20 under a a -16 that overlap.

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saintkip Rising Star

saintkip

Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Location: Basingstoke
Posted
9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

UKV will please those further west

B83D9081-DEA8-44DA-98DA-0ABFE2AF465C.jpeg

2B66466A-940E-4C96-A0A2-C2E34AFCF14E.jpeg

The would be amazing, missed today by being 10 miles too west and that 10 miles too east. Sorry imby post

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

V-good ecm... and the signal certainly there for a return from the east.. that being it even drops it’s grip initially... 12z ecm is worthy

EBBAAFB5-3A04-4AAF-A5DE-013E28D41D8B.gif

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

UKMO 144hrs very similar to the ECM 144hrs (UKMO slightly better with the low pressure over Italy). Given that, I’m confident the UKMO would go on and build the Scandi high like the ECM does. 

703E6947-E609-4856-8C84-23A51FF934D2.png

B76ACDD4-35DC-4F8C-B78D-6B9A307CDDEB.png

Edited by Panayiotis
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