Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Matt H]

ECM 12z at t144 looks good. The Atlantic is struggling here!

[chionomaniac]

Lol.  ECM continues and increases the cold out to Thursday. Brilliant!

[Griff]

Delays at 144  

[That ECM]

@chionomaniac heights through the country up to scandi?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Frosty Winter said:

ECM 12z at t144 looks good. The Atlantic is struggling here!

could it be like GEM? with the Atlantic not making it past Ireland/Wales

[Man With Beard]

Ecm T144 ... I don't think this low is going to get here?

My forecast from earlier might need binning...

Edited February 5, 2021 by Man Without Beard

[bradymk]

Comparing ECM 120 to ydays 144 is a lovely sight. Better wedge to our north west, low less of a bowling ball and further west. Regardless of what follows on this run, good to see the ECM moving in this direction as Wednesday/Thurs has crept a day closer on the modelling.

[SLEETY]

uppers getting colder and colder ,could be ice days the whole week if this continues on ecm,amazing run.

 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

T144 is it good @nick sussex @bluearmy?? 

I expected a better day 6 chart from its day 5 . It’s better than the GFS but more energy needs to go se.

[ICE COLD]

Oh my days . Freezing Thursday added to the list

[Snowman.]

Atlantic low actually heads back west a little.

Sensational chart, little winds and deep cold in place still. Double digit negatives over the snow fields if the cloud clears

[Lukesluckybunch]

Expect it to be even colder at 168 the low out west has a negative tilt,indicating it will slide..just my opinion wait and see

[stokepa31]

4 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Ecm T144 ... I don't think this low is going to get here?

My forecast from earlier might need binning...

I agree. I keep thinking back to how powerful the 2018 beast was when it pushed through so quickly. Now its got some resistance I think we will see it stall the low fully but where..... 

Edited February 5, 2021 by stokepa31
Grammar

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I expected a better day 6 chart from its day 5 . It’s better than the GFS but more energy needs to go se.

Actually I preferred it. Gives more chance for heights to build north and suck in more cold air from the east!

[ICE COLD]

Freezing Friday added to the list

[Tim Bland]

ECM snow depth for Sunday eve..

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Ecm T144 ... I don't think this low is going to get here?

My forecast from earlier might need binning...

On the negative side, the ingestion of the warm runner into the Atlantic trough re invigorates it at a time when it could have disrupted se without that 

on the plus side, the Atlantic trough has lost contact with the upstream n American vortex which maintained linkage on the previous run 

[minus 9]

After ten years without posting much. Ecm you naughty boy. Great 144 chart for prolonging the cold.

[nick sussex]

Just now, Man Without Beard said:

Actually I preferred it. Gives more chance for heights to build north and suck in more cold air from the east!

With more energy going se you’d have an even better day 6 and 7 as the high would be further north . But still not bad , the cold is hanging on .

[Guest]

The Beast beats back Atlantic, low 850s still on Friday!

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the milder 850s might get in, eventually, however surfaces winds look more likely to be more southerly and off the continent as the ridge amplifies strongly close to the UK so conditions should remain cold at the surface.

progress from here could go in multiple directions, some dry and fine, some more beastly...

Edited February 5, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Snowman.]

Well the 168 chart could have been a lot better but that's FI and I'm not worried as the early trend is fantastic.

[WINTRY WALES]

But if the cold holds on as per the ECM won’t it be just dry if no front can even reach Ireland?

[chionomaniac]

Ecm vs gfs T+168

[Cloud 10]

Maybe a cold UK high coming on this run?