North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[Chris.R]

Well here we are then; time to get excited.

And the good news, WRF is working again on Meteociel. Had a brief look last night at the 18 Z and it was showing a strong precipitation signal on Saturday with snow on the back hedge and some pretty low thicknesses already by Saturday evening. Wow actually that’s tomorrow evening now. Amazing.

[severe snowstorm]

1 hour ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

W Lowland and coastal looking for scraps of ppn streaming over from the E. Not so according to 00z GFS as the front piles in from the SW. This is +150 Thursday.

Stalling front? 

That'll be the Midlands buried again then. 

[severe snowstorm]

12 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Well here we are then; time to get excited.

And the good news, WRF is working again on Meteociel. Had a brief look last night at the 18 Z and it was showing a strong precipitation signal on Saturday with snow on the back hedge and some pretty low thicknesses already by Saturday evening. Wow actually that’s tomorrow evening now. Amazing.

Yes, noticed that. Euro 4 has this as well. Euro 4 also shows a finger of rain/snow around Cheshire/Merseyside throughout tomorrow morning as well.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Dexter

[Joe Bloggs]

9 hours ago, hailseizertoo said:

As a proper lurker, and most definitely not as well informed as you guys, is it possible that A) the precipitation coming in Saturday daytime can stall or arrive later, whilst the colder air makes it's way over, or B) this colder air mass will arrive earlier than forecast, to help turn the rain to snow later on Saturday? 

Here's hoping. Stay safe guys.

I don’t think anyone responded to this! But as Chris says the 00z WRF helps to answer your question... Not widely supported at the moment but you never know!
  

[Weather-history]

A special weather anniversary today for the region, 25 years ago today, a great memorable weather event

 

[Chris.R]

Just looked at 0Z WRF and it shows an interesting event Saturday afternoon with rain turning to snow turning to rain then  to snow again. A bit of evaporative cooling would help a lot. Doesn’t show any precip at my locationSaturday morning but does show an air frost with an inversion above so if there is precip then chance of freezing rain.

[iand61]

8 hours ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

 

Thursday - in from the SW 

 

High risk high reward scenario for a battleground breakdown

 

Uppers look a tad low for Midlands south but ideal for areas further north including the snow starved North West.

as you say high risk but if the front doesn’t die a death which looks unlikely at this stage and the colder air up north doesn’t get pushed away then it’s all set up for for a good dumping, and not just for high ground.

long way out yet but fingers crossed and at least anything that falls does so on to frozen ground.

 

[chicken soup]

Mmmm.. Met office text forecast for Saturday.. I think they are sitting on the fence a bit.. They say just the word showers no mention of the word rain no mention of the word snow... Or am I just clutching at straws. 

[iand61]

1 minute ago, chicken soup said:

Mmmm.. Met office text forecast for Saturday.. I think they are sitting on the fence a bit.. They say just the word showers no mention of the word rain no mention of the word snow... Or am I just clutching at straws. 

I thought it was rain, turning to snow during the afternoon as the front pushes south followed by a frost as it clears through.

then all eyes turn to the east for what comes on Sunday and for the next four days at least.

Hopefully an interesting time coming up

[severe snowstorm]

4 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Mmmm.. Met office text forecast for Saturday.. I think they are sitting on the fence a bit.. They say just the word showers no mention of the word rain no mention of the word snow... Or am I just clutching at straws. 

There is a decent signal for snow tomorrow on a few models...

[severe snowstorm]

Still looking good on the metoffice text forecast. It seems that now things are coming from the East, they can drop the constant reference to 'wintry hazards' and 'wintry rain' and talk about 'snow'.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Snow showers and a risk of icy stretches on Sunday. Further scattered snow showers on Monday and Tuesday. Feeling bitterly cold in strong easterly winds.

 

[Troubleatmill]

29 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Uppers look a tad low for Midlands south but ideal for areas further north including the snow starved North West.

as you say high risk but if the front doesn’t die a death which looks unlikely at this stage and the colder air up north doesn’t get pushed away then it’s all set up for for a good dumping, and not just for high ground.

long way out yet but fingers crossed and at least anything that falls does so on to frozen ground.

 

ECM looks fantastic for our region next Thursday, sadly as is often the case it comes at the end of a cold spell rather than the beginning. Windy.com has the ECM precip in hourly increments which is handy

[dodge]

Not the most inspiring of charts considering by then we'll have braced 4 days of biting easterly winds... expecting occasional flurries here compared to the regular heavy falls the far south east will experience.  Still at least we'll hold onto the colder air longer than them, and there might be fireworks at the transition point.

Edited February 5, 2021 by dodge

[Joe Bloggs]

A few have mentioned ECM. It’s a brilliant run as it also introduces lower heights on the easterly flow - a signal for more organised snow hopefully penetrating over the Pennines. 
 

Not to mention an epic breakdown snow event for the NW. 
 

 

[Joe Bloggs]

1 minute ago, dodge said:

Not the most inspiring of charts considering by then we'll have braced 4 days of biting easterly winds... expecting occasional flurries here compared to the regular heavy falls the far south east will experience.  Still at least we'll hold onto the colder air longer than them, and there might be fireworks at the transition point.

I really really think the models are overplaying the role of the Pennines as a shower barrier. We see this often in an easterly setup. M6 east will see showers even if they are light. 
 

I’ll hold my hands up if I’m wrong. 

[raul_sbd]

Petagna was feeling confident of some showers yesterday for MCR area

[Joe Bloggs]

If we don’t get some showers from this I’d be gobsmacked, genuinely. 

lower heights from ECM I mentioned earlier... vvvvvv 

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

Well here we are then; time to get excited.

And the good news, WRF is working again on Meteociel. Had a brief look last night at the 18 Z and it was showing a strong precipitation signal on Saturday with snow on the back hedge and some pretty low thicknesses already by Saturday evening. Wow actually that’s tomorrow evening now. Amazing.

Oh great, what a massive downgrade, we only have a few plants and a tree in our garden.

People with hedges - Time to get excited!

People without - A massive downgrade!

[Day 10]

7 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

If we don’t get some showers from this I’d be gobsmacked, genuinely. 

lower heights from ECM I mentioned earlier... vvvvvv 

Totally agree.

[Day 10]

Hi @Frosty the Snowman @Beano & @Slidergate '17 I managed to sort my computer first thing.

Once I'd replaced the CMOS battery all that was required was another restart to re-set the start up settings, so all A OK.

Thanks.

[Day 10]

10 hours ago, hailseizertoo said:

As a proper lurker, and most definitely not as well informed as you guys, is it possible that A) the precipitation coming in Saturday daytime can stall or arrive later, whilst the colder air makes it's way over, or B) this colder air mass will arrive earlier than forecast, to help turn the rain to snow later on Saturday? 

Here's hoping. Stay safe guys.

Yes mate, there is a chance of that as shown here by the ECM.

[Chris.R]

18 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Oh great, what a massive downgrade, we only have a few plants and a tree in our garden.

People with hedges - Time to get excited!

People without - A massive downgrade!

Haha didn’t notice that one lol.

Well I had a hedge in the old house but not in this house so I’m f**ked.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Chris.R

[Manchester_Sunset]

8 years when I lived on Yorkshire  

[Manchester_Sunset]

 

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Haha didn’t notice that one lol.

Well I had a hedge in the old house but not in this house so I’m f**ked.

I'm gonna nip the garden center later and buy one