North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[Frosty the Snowman]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

I've missed most of the 'fun' in the model thread it would seem but I do get tired when I keep hearing this SE bias. I can understand some are edgy because the way this is setting up, a slight difference could literally mean they get rain instead of snow. There has been nothing wrong with those saying they hope the low is further south and east as that means a colder flow for everyone but the bias in me would prefer if the centre of the low was closer to the NW as that increases our chances of frontal snow however I would never say that in the model thread because that would be being bias IMBY. 

Lets not forget there is some excellent posters who do give fair analysis on there. 

Believe me that thread would be 10 times worst if there was significant downgrades. 

 

There's still time for significant downgrades. God forbid we get a repeat of one of those cancelled at 24 hours notice winters.... 

[Had Worse]

@Mapantzhas posted on the Yorkshire regional and said, 'Rather than moaning, press the Report button.'

 

[Kasim Awan]

51 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Fingers crossed for an M62 streamer. Kasim is our man for exploring this possibility. We’ll only have about 12 hours notice if it happens I’m sure. 

Well, the GFS18z would produce a similarly placed streamer to that night, the slightly lower and narrower elevation around the M62 definitely helps.

The slightly higher heights would mean a slightly tamed version of the 31st December 1996 streamer

All to play for !

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Had Worse said:

@Mapantzhas posted on the Yorkshire regional and said, 'Rather than moaning, press the Report button.'

 

I've personally never reported a post in my life because I simply do not believe in censorship. That's in spite of me receiving bile multiple times.

[Geordiesnow]

7 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

There's still time for significant downgrades. God forbid we get a repeat of one of those cancelled at 24 hours notice winters.... 

I'll be very surprised, the only downgrades will be if the mild sector is too close but for Northern areas, they should be in the cold air regardless. How cold all depends on the flow but - 10 seems be around the average which is more than cold enough. 

[More Runs Needed]

41 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

I don't think anyone intends to post with a bias in there anyway, it's just natural inclination not to know about how every minute set up affects each area. I couldn't tell you if a NW'ly has a bad or good strike rate in Surrey so a bit unfair to expect them to know easterlies aren't great in Liverpool. And I do have some sympathy with the ones who point out we have more snow than most up here as frankly we do

It does feel like each year it becomes more unreadable and biased towards the south, Although the majority of the UKs population would be down south 

[itsnowjoke]

2 hours ago, iand61 said:

You have to put your prediction in.

Sunny 30c

[Frosty the Snowman]

21 minutes ago, Snowqueen123 said:

Hi all hope we all get to see some snow this weekend and next week! the charts are looking great

Have you wandered into the wrong regional thread? There's the chance of a few dusting here and there and some snow in the hills across here. 

[Frosty the Snowman]

25 minutes ago, Snowqueen123 said:

I'm new here what's the problem?

The forthcoming cold spell is a easterly flow which means convection will need to survive the pennines in order to fall on half of this region - unfortunately it has a time and tested habit of not surviving that journey. 

[Frost HoIIow]

34 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

The forthcoming cold spell is a easterly flow which means convection will need to survive the pennines in order to fall on half of this region - unfortunately it has a time and tested habit of not surviving that journey. 

A weak easterly maybe but things are looking decent as of now. And I can't think of a time or a standout year when a good easterly failed this side of the hills. Maybe west of the M6 often misses out but east of this is usually good to go given the brisk winds associated with these synoptics often drive snow well over the Pennines.

[SnowWatcher2]

It looks like Christmas is coming...    

 

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

I'll be honest I watched the Met 10 day forecast earlier and seems it's only really the East that's going get anything. However it made me smile when he said he wouldn't be as cold as the 2018 BFTE. Seriously!!!!!.

The coldest we got in Stoke during that spell was around a normal Winter of minus 3. 

How would these Southern lot cope with the temps we had in 2010.

 

-15 IMBY early Jan 2010

[Andypvfc]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

-15 IMBY early Jan 2010

Yeah got to Manchester Airport to pick up 1 morning and it was minus 15, going down the A556 from Junction 19 of the M6

[Weather-history]

8 hours ago, Spah1 said:

The Great 2021 BFTE Snow Depth Prediction

 

Frosty the Snowman - Blackburn 15cm

Andypvfc - Cheshire 2cm

iand61 Bacup - 10-30cm

Snow Free Zone - 0cm

Joe Snow - Sandbach 4cm

Slidergate 17 Sale 2cm

Winter Hill - Horwich - 10cm

Chicken Soup - Blackburn - dusting 

William Glossop - 15cm

Osca31 - Brigrigg Cumbria- 1cm

Robbo - Hattersley - 8cm

Cheshire Snow - Northwich - 12cm

Chris78 - Preston - 1cm

Raul_sbd - Sale - 3cm

Thundersnow - Carlisle - 0.5 cm

Dy 10 - 5cm - Wirral 

SnowWatcher2 - High Crompton - 8cm

Face Like Thunder - Crewe - 0cm

Fellmike - Crewe - 2cm

ManchesterSunset - Stockport - 5cm

Swainclubber - Littleborough - 7cm

Mark Blackpool 2cm

Had Worse - Glossop - 19.05cm

Kasim - Buxton - 16cm

Hailseizertoo - Wavertree - 6cm

Dkeane3 - South Manchester - 3cm

JamesM - Saddleworth- 12cm

Jam2010 - north Manchester 4.5 cm

Captaincroc - Halmer End - 14cm

 

Deadline 5pm Thursday 

 

£5 to the Winner for a fish Supper! 

 

Final measurements on concrete 5pm Wednesday, allow for drifting - best guess. 

0.5cm for Irlam 

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 hours ago, Spah1 said:

The Great 2021 BFTE Snow Depth Prediction

 

Frosty the Snowman - Blackburn 15cm

Andypvfc - Cheshire 2cm

iand61 Bacup - 10-30cm

Snow Free Zone - 0cm

Joe Snow - Sandbach 4cm

Slidergate 17 Sale 2cm

Winter Hill - Horwich - 10cm

Chicken Soup - Blackburn - dusting 

William Glossop - 15cm

Osca31 - Brigrigg Cumbria- 1cm

Robbo - Hattersley - 8cm

Cheshire Snow - Northwich - 12cm

Chris78 - Preston - 1cm

Raul_sbd - Sale - 3cm

Thundersnow - Carlisle - 0.5 cm

Dy 10 - 5cm - Wirral 

SnowWatcher2 - High Crompton - 8cm

Face Like Thunder - Crewe - 0cm

Fellmike - Crewe - 2cm

ManchesterSunset - Stockport - 5cm

Swainclubber - Littleborough - 7cm

Mark Blackpool 2cm

Had Worse - Glossop - 19.05cm

Kasim - Buxton - 16cm

Hailseizertoo - Wavertree - 6cm

Dkeane3 - South Manchester - 3cm

JamesM - Saddleworth- 12cm

Jam2010 - north Manchester 4.5 cm

Captaincroc - Halmer End - 14cm

 

Deadline 5pm Thursday 

 

£5 to the Winner for a fish Supper! 

 

Final measurements on concrete 5pm Wednesday, allow for drifting - best guess. 

Crewe 1cm

[Weather-history]

6 hours ago, chicken soup said:

Totally agree with this.. Its at the point now were its become unreadable. 

 

7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

The SE bias in the MOD thread is unbelievable.

Perfectly acceptable for that lot to moan when it looks like snow will miss them yet you get jumped on if you happen to be from another region and state it doesn't look good for your patch. 

Pointed this hypocrisy out and get post deleted. Ho hum!

When I look in that thread now, I tend to scan the usernames to look  for those who I think give good analysis and bypass people who only post during the winter season, who don't live in this country, who start becoming swivelled eye over a possible easterly and prone to throwing toys out of the pram.....

[Miamay]

Im going for 0cm here in Liverpool 

[dodge]

Don't forget a rogue snow grain measures 0.01mm in height & could slip through the defenses lying undisturbed.  So I wouldn't quite go for 0cm even as far west as the end of Blackpool pier.

Despite my customary pessimism I'm expecting 4cm fingers crossed.  Mainly due to length of cold & minimum thaw.

[NickyB]

This would be nice

[The Northern Ramper]

“Stay on target”

[Joe Bloggs]

Morning all.

Just done my daily check of the models and I think the flow looks stronger and more unstable compared to yesterday. Also lasting longer. 

[severe snowstorm]

That's a belter of an update to the metoffice forecast:

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Cold and largely dry on Saturday although wintry showers are possible. Turning even colder with more frequent snow showers on Sunday and Monday, bringing a risk of ice. Bitter winds.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Thu 

[iand61]

16 minutes ago, NickyB said:

This would be nice

It would be once again the NW is picking up a quick sandwich while areas further south are enjoying a full blown banquet.

also that chart is for next weekend so I would imagine only getting a couple of cm of snow over 10 days of what could be a historical event won’t go down well in this region.

obviously the alignment of the shower streams may change so the next chart may look very different but as it stands, the north including Yorkshire look to be largely missing out.

all fingered are  

 

[Day 10]

8 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I've personally never reported a post in my life because I simply do not believe in censorship. That's in spite of me receiving bile multiple times.

No me neither.

[severe snowstorm]

6 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

A weak easterly maybe but things are looking decent as of now. And I can't think of a time or a standout year when a good easterly failed this side of the hills. Maybe west of the M6 often misses out but east of this is usually good to go given the brisk winds associated with these synoptics often drive snow well over the Pennines.

During November 2010, we got 8 inches of snow from the East in Stalybridge, so you are correct, it can be very decent. Not expecting those amounts where I live now, but there is a chance that everyone could see something significant during this spell.

 

 

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Dexter