North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[A Face like Thunder]

5 hours ago, Rain Lady said:

March always the most likely month for snow up here.  Another 6 weeks of winter potential.  One of the heaviest "spring" falls , albeit lasting only a day in the warm sunshine, was April 1st 1966.   Drifts which developed overnight were half way up the kitchen window.  Trees and bushes were weighed down.

 

Philip Eden quote: " 1st April 1966, some 30-35 cm of level snow fell over large parts of N Wales and NW England, severely disrupting transport". So there's hope for you snow-lovers yet, if not for those who continue to rely on public transport to get around!  

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Helm wind said:

Looks very much like this unexpected precipitation is going to split whilst drifting north and miss us. Pretty much sums up this winter! Can't believe we've been so close so many times, yet missed all of it this winter.

Yes lost count number of times fronts and bands of showers have either fizzled, done a u-turn or just come to a complete halt and taken a different direction as they head to the Cumbrian border from all directions of the compass.. tomorrow another case, fizzling front over us.. possibly about 10 times now! Why can't this be the case when rain is forecast!

[Helm wind]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes lost count number of times fronts and bands of showers have either fizzled, done a u-turn or just come to a complete halt and taken a different direction as they head to the Cumbrian border from all directions of the compass.. tomorrow another case, fizzling front over us.. possibly about 10 times now! Why can't this be the case when rain is forecast!

Wouldn't that be nice! Rain has no such problem but I can't recall a winter where, as you say, no matter what direction the snow is coming from, its never made it for one reason or another. So frustrating.

[trickydicky]

9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes lost count number of times fronts and bands of showers have either fizzled, done a u-turn or just come to a complete halt and taken a different direction as they head to the Cumbrian border from all directions of the compass.. tomorrow another case, fizzling front over us.. possibly about 10 times now! Why can't this be the case when rain is forecast!

It’s an annoying yet interesting point. Why do the hills here cause rain to intensify, yet seem to cause snow to dissipate? Why is rain always heavier on this side of the Pennines, and snow heavier on the other (not just in easterlies)? There must be a reason.

[SnowWatcher2]

Obviously going to change as such a long way off.. but seriously? The models don't even want to give us hope anymore, they're figuring out we have zero chance of snow

 

 

[Geordiesnow]

5 minutes ago, trickydicky said:

It’s an annoying yet interesting point. Why do the hills here cause rain to intensify, yet seem to cause snow to dissipate? Why is rain always heavier on this side of the Pennines, and snow heavier on the other (not just in easterlies)? There must be a reason.

Pretty simple, when rain comes in from the west, its hitting the hills and the winds help to increase the moisture. The air on the other side of the hills can sometimes be drier once the winds travels over them and at times compresses(so warms the air up in an fohn affect). Not every set up is the same and Atlantic systems can hit as hard as the west even in the east. 

Same process with the cold, it hits the hills and the air is much drier to the west in a cold dry wind so sucks alll the moisture out of it. Although there has been a little bit of snow att times, it was never going to amount to much. 

[trickydicky]

2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Pretty simple, when rain comes in from the west, its hitting the hills and the winds help to increase the moisture. The air on the other side of the hills can sometimes be drier once the winds travels over them and at times compresses(so warms the air up in an fohn affect). Not every set up is the same and Atlantic systems can hit as hard as the west even in the east. 

Same process with the cold, it hits the hills and the air is much drier to the west in a cold dry wind so sucks alll the moisture out of it. Although there has been a little bit of snow att times, it was never going to amount to much. 

So in an easterly the air is dryer to the west of the Pennines, and this prevents snowfall? It seems as well though that if we have cold over us and a front comes in from the west the snow is heavier in the east as well. Maybe it isn’t and I’m just imagining it.

Its noticeable in this easterly that the snow pretty much stops at the end of the western downslope of the Pennines. Where I am has just about managed a slight covering. Places a mile or two east have had a decent covering. Places further west nothing but a few flurries. 

[SnowWatcher2]

Well latest GFS run has just canceled winter for the foreseeable.. hope it doesn't pan out that way. 

[Joe Bloggs]

God it really is cold out there today. 
 

-1C/-8C at Manc Airport at 5pm. 

[James M]

Some great ice formations today at work. Proper winter scenes

[Joe Snow]

Late Feb 2019 Mk.2 anyone?  Some quite extreme swings in the output at the moment but the potential for a very mild spell is there and it’s the time of year that the south of the region can be milder than the south/ SE of England due to the Foehn effect locally 16-17c in Feb 2019 if I remember rightly. Still think we’ll see a sting in the tail to winter going into March though. 

Edited February 12, 2021 by Joe Snow

[severe snowstorm]

Both Manchester and Liverpool Airport TAFs highlighting possibility of light snow tomorrow afternoon.

[Garthvader]

Fed up now ....bring on the warmth!

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, trickydicky said:

It’s an annoying yet interesting point. Why do the hills here cause rain to intensify, yet seem to cause snow to dissipate? Why is rain always heavier on this side of the Pennines, and snow heavier on the other (not just in easterlies)? There must be a reason.

Beginning to think unless there is a trough feature an airstream between NW and SE will not deliver decent snow here.

Frontal/trough events between NW and SE into cold air are the main ticket, but usually precede milder air.. tomorrow is a kick in the teeth as we have ideal conditions but such a weak feature... 

[Rain Lady]

Pressure is still rising --!!    Seems the icy Scandi/ Siberian High is still in charge.   It's no wimp.   I can't imagine any quick switch to persistent mild wet murk.

It's been a very cold wintery day - thus -

"In the bleak midwinter
Frosty wind made moan
Earth stood hard as iron
Water like a stone"

Actually we are only just past midwinter as far as farming is concerned.  The old tradition, up here in the hills, is that a  farmer should have half the stored hay for the animals still untouched on Candlemas Day (Feb 2nd).    It could be a long time yet before the grass grows well.  We've become more used to extraordinary mild winters and summery springs.

[Dan B]

Well it hasn't got over 1C here today; the wind is absolutely bitter and the gardens are rock solid underfoot...

 

Seems we've a few more days of this then milder weather comes back...

 

TBH I'm ready for Spring to roll on; I've got loads to do in the back garden greenhouse and also need to dig a sink-away and fence the woods off at the back of us so I can get some chickens in there

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, Rain Lady said:

Pressure is still rising --!!    Seems the icy Scandi/ Siberian High is still in charge.   It's no wimp.   I can't imagine any quick switch to persistent mild wet murk.

It's been a very cold wintery day - thus -

"In the bleak midwinter
Frosty wind made moan
Earth stood hard as iron
Water like a stone"

Actually we are only just past midwinter as far as farming is concerned.  The old tradition, up here in the hills, is that a  farmer should have half the stored hay for the animals still untouched on Candlemas Day (Feb 2nd).    It could be a long time yet before the grass grows well.  We've become more used to extraordinary mild winters and summery springs.

Yes I posted about Candlemas Day marking the mid point of the country winter year. Still much winter to go in northern hilly territory at least, well into April severe frost and snowfall is common. There is an eagerness to throw off winter cloak come mid Feb but time and time again the cold often bites back through early Spring. March is often as wintry as December despite the longer daylight and strengthening sun. There is a lag effect, just as September often brings late summery weather. Mind there is no denying the change in feel through second half of February a shift in psyche towards a more Spring state, natural rhythm..

[iand61]

Just been clearing a bit more of the 3cm of snow partially covering the drive so I can get both cars on and although the  part immediately on the concrete is icy, the rest has the consistency of talcum powder and blows about as soon as it gets moved with the shovel.

At the top of the hill, the strong wind has been blowing the powder snow into drifts and partially blocked the main road over into Yorkshire at times today.

I do like a bit of drifting snow so it looks like a good excuse for a well wrapped up walk tomorrow morning before it all disappears again on Sunday

 

[Geordiesnow]

I'm certainly of the opinion that the milder weather that is forecast is most welcomed. Sure if cold is in the forecast then great but I'm not the biggest fan of cold weather with barely any snow or a frost that is not visable because of the driness of the air. 

Potential there for a significant milder spell but for the time being, looks likely to be low double digits with an interchangeable outlook but nothing too wet.

[Slidergate '17]

That wind is picking up indeed!

One word sums it up nicely.... Windchill 

[iand61]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

I'm certainly of the opinion that the milder weather that is forecast is most welcomed. Sure if cold is in the forecast then great but I'm not the biggest fan of cold weather with barely any snow or a frost that is not visable because of the driness of the air. 

Potential there for a significant milder spell but for the time being, looks likely to be low double digits with an interchangeable outlook but nothing too wet.

Nothing too wet sounds good with milder temperatures on offer.

Selfishly I’ll be happy if we miss the rain from all points of the compass like we did with the snow and have a good few months of mainly dry conditions, the ground certainly needs to dry out.

[Had Worse]

Just been out to the shop and it was blowing an icy gale with a few flakes of snow.

Yet another day with snow falling (Just)

[severe snowstorm]

9 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I'm certainly of the opinion that the milder weather that is forecast is most welcomed. Sure if cold is in the forecast then great but I'm not the biggest fan of cold weather with barely any snow or a frost that is not visable because of the driness of the air. 

Potential there for a significant milder spell but for the time being, looks likely to be low double digits with an interchangeable outlook but nothing too wet.

The problem is that 'milder' weather in winter often comes accompanied by damp/wet periods of weather and I'd sooner it was cold and dry - much better for outdoor activities. The outlook is anything but dry for this region over the coming week with periods of wet weather at times according to the metoffice forecast. Going to miss the weather we've had this week for sure.

[dodge]

I think this low humidity cold easterly has striped all the moisture out of the ground.  Most of muddy areas have been frozen over.  Everywhere rock solid, hard to imagine the ground being saturated & wet again but I'm sure by the end of Sunday we'll be back to normal northern dampness 

[severe snowstorm]

5 minutes ago, dodge said:

I think this low humidity cold easterly has striped all the moisture out of the ground.  Most of muddy areas have been frozen over.  Everywhere rock solid, hard to imagine the ground being saturated & wet again but I'm sure by the end of Sunday we'll be back to normal northern dampness 

Yeah, everything is rock solid, but don't worry, normal service will be resumed when the rain returns during next week and I'm sure everything will soon turn to muddy bog again in no time.