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North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Garswood, Merseyside
  • Location: Garswood, Merseyside

    So, a weather front is going to fizzle out on Saturday before it gets here because the air is too cold. Then on Sunday rain is going to make it, slight chance of 'freezing rain' in the latest Met Office video but their graphics showed rain away from high ground. In terms of this debate about the Met Office they may bring in an 'ice' warning at some point I guess. This is where we're upto as of now no doubt there's room for change. 

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    I had to get out before the sun melted it all. 

    Some brilliant walking conditions this morning apart from the sheer depth of snow, almost a foot fell here last night and not a Met O warning in site. made for some good photographs though, altho

    Heaviest single fall of snow for several years here and the heaviest in April since 1981.  

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
    2 minutes ago, Dexter said:

    In that case, why not just issue the warning when an event has started each time? That way they can be 100% sure it's warranted and will face no backlash.......

    The warning is not a guarantee that the event will occur, hence the matrix. I would like to know how the fact it was issued yesterday and adjusted today has caused anyone any inconvenience or hardship? 

    ? My post doesn't say put the warning out as the event happens.

    3 days was too early however and it will have made no difference if they had just put it out today

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    Posted
  • Location: Norden, Rochdale approx 200m asl
  • Location: Norden, Rochdale approx 200m asl

    With what looks like a damp squib ending to what could possibly be the last cold act of the season I'd have to say its been a disappointing winter. Disappointing in that the potential, here at least, hasn't been realised. OK it's been cold and we've had possibly 25 days when snow has fallen (not been counting) but it could have been so much better with a bit more luck. The 2 wet inches on the back of that storm was the most we managed in one go. The other 24 falls of snow added together wouldn't even amount to 2 inches. Perhaps expectations here are too high these days. Its great to see others have done so well. Must be quite a local issue as this photo from today is only 10 mins from me near Edenfield. Like a different world compared to the snow desert here. 

    20210211_120244.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn
    17 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

    Anyway....

    Just look at the afternoons ICON. A band of snow makes it to Ireland then fades as it reaches the NW. It's virtually impossible to get frontal snowfall here.

    Totally agree.. Its like I said the other day.. The region is cursed.. Its the only explanation.. Just can't possibly be as unlucky as we are time and time again. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
    10 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

    Totally agree.. Its like I said the other day.. The region is cursed.. Its the only explanation.. Just can't possibly be as unlucky as we are time and time again. 

    The slider went into the Midlands

    The band when it did arrive gave Yorkshire 6 inch too warm here. 

    The Amber warning was a bust 

    The BFTE wasn't potent enough

    Saturdays front won't reach. 

    So it seems NW marginal showers are the only way. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL

    I think our best chance is Saturday's front getting further into our region than the charts suggest Looks way to mild by Sunday night ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL

    Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

    Cloudy on Saturday, then some light snow to the west overnight. Windy with snow and freezing rain for a time on Sunday, before turning to rain later. Milder by Monday.

    Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Thu 11 Feb 2021

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
    1 minute ago, BlackburnChris said:

    Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

    Cloudy on Saturday, then some light snow to the west overnight. Windy with snow and freezing rain for a time on Sunday, before turning to rain later. Milder by Monday.

    Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Thu 11 Feb 2021

    There's some interest then

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms and stormy weather
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
    15 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

    ? My post doesn't say put the warning out as the event happens.

    3 days was too early however and it will have made no difference if they had just put it out today

    I didn't say you did. I was just emphasising the point that there is no 100% guarantee that it will pan out as expected until it happens. Issuing a warning 3 days in advance with the risk matrix is exactly the right thing to do in my eyes and I've yet to hear the disadvantages suffered by anyone as a result of them doing this. It simply allows people to prepare and have contingency plans, just in case. 

    Anyway, we'll probably just have to agree to disagree.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: wigan
  • Location: wigan

    Well thanks for the talks this winter. But truly I'm fed up with so many conflicting forecasts. Of which netwesther is one. BBC reckon snow most of day west of Manchester, before Sunday comes. But netwesther shows quite the opposite, with no snow symbols showing in Lancashire. There is no met office warnings for any snow in N West. Goes to show computers and too many cooks in the kitchen create one hell of a mess leading to in a innaurate forecasts even with only 18 hours to go. It's been fun, but for us, it's been half inch or so in Wigan through out the winter. Maybe I need to move!!!! See you all next year  🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
    11 minutes ago, Dexter said:

    I didn't say you did. I was just emphasising the point that there is no 100% guarantee that it will pan out as expected until it happens. Issuing a warning 3 days in advance with the risk matrix is exactly the right thing to do in my eyes and I've yet to hear the disadvantages suffered by anyone as a result of them doing this. It simply allows people to prepare and have contingency plans, just in case. 

    Anyway, we'll probably just have to agree to disagree.

     

     

    What's the disadvantage putting it out today for the first time?

    Edited by Spah1
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    Posted
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snowy. Summer: Warm/gentle breeze. Anytime: thunderstorms/gales.
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.

    Can anyone think of incidents of un-forecasted snow, (eg a battleground set-up in which mild/rain was wrongly forecast to easily win). Just pondering...

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms and stormy weather
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
    4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

    What's the disadvantage putting it out today?

    The earlier it is issued, the more time that those who could be affected have to plan/prepare or have contingencies, but this has to be a balance obviously because if they did this 7 days in advance, they would probably constantly be issuing warnings given model outputs. At 3 days away from an event, confidence becomes higher in the outcome, but this is where the matrix comes in so that they can advise on the level of confidence and people can make a judgement accordingly. I honestly don't see the inconvenience it has caused by issuing 3 days in advance, rather than 2. It has simply given those who really need it time to prepare.

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
    30 minutes ago, Dexter said:

    The earlier it is issued, the more time that those who could be affected have to plan/prepare or have contingencies, but this has to be a balance obviously because if they did this 7 days in advance, they would probably constantly be issuing warnings given model outputs. At 3 days away from an event, confidence becomes higher in the outcome, but this is where the matrix comes in so that they can advise on the level of confidence and people can make a judgement accordingly. I honestly don't see the inconvenience it has caused by issuing 3 days in advance, rather than 2. It has simply given those who really need it time to prepare.

    Like you say we will agree to disagree. 

    Move on

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    33 minutes ago, snowdrifter said:

    Can anyone think of incidents of un-forecasted snow, (eg a battleground set-up in which mild/rain was wrongly forecast to easily win). Just pondering...

    Think Feb '94 was, was great here anyway

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 hour ago, BlackburnChris said:

    I think our best chance is Saturday's front getting further into our region than the charts suggest Looks way to mild by Sunday night ...

    Our best chance will come from Greenland blocking around early March IMO. March 2006 NW'ly gave us a few cm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
    11 hours ago, Weather-history said:

    Interesting variations, I reckon it has been the snowiest winter around here since 2009-10 and the best winter in terms of wintriness since the cold winter cluster of 2008-13.

     

    I fully agree that for some it’s been the best for a good few years and TBH I’m not saying it’s been poor here.

    We’ve probably had more days with falling and lying snow since Christmas than any winter since the 80’s and there’s been plenty of frosts but what I am saying is that it could have been so much better if luck had been on our side.

    so far we’ve been either too far north, south and west on multiple occasions and it’s looking more and more likely that we are now going to be too far East for the weekend’s snowy breakdown although probably not for the milder air and rain that will follow later.

    obviously in parts of Scotland it has been quite severe over the last week or so and even in the NW some have seen the best snow conditions for a good few years but even with the coldest night north of the border for 30 years, it’s not a winter that will live long in my memory.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sandbach, South Cheshire 65m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat, thunderstorms and winter snow
  • Location: Sandbach, South Cheshire 65m ASL

    Overlooked in the chase for another cold spell  perhaps is the potential for freezing rain for some on Sunday. Very disruptive and at times very dangerous but also hard to forecast too. Met Office seemed concerned about the freezing rain risk in their latest weekend forecast. Don't know about you but if we can't get some half decent snow I would welcome a taste of spring some are seeing for late this month. March is a bipolar month at the best of times though mid spring one day and mid winter the next and can often be colder and snowier than December any snow just doesn't stick around as long. Spring may pay a fleeting visit but winter I don't think is done with us just yet it just doesn't seem the type of year. 

    Edited by Joe Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
    7 hours ago, Day 10 said:

    Depressing!

    747480411_Screenshot_2021-02-11Winter202021chatrampsmoansandbanter.thumb.png.7670dc794a95e16bc730e2327ec067a6.png

    Back this eve to give my thoughts on the weekend and the Winter so far before taking a break from it all.

    Well that just about sums up what I am thinking about this winter and I live in a white area.

    the only surprise though is a lack of white across north Wales.

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    Big ice pellet risk before any rain/freezing rain. Ice pellets lower down freezing rain higher up. Sunday a bit like 25th Jan 2013.

    Still think wait for Saturday and there maybe some surprises.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    17 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:

    Overlooked in the chase for another cold spell  perhaps is the potential for freezing rain for some on Sunday. Very disruptive and at times very dangerous but also hard to forecast too. Met Office seemed concerned about the freezing rain risk in their latest weekend forecast.

    I saw that but that only begs the question for me, why was the warning cancelled or not updated?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
    2 hours ago, Spah1 said:

    Anyway....

    Just look at the afternoons ICON. A band of snow makes it to Ireland then fades as it reaches the NW. It's virtually impossible to get frontal snowfall here. 

    It used to happen every winter though, just like heavy snow from an easterly was pretty much guaranteed around here.

    What was different back then I don’t know but the region hasn’t moved and the Pennines are still in the same place so it must be a warming climate or just years of continuous bad luck.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
    27 minutes ago, iand61 said:

    Well that just about sums up what I am thinking about this winter and I live in a white area.

    the only surprise though is a lack of white across north Wales.

    Yeah the showers really struggled to get over here and when they did then went West over the North Wales coast instead. 

    Think we did better last BFTE in the south of the region because of the trough going through and the temps being 1 or 2 degrees cooler overall made a big differences to melting. 

    Wonder whether the better direction is ESE for Wales and Cheshire instead as showers don't have to cross the Pennines. The obvious problem with that wind direction is the notorious rain shadow over Manchester. 

    Edited by Summerstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    33 minutes ago, iand61 said:

    Well that just about sums up what I am thinking about this winter and I live in a white area.

    the only surprise though is a lack of white across north Wales.

    I agree winter not done yet, has a 2013, 2018, 2006, 2001, 1996 feel, all saw cold snowy weather in March.

    Indeed as you say March often snowier than December especially first half, northerlies and easterlies far more likely from mid Feb onwards than any other stage of the winter.

    A word on Saturday, BBC app shows the front making into west half of region at least, every chance it might edge further east than forecast.. they are not sure about amounts in Wales and SW Scotland which suggests to me they are not sure about its behaviour.

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    Posted
  • Location: Oldham, Gtr Manchester
  • Location: Oldham, Gtr Manchester

    Well they say 'it's the hope that kills you'...thankfully this far east in the region I have zero hope for anything wintry reaching here from the west on Saturday.  Good luck to our western dwellers, hope the frontal band is progged further east than currently showing and you get what you haven't from this week long easterly....a bit of snow.

    Here...well we've had a few dustings here and there but nothing special.  What an easterly does deliver is some pretty impressive cold...and we've certainly had that this week.  Just a shame it's not going out without a crash, bang, wallop.

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