Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[rdt123]

06z looks really interesting for anywhere in the east. Looks like days of radar watching. With little thaw the whole of eastern England could see a gradual build up much like 2018 where we had no frontal activity but 6 inches after a few days of showers. Charts like these but not in FI? Eh?

[MJB]

60h 

72h

84h

93h

102 h

Impressive 

 

[Packs]

Yes @MJB looking like a good 10-20cm for most hopefully by Thursday

[Purga]

A much better elongated shape to the approaching LP on the 06z

00z                                                                   06z

   

[Matt Jones]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

UKMO looks good to me. Nothing marginal about those uppers for Lincolnshire ! Winds will vary from NE, E , SE but once the cold is set in all that will do is vary the shower distribution. I like the angle of attack at the end of the week as well..

I agree from Monday uppers are good for snow just think the snowfall will not be as widespread, depends where any streamers align. Angle of attack looks good too, although in my 17 years in this location I have not known any battleground situation from the SW bring snow, either too far south or the cold uppers get mixed out before precipitation gets here. Probably a different story if we had colder air than projected in place to begin with, like say feb91.

[Ice Day]

Look how the 6z is losing the dartboard low in the Atlantic seen on the 0z at 150, and disrupting and stretching it more. This will help it slide more and keep the bitter air in.

  

I really think this is going to be the direction of travel and the breakdown maybe a fair way off.  We're on the cusp folks! 

[Drifter]

2 minutes ago, Packs said:

Yes @MJB looking like a good 10-20cm for most hopefully by Thursday

Looks like the result of a Thames streamer. 

[radiohead]

Here comes the battleground

[rdt123]

i love the 6z - after 15 years on here its amazing to see something this rare actually happen - id have preferred next year though - going to make a serious mess of the vaccine rollout  - may set us back over a week

[tight isobar]

Streamer gate... the gift that keeps on giving from Sunday!!! @rolling convection! One can only guess at accumulated ground depths by early nxt week!!  Yet more tweaks >upgrades this morning!@easterly incursion.

[Notty]

Incoming for Thursday. Just need the LP to dump the snow and slide off SE

[Methuselah]

Some simply stonking charts, this morning: GFS 06Z @T+120:

    

But, I'm still nae going to entirely dismiss the possibility of less-cold air coming up from the SSE -- I can recall numerous occasions in which 'entrenched cold' has simply melted away, sometimes with as little as only 12 hours' notice. Only time will tell?

Meanwhile, lets just enjoy it!

[sheikhy]

Each run just keeps on giving!!!!

[That ECM]

Further south.

[tight isobar]

Looking for the breakdown is pointless.. as when the flow is inbound... the models may start to look a whole lot different going forwards.. cold spell this... not a snap!!!

Edited February 4, 2021 by tight isobar

[kold weather]

Decent snow event on the GFS 06z on Thursday.

Some ways off though yet obviously, though it is worth noting that GEM, ECM and GFS have all been pretty consistent in advertising an attack from the SW at some point late next week.

Thats not to say it will make it in, but it is a possible evolution.

Before that point the GFS is bringing in a decent amount of snow, first frontal snow on Sunday and then as the front degenerates this turns into more showery areas of snow with probably embedded snow streamers in the usual locations forming as well.

[Notty]

LP stopped in it's tracks

[Tim Bland]

Disruptive levels of snow in parts of East Anglia by Tuesday. Some rural parts could be cut off ! I bet There are not many snow ploughs in this part of the country!

[rug]

9 minutes ago, MJB said:

60h 

72h

84h

93h

102 h

Impressive 

 

Beautiful! I have EVERYTHING crossed!!!

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Each run just keeps on giving!!!!

An absolute stonker of a run for eastern and especially south eastern areas.

An absolute stinker for here

Don’t expect models to be fully picking up on the shower risk though.

Edited February 4, 2021 by MattStoke

[radiohead]

Just now, Notty said:

LP stopped in it's tracks

Yes, the low is weaker and further west than on the 0Z. It's a small secondary low that spins up and crashes in on Thursday, but that will probably be gone on the next run.

[ITSY]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Disruptive levels of snow in parts of East Anglia by Tuesday. Some rural parts could be cut off ! I bet There are not many snow ploughs in this part of the country!

Agreed. Particularly rural Norfolk and Suffolk - looks like a really amazing setup there. But these two models show a reasonable difference in terms of depth and the westward/northward scope of the snow. I keep saying this not to cast a downer but just to keep marginal folks like me grounded!  

[nick sussex]

Three important aspects of the GFS 06 hrs run .

The PV over in Canada is slower to eject eastwards , the slower the better because that will delay any feeding of energy into the upstream troughing.

You see that shortwave heading sw from west of Norway that doesn’t engage the upstream troughing , it meanders slowly sw but then shifts east ne.

That mustn’t make contact as that could also energize that troughing.

The GFS also develops a more distinct Scandi wedge .

So all three aspects combine here.

Edited February 4, 2021 by nick sussex

[Nick F]

Looking quite snowy for the SE and E Anglia on Sunday from the fronts wrapping around the low on the near continent. Snow showers for the east the name of the game after that.

Looking further ahead on 06z GFS - the 'warm' sector running east ahead of the fairly deep low in the Atlantic being shoved south into France on Thursday, very cold air entrenched over UK with DPs even in the south still below freezing Thursday, though creeping above 0C early Friday in far south. But that's long way off, so could see further corrections south of the attempt to bring in milder air, so UK staying in very cold air all week a good possibility!

Edited February 4, 2021 by Nick F

[DAVE_ALLEN]

5 minutes ago, Purga said:

A much better elongated shape to the approaching LP on the 06z

00z                                                                   06z

   

GFS has been developing that Scandi High over recent runs. Any stronger and it will start to exert greater influence over the deep low in the atlantic. And that in turn I suspect will remain in situ and possible spit out a s/w which will most likely head down towards the NW coast of France.. Following this trend with interest