Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

Recommended Posts

Hammer Aficionado

Hammer

Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Icon further west and south with the low at only 48 hours!!!!

At T60 on Icon low over Cornwall on 12z it was over Wales.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
58 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’m not great at reading these,  but the below (for the south east) suggests there are some options re a more prolonged cold spell

CFFB8449-75E3-4C4B-9521-D19100FA12B5.png

What is noteworthy is the possibility of 4 or 5 ice days in a row, in a location like Chelmsford. Feb 1991?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Phil Blake Aficionado

Phil Blake

Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

the table is v large beyond next Thursday ........

Is that v large table for your v large envelope of options. I actually think everything could be on the table post thursday. But with more blocking across the Arctic we could have further incursions of wintry hazards going through February and into march but you'll always have times when the milder air makes its way into the UK.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
SqueakheartLW Accomplished

SqueakheartLW

Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
Posted

My update for the 12z GFS and 12z GEM

12z GFS

After the GFS has generally saved itself today after the bad day yesterday is the 12z along the same lines or has it performed another downgrade of sorts. The peak of the cold spell on this run is at 102 hours away so definitely getting closer now.

image.thumb.png.1642fa46f4c6288f87a97d0c8f27871f.pngimage.thumb.png.d90369041a03ea8494a45ea2b45d09d5.pngimage.thumb.png.dd8250be446026dc810204e968e4d35f.png

One thing I have to admire about the GFS recently is the consistency of the average easterlies at the peak of this cold spell right from when I started to do updates on the cold spell and the 12z is no exception to this. The 850hpa temperature average for the 12z is -9.2 which is -7.2 below the long term mean. A slight downgrade of 0.7 from the 06z but a bigger anomaly compared to it so on balance roughly the same in the end. The anomaly chart shows those deep blues once more over the UK.

12z GEM

How is the GEM 12z faring in comparison to its 00z run and also the GFS. The peak of the cold spell on 12z GEM comes at 138 hours away, a bit later than GFS but has a bit more of a build up to the cold spell. The 850hpa temperature average on the 12z comes in at a decent -9.7 at the peak which is -6.3 below the long term mean and an upgrade of -0.8 compared with the 00z. At least I can end with that decent upgrade.

General Summary of recent GFS, GEM and GFS Extended Runs

Below I have created a table of sorts showing all of the peak cold spell 850hpa temperatures since I started these analysis and summaries of each run and what they are showing for the colder spell

Daily averages    GFS 4 runs                       GFS Av        GEM 2 runs  GEM Av    GFS Extended 1 Run    OVERALL AV
                              00z    06z   12z     18z                           00z  12z                          00z                                                           
Fri 29th Jan         -7.8    -8.0   -8.5    -8.9       -8.30                   -7.8        -7.80         -6.6                                 -7.57
Sat 30th Jan        -8.8    -9.0   -9.1    -8.8       -8.93          -6.6   -6.5       -6.55         -7.8                                 -7.76
Sun 31st Jan       -9.3    -9.8   -9.5    -9.5       -9.53          -6.7   -6.9       -6.80         -8.8                                  -8.38
Mon 1st Feb       -10.4  -9.0   -8.3    -7.0       -8.68          -9.0   -9.1       -9.05         -9.3                                  -9.01
Tue 2nd Feb       -6.5    -7.0   -6.8    -8.7       -7.25          -8.6   -9.0       -8.80         -10.4                                -8.82
Wed 3rd Feb       -8.5   -9.9   -9.2                 (-9.20)        -8.9    -9.7      -9.30         -6.5                                  (-8.33)
RUN AVERAGES  -8.55 -8.78 -8.57 (-8.58)    N/A           -7.96 -8.17     N/A         -8.23                                  N/A

Figures in brackets are the average for the figures given so far in a day or runs but are not the final figure as that day or set of runs isn't complete for that run or day.

As can be seen above for completed days or runs the GFS peaked the cold on average on Sunday 31st January with an average cold peak across all 4 runs of -9.53. The GEM has had its average peak so far today in fact at -9.30 and GFS Extended had its best day yesterday with its impressive -10.4.

The overall best day so far has been Monday 1st February's runs with an overall model average of -9.01 at 850hpa.

You can also see which run has been best within the GFS and GEM. The 06z GFS has averaged out coldest so far at -8.78 whilst the 12z GEM has been colder on average at -8.17

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Garthvader Enthusiast

Garthvader

Posted
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl
Posted
Just now, Phil Blake said:

Is that v large table for your v large envelope of options. I actually think everything could be on the table post thursday. But with more blocking across the Arctic we could have further incursions of wintry hazards going through February and into march but you'll always have times when the milder air makes its way into the UK.

Im hoping the atlantic does come in at some point as models are showing maybe bringing a little snow for us in the north tgat dont really benefit (snow wise) from easterlies!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Malarky Aficionado

Malarky

Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham
Posted
Just now, Garthvader said:

Im hoping the atlantic does come in at some point as models are showing maybe bringing a little snow for us in the north tgat dont really benefit (snow wise) from easterlies!

It'll definitely come in at some point...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Popular Post
Posted
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon clears the low faster, which brings the easterly in earlier, now just 72 hours away!

Still scope for short term improvements

iconnh-0-72 (1).png

iconnh-0-78.png

@TEITSwas mentioning this in his previous posts I think ? 

  • Like 9
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted
8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yeh a big shift if you ask me!!!!

Does that risk taking the snow too far south and leaving us in just cold easterlies!!!???

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters T192-T240:

80BD0E70-6EDF-4458-92A4-30AC71A558B3.thumb.png.23f1ac26977a752c5f98f003587cc300.png

Which would you kick out of bed for farting?   They all have promise...

Any which give me less than 24 hours of lying snow, which i haven't seen here (Horsham, Sussex) since 2013....

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Eps 12z 500s /850s the Atlantic will have a hard time punching through.. and already being pushed bk somewhat via dynamics.  Almost certainly in the borders of a notable spell here!!! .. and n-hemispheric says spring will be a very long time coming.... over to the offy run ?‍♂️ @18z gfs ya want winter proper.. ya wish is commanded....

01EBDB9E-E90C-40AF-9077-8659C6C4D691.png

43006716-9024-4CBD-8F34-11D3558DDF88.png

7FB37ABB-6A3E-48BF-9F7B-E0722D346033.png

014A85AC-861A-4B3B-8D33-803A8E0E36DD.png

651E9F5E-DD93-438D-B056-75012DB909C2.png

573093A5-A36F-4CCE-9E5A-44CFFDAC1D9B.png

AEAE8D7A-3DBF-4E02-872F-4A43C06C1ED1.png

E9CFE1C6-D6D8-4E3B-B628-3CA911C6FBA1.png

E9017F40-4A55-4497-9DED-AD082C74F173.png

559FA0B3-6CB7-404C-8583-3DE1956F3432.png

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Popular Post
Posted

You know that we’re in a good position when charts like this don’t produce 10 pages of new posts anymore. Nearly there, the final countdown is definitely on now.

7BEC77BE-B9B2-4CAC-847E-D91399EEA924.thumb.png.b30ed926cc1e56bac01a345dd3bca6a9.pngC7DB7B47-CBD9-4630-B17B-6B186D5C5304.thumb.png.f46c9f891583a544e981e823b0ef4a1d.png

 

  • Like 14
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon gives a lot of snow for east anglia and the south east on Sunday...

B19213E1-58FF-4A64-ADB0-4140C64B7804.png

EEB66081-426A-4831-95C0-11EE3910DE0B.png

E7DFC0C8-11D8-4E3D-9D40-3FAD610AE7B0.png

After all the panic over the last 48 from the southeasterners!!there you go there was no need lol!!

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sweatyman Seasoned

Sweatyman

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

After all the panic over the last 48 from the southeasterners!!there you go there was no need lol!!

itll be gone next run

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

@strictly for fun purposes.. the eps snow totals @euro window... .  @ winters coming!!!@randomly date selected)

DE9022C3-A16E-4C05-8926-CFE23C178FC2.png

D1350C31-F505-4E4F-BA96-ECBD88971389.png

4A7C9350-6283-4009-B451-BDE6878C0721.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Arctic heights are being downgraded and shunted W at a rate of knots

image.thumb.png.9b0116e116afef83cd6650bf55db296f.png

 

This is perhaps why we are seeing the modelling letting the Atlantic back in next week. Remember just a couple of days ago we saw Greenland blocking bolstered by Pacific ridging cutting into the Arctic.

You can see the difference between runs here

12z-

image.thumb.png.118a638d70f6a11288be3d49985c6e3d.png

 

 

 

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Speedbird Community Regular

Speedbird

Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
Posted
4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

After all the panic over the last 48 from the southeasterners!!there you go there was no need lol!!

much more southward movement and it'll become a Kent clipper

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
NewEra21 Seasoned

NewEra21

Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
Posted
4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

After all the panic over the last 48 from the southeasterners!!there you go there was no need lol!!

The way it's going currently no one will see snow from that low, it'll be so far south into the channel and northern France

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, NewEra21 said:

The way it's going currently no one will see snow from that low, it'll be so far south into the channel and northern France

That will only aid convection as the easterly develops.. its win win win.....

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
The Beast From The East Community Regular

The Beast From The East

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

much more southward movement and it'll become a Kent clipper

Or a calais clipper

Edited by The BEAST From The East
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Lol it's one model and one run  CC you seem desperate to end this before its started .

Take the lead from the MET , they know more than everyone on here put together 

Edited by MJB
  • Like 37
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
NewEra21 Seasoned

NewEra21

Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
Posted
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

That will only aid convection as the easterly develops.. its win win win.....

Very true, also allows the colder 850s to spread south quicker with it out of the way!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...