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Just a quick one, locations should now be displaying on posts if you're on a mobile. 🙂 

News just in ! The Crunchy Snow and Ice Day Committee will be meeting at 7pm .  On the agenda . Depth of cold and likely duration . Frontal snow prospects . Chances of a prope

We should all sit back and forget about snowfall, breakdown of cold spell and marvel at the N Hemisphere chart at only +48. I have lost count how many times I have drooled at +384 charts but even thos

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    20 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Yep understood , fortunately it will change from today’s run I was just relieved it didn’t implode completely Tbh . Let’s see what the Ens say .

    I wouldn’t worry to much about snow in south east when we Get to  weekend it could look very different still lots of changes to come snow predictions anyway 😁

    Edited by Scandinavian High.
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    And all over for the southern half by day 10.. actually thought it was go to extend the cold longer around 192 but in the end the mildness came in little earlier.

    i think I have to say that today’s modelling peaked for the south after this mornings ECM.. GFS has pretty much faffed around each run only to get back to where it was overnight.. UKM good but not execellant and ECM from a very high bench has trended the wrong way..

    For the midlands and north it’s all good you have that extra latitude that helps.. and have plenty of wiggle room for any more corrections northwards...

    image.thumb.png.9c378ccf3878b9c8821560cf9d07a337.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    22 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

    Absolutely dreadful run for the South and SE of the country that have already put up with the most torturous winter in living memory. A bit like myself supporting Spurs- we're always nearly but never quite enough. There was so much promise at the start of the season but the runs of the last 2 days are mirroring Spurs current form.

    I hope the low is modelled a couple hundred miles further south in future runs so we can finally see some of the white stuff but unlikely IMO

     

    If I was living Midlands northwards I'd be delighted with this winter but also hoping other areas got in on the act too so we can all have a memorable winter, but knowing our luck the pattern will be more favourable in Spring as is often the case here.

    Bugger all for Brum there mate! Looks rubbish but i know shouldn't be believed! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    EPS 120 takes low further east evidently that’s better for areas further south and east....

    FE7A8A53-CB53-4559-A92C-095BA9046D02.thumb.png.fd62d96aaba55066d5afbd77c42f058b.pngF766DFFE-D33C-4C41-B1A7-99652D96822D.thumb.png.32554e04c3bcb318e74f310f7bb8847c.png

    What is EPS please ? Same as GFS mean maybe? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    12 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

    The remaining southern areas should see a good few hours of heavy snow finally by day 9. Although a thaw may follow quickly on its heels. If only this could reorientate a little more ESE, it could be very snowy indeed.  

    Screenshot 2021-02-02 at 18.55.42.pngp

    Plenty of time for that and quite likely with the cold air in place.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    The thing with this type of set-up is we are sadly probably to see quite a sharp line between the areas that get utterly dumped on and the areas that broadly remain green apart from maybe some snow showers.

    Regardless of the modelled set-up, broadly:

    North of the LP core - lots of convection, flow  from north sea= good convection

    South of the LP core - less convection due to airflow drying out over land = weaker convection and less snow.

    This is regardless of the modelled set-up and basically will be uniform across the models other than obviously the GFS.

     

    And if it all moves south a bit or north then the areas will change. You’re clearly skilled at analysis but this would be best left until t72 probably t48. Once Dorset had meto red warning for snow. It got taken down 3 hours before the event. The heavy disruptive snow made a semi circle around us. Nearly over it now😩🤣 but the point being let’s see closer to the time. 
     

    As I say though, like your analysis.😄👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Just taken a look at the ensembles and there is no support whatsoever with how mild the 850s get on the 8th of feb in the midlands!!big outloer around that time!

    Can you please post the chart 

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    29 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Yeah its cold enough on the ECM.

    Bigger problem is it will be much drier for the south on this run, probably south of the Wash-Liverpool there'd be very little snowfall if the 12z ECM is right. Probably will be some, but its going to be modest at best.

    PS - this is not just me 'looking at the models, etc' - this is also based on experience of convection in winter months around these types of set-ups and how difficult it is to get any meaningful convection with a onshore flow...unless we do manage to get  snapfire trough.front forming, which is unlikely given the orientation of the axis of the LP gyre coming across from the SW.

    Yes if we’re taking exact positioning at face value this far out. Likelihood is when the day comes it’ll be a little different. Get the cold in first springs to mind...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

    For our tiny island these 100-200 mile shifts northwards or southwards will make a huge difference as to who gets buried.

    As tonight shows it's the NE but a few hundred miles shift south and it's the SE back in the game. It's probably going to swing either way for a few days yet before that low is finally pinned down!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/ hot not mild muck!
  • Location: South Norfolk

    Norfolk bums out again!! Need a shift south not just Imby but for the vast majority!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    What is EPS please ? Same as GFS mean maybe? 

    ECM ensemble mean 

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    The medium range EPS mean has shifted the core of the cold further north - looks good for the northern part of the UK.  However still decent in the south (though not as cold as this morning) so keep the faith folks!

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    6 minutes ago, danm said:

    Again, just wrong. I wish some people on here would hold back and think about what they post. If you’re less experienced, follow what many of the more experienced posters on here are saying. 

    Some want and look for the reaction you have provided. They are best ignored

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    Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

    Large areas of the UK will certainly see plenty of the white stuff from Friday.

    The prospects look grim on the SE coast after todays runs.

    We tap into some decent cold for 24hrs potentially and then we are looking to the SW.

    Never has there been any lasting snow from that direction here,a correction of these systems South might save the day,channel low territory.Given what is showing that seems a big ask for early next week.

    My big hope is that we all can share in a freeze with snowfall.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    Just now, That ECM said:

    And if it all moves south a bit or north then the areas will change. You’re clearly skilled at analysis but this would be best left until t72 probably t48. Once Dorset had meto red warning for snow. It got taken down 3 hours before the event. The heavy disruptive snow made a semi circle around us. Nearly over it now😩🤣 but the point being let’s see closer to the time. 
     

    As I say though, like your analysis.😄👍

    Hi, I was very careful there not to mention locations, just that basically if your north of the LP core your going to get lots of snow, south and your going to be struggling alot more.

    As you say there is plenty of time for this to shift around, and honestly a 100 mile shift SE brings most of the south back into play again.

    So your right regarding locations, but unless the GFS is right, that broad analysis above will hold regardless of where the LP ends up forming. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    7 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

    Bugger all for Brum there mate! Looks rubbish but i know shouldn't be believed! 

    I meant great for the Midlands North this winter as a whole I'm assuming you've already had several decent snow events as have my cousins in Staffordshire be it December or January/ this morning for some. 

    Anyway attempting to stay positive, (with great difficulty) models are chopping and changing, and as Daniel just posted the EPS is much further SE so we live in hope 🤞🙏

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: Diss, South Norfolk
  • Location: Diss, South Norfolk
    2 minutes ago, jules.p said:

    Norfolk bums out again!! Need a shift south not just Imby but for the vast majority!

     

    Yes, the center of lows always sit smack bang over east Anglia nearly every time, giving us nowt.  Got a whole 2cm in 2010 due to this.  Yawn.

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    Posted
  • Location: Netley Abbey
  • Location: Netley Abbey
    27 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

    Absolutely dreadful run for the South and SE of the country that have already put up with the most torturous winter in living memory. A bit like myself supporting Spurs- we're always nearly but never quite enough. There was so much promise at the start of the season but the runs of the last 2 days are mirroring Spurs current form.

    I hope the low is modelled a couple hundred miles further south in future runs so we can finally see some of the white stuff but unlikely IMO

     

    If I was living Midlands northwards I'd be delighted with this winter but also hoping other areas got in on the act too so we can all have a memorable winter, but knowing our luck the pattern will be more favourable in Spring as is often the case here.

    Totally agree with you, i cant remember a winter where the contrasts have been so big. Down here on the south coast its been mild, dull and wet for the most part with a couple of frosts. You would never have thought January was the coldest in the uk for 10 years living down here! I think were destined for nothing again down here other than a couple of cold dry days which will be most welcome after the amount of rain we have had! I hope im wrong!!

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Bet anyone the runs will look different by tomorrow evening. Thats what my money is on. 

    This is a very unusual pattern happening, and a clash of unusually warm air from Africa, with brutal cold from the North and east.

    I think we will see an eastward shift of the warm uppers, and a more NE track of that Iberian low. Also, through experience, stagnant lows to the West usually correct South. December 2017 a good example, which gave a brilliant snow covering. Two days prior, it was shown 150-200 miles further north! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Diss, South Norfolk
  • Location: Diss, South Norfolk
    2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Don't think anybody was rude to him. His comments were based on nothing more than conjecture, and I don't agree that it will be a Midlands north event.

    And your comment in brackets - well, it's just ridiculous.

    So can you tell us why it will happen (actually based on something model related)?

    My experience is that LP's often trend south and are not as deep as initially modelled. I'm not saying it will, but it could.

    Just based on what usually happens...    Experience I guess.  But I do agree that the lows usually head further south nearer the time, but I don't think it will be enough this time for people in the south..

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL

    I know shouldn’t be mentioned but it is kind of model related but various professional  forecasts bone dry for everywhere south of north England from weekend in to next week...hope they are not seeing something in other models that supports that low not dropping south 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    15 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    The thing with this type of set-up is we are sadly probably to see quite a sharp line between the areas that get utterly dumped on and the areas that broadly remain green apart from maybe some snow showers.

    Regardless of the modelled set-up, broadly:

    North of the LP core - lots of convection, flow  from north sea= good convection

    South of the LP core - less convection due to airflow drying out over land as is normal at this time of year = weaker convection and less snow. Can't rule out troughing though bringing something more organised though.

    This is regardless of the modelled set-up and basically will be uniform across the models other than obviously the GFS.

    EG, GEM is further south and so the whole country gets involved with the snow, the ECM further north, so the overland flow greatly reduce snow risk.

    Placement is utterly key for snow chances.

    Whilst that's a good assessment of the ECM run, I never forget that in a snow scenario when cold is likely, nothing is particularly certain until T48 - apart from north sea convection. I'm not sure it would have been much more helpful had the ECM shown more snow at this stage. It's about two things - where's the deep cold windy easterly going and is it supportive of snow. Number 1 - currently north, number 2 - yes for all, I think.

    Edited by Man Without Beard
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    Getting this evolution nailed down is worse than getting a tooth pulled. You would like to think it will be sorted by Wed 12z or at worst Thur 0z. Hopefully thereafter we will only have to worry about longtivity and who gets the most snow. The current synoptic pattern does remind me of late 70's and early 80s. Maybe not having access to all the data we now have would be a blessing in scenario's like we have now, poring over every chart since the strat warming event.

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    Message added by Paul,

    It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

    There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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