Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Downburst]

15 minutes ago, GeordieX9v said:

Snow is notoriously hard to predict more than a day in advance mate I wouldn't worry. I would imagine any showers that do pop up in the north sea would have the chance to be thundery.

Pressure is also quite high in all of this.

[sheikhy]

Icon further south at 60 hours!!think might be time to forget bout the persistant snow and focus on shower activity instead!!expect gfs to go south as well!!

[Midlander]

Quick look at the ICON shows the precip is further SE on the 18Z compared to 12Z

[rdt123]

1 minute ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Quick look at the ICON shows the precip is further SE on the 18Z compared to 12Z

Doesn’t seem to show any shower activity inland which doesn’t seem plausible 

[Midlander]

Just now, rdt123 said:

Doesn’t seem to show any shower activity inland which doesn’t seem plausible 

I really wouldn't worry about that, from what I've read on this thread the ICON is not good at forecasting convection so if anything this probably an underestimate of precip. 

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Icon further south at 60 hours!!think might be time to forget bout the persistant snow and focus on shower activity instead!!expect gfs to go south as well!!

Brings an area of snow through the Midlands, as per the Met Office warnings and the UKV.

No-one seems to be paying any attention to that  

[bluearmy]

I do hope that none of you have promised snow to your nearest and dearest ....... that a sure fire way of removing it from the outlook ......

we need to wait for the 00z runs to get a better feel for the precip into Sunday and whether this is drifting away

it could be that icon has lost the frontal precip but not picking up convective ??

[Candice Bartley]

1 minute ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Quick look at the ICON shows the precip is further SE on the 18Z compared to 12Z

 

I've loved reading everything you've all said over the last few weeks (years even) but I'm so confused over all the different views.. From what I can see my location isn't looking good for Sunday with the dry spot.. What a hobbie to have crazy times

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Brings an area of snow through the Midlands, as per the Met Office warnings and the UKV.

No-one seems to be paying any attention to that  

Ecm showed a similar band of snow for saturday evening i think crossing west to east bringing 5 to 10cms but that was 00z not sure bout the 12z!

[Tim Bland]

Just now, Candice Bartley said:

I've loved reading everything you've all said over the last few weeks (years even) but I'm so confused over all the different views.. From what I can see my location isn't looking good for Sunday with the dry spot.. What a hobbie to have crazy times

Everyone’s location is in a dry spot on the icon lol 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Candice Bartley said:

I've loved reading everything you've all said over the last few weeks (years even) but I'm so confused over all the different views.. From what I can see my location isn't looking good for Sunday with the dry spot.. What a hobbie to have crazy times

That's the frontal shield, if whole setup was further South, it would be better, Icon though poor at convection, won't be dry in the NE

[Djdazzle]

I really wish we could ban precipitation charts in this thread!

[Don]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I do hope that none of you have promised snow to your nearest and dearest ....... that a sure fire way of removing it from the outlook ......

Nope, only goes one way when you do that and it ain't white!!

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Candice Bartley said:

I've loved reading everything you've all said over the last few weeks (years even) but I'm so confused over all the different views.. From what I can see my location isn't looking good for Sunday with the dry spot.. What a hobbie to have crazy times

I wouldn’t be worried, with an easterly like this you’re in the firing line...

I’m not expecting much from the 18z tonight, this situation is playing to the worst of the GFS, if the UKMO, GEM and ECM are on the page that they are on today tomorrow, I’ll be happy.  

[rdt123]

Just now, AppleUK 123 said:

I really wouldn't worry about that, from what I've read on this thread the ICON is not good at forecasting convection so if anything this probably an underestimate of precip. 

Yeah I suppose in the last 15 years on the forums the main message has been get  the cold here and then see. All the 12z models show DP and 850s well into the territory of snow I think it’ll come down to the usual. Interestingly there are certain places that even within this region consistently do well 

[Don]

Surely 4 days out is FI for snow charts?!

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

I wouldn’t be worried, with an easterly like this you’re in the firing line...

I’m not expecting much from the 18z tonight, this situation is playing to the worst of the GFS, if the UKMO, GEM and ECM are on the page that they are on today tomorrow, I’ll be happy.  

Yes, fully expecting the GFS to disgrace itself in the next hour and send us all to bed in a bad mood!

[nick sussex]

The CEC Committee has now finished !

Regarding a possible extension to the cold .

A rather large factor is how quickly the PV in Canada starts to elongate and edge eastwards . 

Our colleagues at NCEP have discussed the uncertainty surrounding this which they note in their extended forecast discussion .

Additionally although we haven’t covered the MJO in recent days as we were watching the current easterly drama unfold that is to an extent a curveball into proceedings , the signal is now strengthening and moving into phase 7 , initially there was a lot of meandering about phase 6 .

Indeed NCEP needed rather large changes to their updated monthly forecast because of that and also as they think the remnants of the SSW are likely to strengthen the impact of that .

NCEP expect an amplified pattern to set up in the USA with deep cold over the central, eastern USA , as this cold is expected to get quite a way south this  would generally correlate with troughing similar to what the ECM shows upstream and that dig of energy south into the Atlantic , which then throws up that ten day tease .

And of course we know where that wants to head. 

The big question , can the UK avoid a milder interlude or is a cold extension possible .

There is a large degree of uncertainty there , how quickly do the effects of the MJO work through , how quickly does the PV upstream elongate and edge east ,  at this point the odds slightly favour a relaxation of the cold  more especially for southern parts of the UK .

However this is by no means a certainty. 

Any change over could be messy as wedges continue to pop up to the north and ne .

Even if a milder interlude does occur , upstream changes may well have us embarking on another drama soon after .

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Don said:

Surely 4 days out is FI for snow charts?!

To be fair, even one day out most are pretty naff, except maybe the hi res models.

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I really wish we could ban precipitation charts in this thread!

Haha that made me lol ...!!

[Don]

Just now, Johnp said:

Yes, fully expecting the GFS to disgrace itself in the next hour and send us all to bed in a bad mood!

As long as we are delighted again in the morning!  If Netweather had been around in the 60'/70's/80's, I wonder how many ups and downs there would have been in the run up to those classic cold spells? 

[Eagle Eye]

Now that the system is one hammer hit from being nailed in it is just the fine tuning of the details. At this particular moment we can begin to trust the uppers and - 8 to - 10 across most of the UK is brilliant regarding snowfall throughout the day. 

Xander

[Don]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Even if a milder interlude does occur , upstream changes may well have us embarking on another drama soon after .

Oh gawd, we haven't got to go through this all again have we?!  On a more serious note, still plenty of opportunities following next week's spell even if it does become temporarily less cold.

[CentralSouthernSnow]

5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Yes, fully expecting the GFS to disgrace itself in the next hour and send us all to bed in a bad mood!

You never know! Gfs may back track tonight  pub run special! Seems to always back track when ECM is on board with it. 

[Johnp]

10 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I really wish we could ban precipitation charts in this thread!

Banning charts past day 7/8 would be nice too. What a relaxing place this would be!