Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[sheikhy]

Ecm has gone middleground tonight!!amazing how that low just runs out of steam between 144 and 168 hours!!

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Snowmaggedon said:

So we’ve figured out it’s bad for the South what about the rest of the UK? 

Much more difficult to tell based on 168hrs, thats probably why people are holding back commenting further north until more frames come out.

EDIT- snow to rain event probably looking at 192hrs, especially further west you are. Could be considerable snow before it turns though the further north you go.

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[Tim Bland]

Doesn’t look like it’s going under or over to me..flick between 144 & 168 and the low just stalls and shifts straight east a bit. If anything it will go through and give snow to the far north and Scotland.

plenty of time for it to adjust south though

[Kreftysoton]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

An historic southern UK blizzard is in the making I reckon. With that much cold air in place fighting a fired up Atlantic and there is only one way it will end up!

Not with sw onshore winds....long way out but models are worrying at this stage. Feels like a 3-4 day cold snap (bar the north). Hope im wrong and the cold is stubborn to shift but feels like the atlantic will win out fairly quickly.

[feb1991blizzard]

See how easy they're disrupting even when orientation and tilt look unfavourable

[Phil Blake]

2 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

So we’ve figured out it’s bad for the South what about the rest of the UK? 

Shower distribution will change due to the change in wind direction. Battleground snow in other parts of the country

[Djdazzle]

With a cold block, I think there is a good chance that the low will go under.

It's FI anyway - and will be different on the next runs. No cause for concern whatsoever.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Djdazzle

[Tim Bland]

As expected..still time for adjustments though. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Much more difficult to tell based on 168hrs, thats probably why people are holding back commenting further north until more frames come out.

EDIT- snow to rain event probably looking at 192hrs, especially further west you are. Could be considerable snow before it turns though the further north you go.

Still miles better than the GFS! still a SE'ly flow, so temps wouldn't think much above 1 degree away from the SW, 850's mild though

Edited February 4, 2021 by I remember Atlantic 252

[markw2680]

Lol why do people put silly comments in here about sw winds at like 144 hours away? It’s all fi and I’ll be very very surprised if that was to end up right, this cold spell will not just be blown away with a mild sw winds that easily, just relax and watch things become even more prolonged in the coming days.

the beast is about to wake!!!

[sheikhy]

Just now, Frosty Winter said:

ECM 12z is still showing a considerable snow event for many next Thursday!

Thats 00z mate!!the 12z still looks okay!!

[kold weather]

Very interesting 168-192hrs evolution there.

Indeed the ECM is so cold at the surface still even at 192hrs that its giving quite a dangerous freezing rain event for the south.

Plnety of snowfall over the Midlands again on this run as it breaksdown:

Goes to show that even with what looks lie frankly very por 850hpa profile, with the winds staying just about SE and severe cold on the surface, we can get away with alot.

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[Snowmadsam]

A highly interesting ECM tonight. I stopped watching at 144 - there’s no point looking any further. Cold blocks are hard to nudge out the way.

Regarding any potential sliders, this will as ever need to be looked at. I’m not buying the evolution between 144 and 168 hrs. I do think there will be more of a clash in that - the word needs watching springs to mind.

Elsewhere, a mixed bag but I can now draw the conclusion that snow boots will indeed be needed as the weekend goes on...but for how long - well that’s impossible to say at this moment 

[AdrianHull]

Fantastic ECM! -10 to 12 uppers right out into late next week. 

[tight isobar]

Another stonker @12z ecm.. 144 as should be in general.. but more so now @cut off point.. let’s av a gander at supporting dat @ens =eps !!!... @easterly incursion

[jimbo36]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Excuse me how is that going under?it introduces milder southwesterlies

Where are the expert views when ya need them?

Why is everyone getting het up about one model one run for a scenario that is a week away and in FI.

Stick to the T96 period and enjoy the ride to come.

Getting tired of all the drama queens and attention seekers that come out to play when things aren't going their way

 

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Very interesting 168-192hrs evolution there.

Indeed the ECM is so cold at the surface still even at 192hrs that its giving quite a dangerous freezing rain event for the south.

Plnety of snowfall over the Midlands again on this run as it breaksdown:

That’s the 00z too

[sheikhy]

That is a frigid ecm up to 192 hours!!!dont be fooled by the 850s!!ice days widely next week!!

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

168hrs is different from the GFS but both are clearly bad for the south as there is a strong SW becoming established right at the back end of the front.

Will probably have more resistance further north. 

Probably a snow-rain event on this ECM run. North may hang on for a while longer.

Yes, but it won’t pan out like that will it?  

I’m suffering from model fatigue now, but we know from experience that when we get cold entrenched - which it will be now for sure - normal lows off the atlantic will correct south as we get closer to T0.  That’s not to say something weird won’t change the whole pattern - it did if I recall with the first BFTE in 2018 - but there is nothing like that showing on the models.  I think the lows will go under, just maybe not on this run...

[Snowman.]

ECM doesn't disrupt enough through europe earlier on which allows heights to rebuild south. The low then slows because of this stopping the ridge we saw this morning.

The low coming to stop isn't what we want, we want it disrupt, elongate then go under to our south through europe. If it spins of west it just builds heights ahead if comes in like a bowling ball then we end up like the GFS.

 

Lots of snow (heh) to go under the bridge. But the idea of the models playing with a wedge north has increased today.

 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

As expected..still time for adjustments though. 

Just a bit, it's 192 hours away 

[Panayiotis]

8 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Not a chance it doesn't even look like a slider,this is looking more and more like a mini cold spell from sunday-wednesday.not even that severe in my oppinion,I think people have gone over the top

We have -8c 850hpa across most of the UK for over 72 hours from the east, that’s quite an event. And although most of the models do show the spell ending, that is over 144hrs away so there’s time for change especially when the UKMO is onboard for continuing the spell 

[Tim Bland]

Here is 12z comes in further north 

[Jordan S]

Evening..

So easterly winds will effect most areas by Sunday and will likely persist for all through the first half of the week atleast, winds may change to a more southeasterly later Wednesday or Thursday.
 
It will become very cold for many on Sunday with snow showers in many eastern areas, a strong easterly wind for most reaching gale force at times along the east coast making it feel bitterly cold.. 

Upper air temperatures -10 covering a large part of the uk from Sunday perhaps a bit lower..

some of these snow showers Sunday- Wednesday into eastern parts of Scotland and England will be heavy at times and they will fall to sea level.. given the strong easterly flow these likely moving a long way inland with distinct bands of snow showers in places which will bring locally significant accumulations.

Arpege shows this well..

Any rain in the south and east of England most or all transitioning to snow Saturday night into Sunday as very cold air wraps around this and a low becomes slow moving to the southeast the uk, this area of snow will likely persist for much of the day on Sunday perhaps moving northwest into central parts too before clearing away there looks likely to be 10-15cm for parts of east Anglia but a moderate chance of 15-20cm in a few spots here.

A closer look..

 

It remains very cold for many through to Thursday, snow showers continuing these in eastern parts of England in particular still although perhaps more northern and northeastern areas of England seeing the most of these as the winds look like changing direction to a southeasterly but other areas will likely see some too, eastern areas of Ireland and northern Ireland will also see snow showers at times through the early part of the week.

The gfs is probably pushing this frontal system in too quickly on Thursday it may delay this on its next update later this evening..

Details may change but a frontal system is likely to move into the southwest and perhaps southern areas giving the possibility of significant snow on Thursday it may turn less cold in the southwest as milder air very slowly moves in but it's likely most parts will remain in the very cold air into Thursday and staying cold for most into Friday although perhaps less cold than early in the week with the potential for further snow particularly in the south. 

Edited February 4, 2021 by jordan smith

[Kentspur]

27 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

 

Nice

Cant knock this at all really only IMBY is its not as good for a streamer setup as UKMO and GEM need the pattern south about 20-30 miles 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Kentspur