Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[nick sussex]

For our Irish coldies .

Eastern areas there could see some Lake Effect snow driven well inland . And of course any approaching Atlantic low could deliver some snow with some favourable trough disruption .

[BelgianBlizzard]

Is it still possible for everything to go south some 200 miles by next sunday? Asking for a friend who lives in the middle of Belgium

[radiohead]

18Z GEFS mean has 4 degree colder uppers than the 12Z in places at 150. This is the kind of trend we want to see.

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep upgrade on the mean . 
 

18z mean -

12z mean

Mean and support are on que for the op..it just keeps giving

[sheikhy]

Anyone seen the control more amplified across the west of us

[Spah1]

15 minutes ago, DCee said:

If that monster low can slide it'll bring the house down. Just need some lower heights in Iberia and voila you've got winter wonderland for a good while.

I can’t read the thread fast enough at the moment. I’m not sure if you have backtracked on the ‘writing on the wall’ post about the GFS yet? Follow the UKMO in these set ups, usually right. 

[Johnp]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Anyone seen the control more amplified across the west of us

Yes, a strong ridge being thrown up west of Ireland could be the key to blocking off the atlantic. 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Johnp
Typo

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Anyone seen the control more amplified across the west of us

I have now that’s what we want . 

[Battleground Snow]

I missed the 18z runs tonight, but I'm glad to see the para showing a possible option of how we could extend the cold spell for a few days.

GFS always tries to default to climatological bias past 192.

Until a breakdown is shown at 144 on both ECM and ukmo I think we will be in game for an extended cold spell, especially with the favourable background signals.

I'll see you fellow hardcore nutters at 330am for the icon.

[Chasbrown]

10 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

The GEFS 18z ensemble mean is rock solid out to t132 with sub -8C uppers covering the majority of the country!

 

What would be the night time minima during this period? 

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening gang

just before i get to the models i kept on getting asked at work today if this easterly is on for the weekend because they all know i am a weather geek(in a good way as they all love me ha! ha!),i said there is every possibility and i did tell them that it is not a dead cert yet,i have just come in and looked at the latest models and it looks odds on now for this easterly,tomorrow they are going to bombard me with the same question,i will let them know on Friday and keep them hanging for another 24 hrs he! he!

now as for the models it seems to me looking at the latest that there is going to be more trough disruption to our W/SW esp the 18z gfs//p and also the latest 18z control at 150,what a run so far...

a resurge of heights just to west of the UK,this is going to be a good run

going back to what i have just said^^ re trough disruption,this seems more evident today on the models whilst they get the gist of how strong the block is to the north and there is every possibility that these lows will disrupt further south in time,great model output again today. 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Lots of snow south east England

Thats some serious dynamics.. and feasible given the structure.... and inflow!

[sheikhy]

Anyway good night my peeps!!see you on the 00zs with more upgrades!!until then ciao!!!!❄

[Matt H]

1 minute ago, Chasbrown said:

What would be the night time minima during this period? 

ECM 12z was suggesting lows of around -13C across the snow fields in the Midlands on Thursday next week.

[Allseasons-Si]

The latest gefs ens get the mean below -10 here,i am going to put the beers outside this weekend

London is nae bad either getting down to -8.

[pages]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

The breakdown is there in the modelling- perfectly fine to talk about IMO. If we can speculate on cold showing 7 days out then we can discuss a potential breakdown!

Not to mention, the breakdown period could be the west's best chance at something appreciable from this spell.

Of course the breakdown is showing as the models have been showing phantom Greenland high for next week and still showing downgraded heights there 100hr+

Met office never mention heights next week to the north west i.e no Greenland heights.

Met office mention height rises to north and it being dry apart from snow showers in east

Expect over next few runs that higher pressure over Greenland to disappear and be replaced by wedges of heights between Iceland and Scotland just strong enough to send the approaching lows into France.

The increased heights over UK limiting convection.

 

[damianslaw]

The models now all in full agreement of much colder weather spreading south through whole UK this weekend.

As ever who will see snow, who will see the heaviest will be a case of now casting.

At this range no point pinpointing the detail.

Best just sitting back and letting things take its course.

Alas we have 3 more days of speculation to go, save your energy and sit back I say...

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, MJB said:

01:00 Sunday morning snow becoming more widespread

Eh? That shows a lot of rain for many areas snow restricted to the north

[Geordiesnow]

46 minutes ago, Johnp said:

What will that mean on the ground? Bigger, less powdery snow flakes?

In answer to this question, I think it means convection won't be as strong as one might think. The PPN charts sort of confirms this. This is for Sunday btw. into next week, thicknesses do drop so that should mean a more unstable flow. 

Sunday does have heavier PPN over Easst Anglia but that is a frontal system and not showers. That said, even though Sunday looks like it might have higher thicknesses so less convection, anything that falls should be of snow so accumulations should still occur. 

[ICE COLD]

4 minutes ago, pages said:

Of course the breakdown is showing as the models have been showing phantom Greenland high for next week and still showing downgraded heights there 100hr+

Met office never mention heights next week to the north west i.e no Greenland heights.

Met office mention height rises to north and it being dry apart from snow showers in east

Expect over next few runs that higher pressure over Greenland to disappear and be replaced by wedges of heights between Iceland and Scotland just strong enough to send the approaching lows into France.

The increased heights over UK limiting convection.

 

Something akin to the control run on the 18z

T180

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Eh? That shows a lot of rain for many areas snow restricted to the north

Becoming I said , not totally ..............you are virtually in France anyhow lol

[Mike Poole]

Good runs on the 18z.  But I’m jaffa cakesed off. Businesses that know about this should be taking action, re both the weather and the coronavirus.  Are they?  In the case of the business I work for, NO!!

Edit, forgot about the Jaffa Cakes lol!

Edited February 3, 2021 by Mike Poole

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Eh? That shows a lot of rain for many areas snow restricted to the north

Actually it shows a small area of rain and mostly snow the rain. Will soon be replaced by snow 

[Don]

7 minutes ago, pyrotech said:

What would be useful on here is some valid analysis on the heights to our North and the effect on Jet stream (including USA storm) and how the models are changing them. The MJO with lag is perfect for a more blocked pattern, for me it must be the contrast in temp  coming from USA that is causing the changes predicted, but are they likely or over cooked.

A good post pyrotech.  Do you think it's a case of the favourable MJO vs a strong jet stream courtesy of brutal cold coming out of the USA and seeing which gains the upper hand moving forward?

[Purga]

Short ENS pretty solid for cold!

Edited February 3, 2021 by Purga