Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Yarmy]

Wash streamer at T93 on the ICON:

 

It will change of course, but interesting to watch these features pop up.

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Early upgrade on the icon at 96

that's quite a significant move south

[supernova]

Icon...limpet low further south and colder uppers down to the SE faster as a result. Upgrade!

[Ice Day]

First significant move by the Icon, pulls the low to the south east a little more at 96 allowing colder air in quicker.

  

Good start if nothing else

[Battleground Snow]

Quite a big change from the 00z, long drawn easterly, rather than a south easterly, low should slide.

[MKN]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Quite a big change from the 00z, long drawn easterly, rather than a south easterly, low should slide.

Thanks to that area of higher pressure around the south west of iceland. 

[Ice Day]

Actually, this Icon run is turning into a stunner out to day 7

  

[Chrisover93]

Will

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Quite a big change from the 00z, long drawn easterly, rather than a south easterly, low should slide.

Will this system be further south?

[frosty ground]

High Pressure closer to the UK and the low slipping under.

Snow piling up along the east and being driven inland 

[ICE COLD]

-12 850s widespread on the ICON 12z . Get in there . 

[Matt H]

ICON 12z is definitely sorting out the longevity issue this afternoon in style. Still looking beautiful out to t168!

 

[phil nw.]

26 minutes ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

Appreciate that Phil, always good to learn and in my case that's a lot. If you don't mind me asking the occluded front (I think that's what it is called - line below L1002) as it is spinning anti-clockwise, does that then get pulled on an easterly towards our shores ? and an IMBY question, if that's correct, would that be likely to move north as it does so or sink south ? Thanks again.          

Looks to be a easing south by day 6 as the cold uppers taking over.The features to look out for early next week are kinks in the easterly flow coming across the north sea such as those branch like features with the spikes we see on the t120 fax i posted.

Those are the ones that bring more organised showers as they head in to eastern areas.

[Tim Bland]

East mids, Anglia & south east will see a lot of snow Sunday according to Icon!...

[That ECM]

38 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I felt that over the last couple of days we’d seen a subtle but undoubted move away from a more UK widespread very cold and snowy spell. I didn’t post my thoughts as I’m always the first to moan about people saying tomorrow’s runs are a absolutely crucial! But... I do think that we were fast running out of time for that trend to reverse. Thankfully it has, and it has done it in some style!! 

Certainly still marginal at times down here, but that sort of goes with the territory living here, but I’d be more than happy to take my chances on any of the main runs this morning. Come the time it won’t look like that of course, but there should be all manner of nice surprises tucked away in those yet to form isobar kinks no doubt 

The Northern Hemisphere set up is other worldly right now, even if we don’t all get what we want, we can at least all marvel at that! 

Nice post. I rarely post imby but I will say that the south could and I mean could get a rare event. Yes high risk but it usually is down here but the systems not getting far into the country could produce for us.

[ICE COLD]

The ICON is a proper upgrade. Hope they keep coming . Proper easterly

[Cold Winter Night]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Quite a big change from the 00z, long drawn easterly, rather than a south easterly, low should slide.

 

3 minutes ago, MKN said:

Thanks to that area of higher pressure around the south west of iceland. 

Formation in that Scandi/Iceland area is a very good sign. Like GFS 0z.

We want to see that across output more and more for longevity.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

ICON 12z is definitely sorting out the longevity issue this afternoon in style. Still looking beautiful out to t168!

 

Stop the count! And let's bank ICON right here....  Right now!..

[tight isobar]

German model is a snow fest.. cracking synoptics... expect upgrades all round today @convection @pop ups....

Edited February 3, 2021 by tight isobar

[Malarky]

Looks just like the snow graphic from the BBC video earlier.

[weirpig]

Arperge also very similar  with the postioning     Wash streamer.

[Mark wheeler]

Arpege 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Mark wheeler

[Don]

22 minutes ago, EML Network said:

Not really sure anything can be gleamed from that other than it looks like the North Atlantic LP is further north on the ECM ?

We don't want to see that trend north at this early time frame?!

[Tim Bland]

Some impressive snow depths from that Arpege  ( whole Uk view not available yet)

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Aprege

I thought Arpege being a high resolution model was better placed for forecasts within 48 hours ?

[winterof79]

Anyone interested in the correction south