Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Alpine glow]

2 minutes ago, Gadje said:

Please, please clear SE smartly little low. Not that it changes much of mine or 4/5th of the UK landmasses impending weather but so this thread can become readable again.

From what i've understood tonight, it would be beneficial for all because it will give yours and 4/5th of the UK landmasses impending weather more longevity. 

[BLIZZARDMAN]

A lot of members want to keep the deep cold going

[damianslaw]

Anybody wanting to see a perfect aligned cross east-west polar flow, take a look at all the ECM and GFS latest runs for Monday 8 Feb.

These are a rarity.

[Sully79]

Guys for forgive me if I’m wrong but all this talk about the gfs being s&@@&t and not reliable but now the best run make your minds up I’m getting confused.com!!!!???? I’ve been on this forum for years like other people have a model is only as good as what you want to see and believe I think it’s most certain it will get cold and it will snow and I do understand the passion I’m worse than the kids when it snows but guys don’t say one thing and then contradict yourselfs 

[Day_9]

There’s barely a member above the 30 yr average.  Everything is down down deeper and down right until the end of the semi reliable timeframe.  Is that called agreement?

Beyond 120  and often 96+ is guesswork.

this is how a prolonged spell digs in....

agreement on cold.  Next question is can it get a foothold?

 

[georgiedre]

Personally I've said since last week that it might be a case of systems pushing in but not getting too far . They won't reach the area where they reached today I would say struggling to get into South Wales and sw England possibly the dreaded m4 line.. just a hunch

[Don]

Still think it will be another nervous viewing for the 00z's as the cold still needs to get within 72 hours!

Edited February 2, 2021 by Don

[danm]

7 minutes ago, Sully79 said:

Guys for forgive me if I’m wrong but all this talk about the gfs being s&@@&t and not reliable but now the best run make your minds up I’m getting confused.com!!!!???? I’ve been on this forum for years like other people have a model is only as good as what you want to see and believe I think it’s most certain it will get cold and it will snow and I do understand the passion I’m worse than the kids when it snows but guys don’t say one thing and then contradict yourselfs 

Think you’ve got the wrong end of the stick there. 

The GFS has been almost on its own in blowing up the Iberian low and pushing it north. All or most other models haven’t shown this. However, for as long as the GFS persists with that evolution, its always a very small possibility, making the cold spell that little bit less certain. So to see it improve is a good thing because it increases confidence that the UKMO/ECM evolution is correct.

Will have to see if the improvement in the GFS and GEFS continues tomorrow. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by danm

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, Sully79 said:

Guys for forgive me if I’m wrong but all this talk about the gfs being s&@@&t and not reliable but now the best run make your minds up I’m getting confused.com!!!!???? I’ve been on this forum for years like other people have a model is only as good as what you want to see and believe I think it’s most certain it will get cold and it will snow and I do understand the passion I’m worse than the kids when it snows but guys don’t say one thing and then contradict yourselfs 

Hi mate . The reason everyone is lovin the latest gfs 18z run is because it has now come into line with all other output for the easterly. So they all now show roughly the same out to day 5 . The reason it was getting slated is because it was the only model output not showing an easterly but now it’s flipped with its ensembles. Hope that helps . 

[Allseasons-Si]

Has anyone seen the control run it barrels low after low to the south of the UK keeping us in the cold spell,...what a run so far.

 

[northwestsnow]

Are we on the cusp of a Feb 1991 here?

Its certainly a similar time of year, I'm sure of it....

[Sully79]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Hi mate . The reason everyone is lovin the latest gfs 18z run is because it has now come into line with all other output for the easterly. So they all now show roughly the same out to day 5 . The reason it was getting slated is because it was the only model output not showing an easterly but now it’s flipped with its ensembles. Hope that helps . 

Thanks for clearing that up for me much respect I’m a newby and learning my no disrespect intended

[Uncertainty]

1 minute ago, Sully79 said:

Guys for forgive me if I’m wrong but all this talk about the gfs being s&@@&t and not reliable but now the best run make your minds up I’m getting confused.com!!!!???? I’ve been on this forum for years like other people have a model is only as good as what you want to see and believe I think it’s most certain it will get cold and it will snow and I do understand the passion I’m worse than the kids when it snows but guys don’t say one thing and then contradict yourselfs 

I don’t think it’s a contradiction as such, these situations are so rare, almost mythical that they require near 100% model agreement to have a chance of verifying.
 

The very fact the GFS, one of the worlds top models (although an irksome and highly flawed one) was dissenting from the majority view meant that it had to be taken seriously. That’s why it (and the ECM over the weekend) were driving everyone in the weather world demented with their stubbornness!

Equally, the fact it has now come into line with other output gives the Countrywide easterly more credence. You are right that there is often too much emotion driving this forum but that is human nature - it manifests everywhere from Twitter to tower blocks. It’s up to the readers to make their own minds. 

You make a good point though and you should always feel free to ask questions and receive respectful, informed answers. Hopefully the weather will reward us with an epic spell this time. 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Are we on the cusp of a Feb 1991 here?

Its certainly a similar time of year, I'm sure of it....

That would be a 30th anniversary to talk about there NWS

great upgrades today and the 18z ICON wasn't bad either and i hope that they keep on upgrading tomorrow. 

[Day_9]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Are we on the cusp of a Feb 1991 here?

Its certainly a similar time of year, I'm sure of it....

It is possible.  The op at 144 ish has a conveyor belt of lows queuing up to roll along the southern coasts.  Surely some  massive snowmaking potential in there with the cold from the east setting in....

Edited February 2, 2021 by Day_9

[Sully79]

2 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

I don’t think it’s a contradiction as such, these situations are so rare, almost mythical that they require near 100% model agreement to have a chance of verifying.
 

The very fact the GFS, one of the worlds top models (although an irksome and highly flawed one) was dissenting from the majority view meant that it had to be taken seriously. That’s why it (and the ECM over the weekend) were driving everyone in the weather world demented with their stubbornness!

Equally, the fact it has now come into line with other output gives the Countrywide easterly more credence. You are right that there is often too much emotion driving this forum but that is human nature - it manifests everywhere from Twitter to tower blocks. It’s up to the readers to make their own minds. 

You make a good point though and you should always feel free to ask questions and receive respectful, informed answers. Hopefully the weather will reward us with an epic spell this time. 

Thank you I respect your honesty in this situation because all I want is the same as you guys but sometimes get lost 

 

[Uncertainty]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Has anyone seen the control run it barrels low after low to the south of the UK keeping us in the cold spell,...what a run so far.

 

This is low number 5. The previous 4 have all gone under the block. Even mambo number 5 is having a go! Go on my son!

Wat

[Sully79]

1 minute ago, Sully79 said:

Thank you I respect your honesty in this situation because all I want is the same as you guys but sometimes get lost 

 

Guys you’re all legends and play a pivotal part in this forum I’ve been on here for years but never posted because I trust in what you say I’m a winter weather chaser and I love it just wish I could drive up to Scotland for a week like I normally do for my snow fix but can’t right now gutted 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mean at 120, ensembles coming in line on mass!

 

Good old GEFS...and people wonder why I don’t rate them!

[Day_9]

4 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

This is low number 5. The previous 4 have all gone under the block. Even mambo number 5 is having a go! Go on my son!

Wat

Bonkers really, particularly if minus double digits 850’s are in place....

[Smoggieontour]

Fax chart for midday Sunday looking good. 528 dam line clearing most of the UK at that point, except the far SW. A weather front just off the Yorkshire coast, with a couple of "trees" in the North Sea, which I believe indicate enhanced/organised shower activity - one for NE England and one for E Scotland. Going to be fun and games.

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

This is low number 5. The previous 4 have all gone under the block. Even mambo number 5 is having a go! Go on my son!

Wat

After the initial easterly that packs a load of snow showers to the east and central areas it gives the south 3 snow events then the 4th one gives a country wide frontal snow event...

all the above are for pure fun of the run at this stage but what if all miss the country as these tend to become further south with time

great model watching at it's finest and i would love to see all the country white over with snow like back in 2009 or 2010 i cannot remember.

stay safe guys and i will have a browse in the morning

C U l8ters

 

 

[Snowman.]

Few channel lows popping up now...

 

[John in the frozen north]

Think about this.....

Just because a forecast or model turns out to be wrong it doesn't make it a bad forecast as all we can ask a forecast/model to do is to tell us the most likely outcome for the future weather at the time it was made. After that (remembering that weather systems are chaotic) what actually happens, which is not determined at the time the forecast is made, may not be the most likely outcome at the time of the forecast, so in fact the best model/forecast may get it wrong and the worst one may get it right.

[Cold Winter Night]

I'm glad to see the GFS and GEFS on the move, as I thought it would.

It just needs to take that low a little further SE, because, because, as happy as I am for all of you in Britain, that mild air poking through the cold just so that I am under positive T850's here in the West of Holland?
 Unacceptable behaviour!