Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

18z GFS ensembles are FAR better for all of the country.

Very much a thumbs up here.

Interestingly more are now going with solution of keeping the Iberian low much weaker as well.

Sounds like a flip...

[Allseasons-Si]

What a great mean at 144 hours compared the the 12z 150...

it's a snorter i can tell thee.

[pages]

6 minutes ago, Matt Jones said:

Good to see a much better run by the gfs18z. Breakdown is poor but more importantly it brings in a decent easterly spell for most and colder uppers for a time.

Don't think the 18z or any model we public see has this correct yet. Met office only mention showers for east side of UK, no mention of heavy snow from low.

Suggests come Sunday that low will be much further south east well into France and we have snow showers/streamers. 

Also they bullish on heights rising to north start of next week and it becoming dry and cold. Are they just being vague in saying north or perhaps mogreps is showing Icelandic heights instead of the Greenland heights shown by the other models so far.

Would expect a few ensembles to start hinting this on next couple of runs.

 

 

 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sounds like a flip...

I'd say so yes.

Whilst there are still some poorer runs within the ensemble, it is also more than fair to day there are some substantially more cold or snowy runs as well than the op.

I'd guess the op is somewhere in the middle of the pack?

[Battleground Snow]

Mild weather fans are worried

[jayb1989]

Has been quite the trend for the Atlantic to really fire up towards the end of next week on the last number of runs. I’m guessing it’s mainly down to the extreme cold filtering down through the US that is likely driving a stronger jet stream? Disappointing in terms of getting a prolonged cold spell, but i guess we can’t really complain with a decent 4/5 day cold spell.

[ianmm94]

1 minute ago, jayb1989 said:

Has been quite the trend for the Atlantic to really fire up towards the end of next week on the last number of runs. I’m guessing it’s mainly down to the extreme cold filtering down through the US that is likely driving a stronger jet stream? Disappointing in terms of getting a prolonged cold spell, but i guess we can’t really complain with a decent 4/5 day cold spell.

Let's worry about that next week. 

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, jayb1989 said:

Has been quite the trend for the Atlantic to really fire up towards the end of next week on the last number of runs. I’m guessing it’s mainly down to the extreme cold filtering down through the US that is likely driving a stronger jet stream? Disappointing in terms of getting a prolonged cold spell, but i guess we can’t really complain with a decent 4/5 day cold spell.

Once the cold is in, it's often very difficult to shift.

Don't be so sure of a quick Atlantic breakdown.

[Griff]

30 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Nice !!!!

 

 

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mild weather fans are worried

He's a top man, and to be fair doesn't normally get carried away either, definitely relevant here

[joggs]

Great posts. Off to sleep now with a smile on the face.  If we take a step back tomorrow, dont be down. Twists and turns to come.

[Stu_London]

Probably still scope for model drama with tomorrows runs, although more likely to be regional issues, the south and south east still looking like the area most flakey. 

If we get to this time tomorrow with similar runs then a reasonable cold spell would look locked in from the weekend. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Stu_London

[Don]

Well, another turbulent day of model watching but at least the GFS is moving towards the Euros rather than vice versa!  However, still time for a few more twists and turns but hopefully nothing too extreme!

[nick sussex]

Another day of drama draws to a close ! By the time any snow arrives coldies will be suffering from nervous exhaustion.

Still likely to be more changes in the outputs over the coming days. Hopefully good ones only !

Edited February 2, 2021 by nick sussex

[Chris.]

GFS throws a wobbler yesterday and calmly steps back into line today.  Tomorrow should lock it on but still fine margin if the low plays up

[Don]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Another day of drama draws to a close ! By the time any snow arrives coldies will be suffering from nervous exhaustion.

Still likely to be more changes in outputs over the coming days. Hopefully good ones only !

Hopefully further changes will bring the south/south west/south east more definitively into the game as it's still looking a little shaky for those areas currently.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Don

[That ECM]

10 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

Once the cold is in, it's often very difficult to shift.

Don't be so sure of a quick Atlantic breakdown.

Any organised areas of cloud and precipitation arriving from the southwest will not progress very far into the country as a result of the high pressure. However, they can bring the potential for widespread snow across areas where they bump into cold air.

[londonblizzard]

Biggest step today back towards cold on the GFS and GEFS suite. I'll take a 6.5 mean for today although londoners and southern coastal regions always need things a little bit colder than other places to rule out slushyness, so hoping it'll start to revert back fully to its -8/ -9 mean seen earlier this week with a more southerly tracked low and stronger easterly. 

[bluearmy]

So tomorrow morning we have the task of assessing if that low is going to clear se and allow a clean easterly or clear se and then come back north or not quite clear se at all 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS - BOOM

[Allseasons-Si]

Looking at the ECM op and control they where both marked outliers in the De-built ECM ens

temps,dew points and wind direction...,that is a clean cluster of E to NE winds there

also there is another warming in the strat on both 10 and 30 hpa on the JMA 

 

Climate System Monitoring / TCC

DS.DATA.JMA.GO.JP

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Climate System Monitoring / TCC

i stayed up late last night for the snow to arrive around 2am ish and there was floating powder snow falling and it settled straight away

this picture was about 10-15 mins in and then i went to bed waking up this morning to ten centimeters but i new that the milder air would take over and melt it,but no it didn't and it didn't get above 2c all day,there is still plenty of snow down now but is slushy

that is the fourth snow event up here but i do wish all of us would join in on the snow fun and maybe at the end of the week and into the weekend we might be talking of a countrywide cold spell...

best wishes on that front

 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS - BOOM

Yep they have flipped to a colder outlook I assume...

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yep they have flipped to a colder outlook I assume...

Mean flatlining for 4 days at around -8c, 1/3 of the suite below -10c.

 

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[Gadje]

Please, please clear SE smartly little low. Not that it changes much of mine or 4/5th of the UK landmasses impending weather but so this thread can become readable again.

[Allseasons-Si]

The gefs ens are prolonging the cold now,they where a 4 day affair last night but the latest show several days.

 

[northwestsnow]

At this point there will be a stampede to check the North Sea temps...

Its a pretty optimum time of year for an Easterly, esp with the air towards the Baltics being so cold.