Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[winterof79]

Nearly........

[Timmytour]

GFS 12z yesterday v today

 

Come on....sink baby!

[Drifter]

The way I see it, each day is about just getting through without the whole thing imploding.
Once we get to Thursday we should be ok. 
So far it looks as though we will live to fight another day. 

[TSNWK]

Just now, snowice said:

Its stopping of in Dublin for a Guinness before it goes on hoilday to France.

but the pubs are shut so off it trots.............. 

[Updated_Weather]

UKMO solid out at 96hrs

[winterof79]

Snow gates open

[James Maidstone]

6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The low is positioned differently on this run. 

That is a big change, must be 300 miles SSE

[frosty ground]

The low has now moved up from Spain, how it interacts over the south east now the big question

Edited February 2, 2021 by frosty ground

[Day 10]

GFS & UKMO 96 - Similar.

[That ECM]

T120 se of England

[kold weather]

Better from GFS 12z bu still no where near where it needs to be in how its evolving the low.

GFS 12z now shifting the focus onto the Iberian low, in what is the FOURTH different looking evolution on a trot from the GFS.

Looks like its going to try another 18z GFS type run with a stronger low sitting over the SE section of the country or just offshore.

PS - the BIG difference is the origins of the lows between UKMO and the GFS. GFS has a low from Spain dragging up lots of warm air. The UKMO is sourced partly from the UK low which helps to keep that warmer plume a little to the east.

Edited February 2, 2021 by kold weather

[Mark wheeler]

Ukmo 120

Edited February 2, 2021 by Mark wheeler

[Notty]

UKMO T+120

[Timmytour]

Definite movement west of the brutal cold on GFS so far

[Ice Day]

UKMO at 120 - looking like this mornings!

Like to see the 850's but looks great.  Oh, and I just had a warning message from Meteociel saying their server is 'overloaded' 

[Winter Hill]

The low south of Greenland is going to slide and Wales and the South West get a serious dumping 

 

 

 

 

[sheikhy]

Fantastic ukmo at 120 hours!!gfs improves early on!!

[That ECM]

Much better.

[Singularity]

 

Full circle back to the 00z with the low.

This tells me one thing: GFS is incapable of modelling that low weaker when the UK low is closer by.

Whether rightly or wrongly is the million dollar question.

At +72 hours it has the Euro low at near 1000 mb when ECM and UKMO 12z runs of yesterday had it at 1005 mb. Something to watch with their new 12z runs.

First up UKMO - and it's at 1005 mb still. Couple that with the UK low reaching further east and you've no issues for Saturday - Sunday.

Just the slightest of northward shifts compared to the prior 12z. 850s will be of some interest when they upload.

[Drifter]

Wonderful UKMO at 144. 
Still not a great GFS for the SE but it’ll get there in it’s own sweet time.

[Notty]

UKMO T+144

[winterof79]

Correction se and that's enough for me for now laters

Edited February 2, 2021 by winterof79

[Mike Poole]

UKMO T144, that low should now slide and go south of the majority of the country so a good run, similar to this morning.

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Better from GFS 12z bu still no where near where it needs to be in how its evolving the low.

GFS 12z now shifting the focus onto the Iberian low, in what is the FOURTH different looking evolution on a trot from the GFS.

Looks like its going to try another 18z GFS type run with a stronger low sitting over the SE section of the country or just offshore.

No that low is gonna fire up over the country, and the Iberian low has been a n issue for a while now.



A lot of mild air mix into the system, not a great run for the south, midlands north is looking good thou

Edited February 2, 2021 by frosty ground

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Drifter said:

Wonderful UKMO at 144. 
Still not a great GFS for the SE but it’ll get there in it’s own sweet time.

May still get away with it, even on this run.