South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Lampostwatcher]

Metoffice app has Oxford roughly the furthest west for light snow for a good few hours 

So anyone east of that looks like getting a covering from Sat late evening 

[Tim Bland]

51 minutes ago, saintkip said:

For my location the ECM is pony, no snow from the front on Sunday, of the models it looks like UKMO will give most snow but GFS not far behind.

Have you seen UKV? Gives you snow Sunday morning .. it’s a bit far west compared to most models but there’s a chance 

[Snowman31]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Have you seen UKV? Gives you snow Sunday morning .. it’s a bit far west compared to most models but there’s a chance 

Is thus modeling behind a paywall only? 

[Uxbridge90]

2 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Metoffice app has Oxford roughly the furthest west for light snow for a good few hours 

So anyone east of that looks like getting a covering from Sat late evening 

From a IMBY perspective, I think W/NW London could get a decent amount!

[Lampostwatcher]

1 minute ago, Uxbridge90 said:

From a IMBY perspective, I think W/NW London could get a decent amount!

Yeah I'd say 5-8cms by the end of Sunday evening 

[lawrenk]

12 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I'm not sure what I'll do, since I've got to drive up for my jab on Sunday morning, I probably aught to be somewhat refreshed, especially if there is snow on the ground and the grit probably won't be as effective overnight Saturday anyway.

However I REALLY want the east to do well and I have quite the affinity with those guys over there being an eastern alumni myself, so I may end up getting sucked into watching my old neck of the woods longer than I should!

If there wasn't lockdown I'd definitely have made arrangements to conveniently 'visit' relatives over in Essex on Sunday, but alas lockdown is here so thats a no go.

Well I hope you’re around matey. At the risk of sounding sycophantic, you’re one of the first posters I seek out on the MAD thread as, unlike many on there, you tell it like it is and avoid all the IMBY wind ups.

Hope you manage to get there Sunday.  I would have had you down as being far too young the get the vaccine at the moment? I know we’re doing well with the rollout but I didn’t think we were doing that well!

[Snowman31]

Just now, Lampostwatcher said:

Yeah I'd say 5-8cms by the end of Sunday evening 

Haha, I wish I had your optimism 

[ITSY]

As I feared several days ago, expecting nothing in cambridge now but will keep an eye on the radar just in case. Suffolk and Norfolk and Essex look absolutely sweet though!

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Perhaps the more technically gifted on here, could comment on whether or not, that would suppress any Convective type Ppn, from firing?

 

Whats interesting is a constant theme of the models that I've seen is the runs that are stronger with the showers/streamers are also the runs that have a stronger snow event on Sunday, suggesting a strong/closer front.

So it maybe the case that it actually works the other way round this time, in that the nearby front provides extra uplift which along with the higher lapse rates helps spark convection off more widely. Whilst a weaker front/further away has less forcing across the N.Sea and therefore lower instablity generated.

I've seen it far too often on all models for it to be a fluke, they broadly all follow that pattern described in my first line.

[stainesbloke]

8 minutes ago, TonyK St Albans said:

Sorry to rain on everyone's parade but, much as I really love to see the snow, I cannot say I'm looking forward to this coming event.

Why? Because of the extremely harsh north easterlies that are expected to accompany the snow from the off on midnight Sunday and through most of Monday.

Winds are forecast to gust at up to 40mph inland and over 50mph near coasts. That alone will take a lot of of the fun out of it for me. It's going to be brass monkeys with bells and whistles all the way through.

Fine if that doesn't bother you but it's not really my cup of tea.

If you wrap up properly with scarf, hat, gloves, double socks and a decent jacket, you won’t feel it much

[sunnijim]

9 minutes ago, EML Network said:

Hey...I'm hopeful but as you can imagine; given how hard it is for us to get snow down here even when a few miles inland gets buried...im just trying to keep my hopes realistic. 

Best we can hope I think is that a Thames streamer sets up and that is a definite possibility, so we could get really lucky. 

I think we will see snow falling but not massive amounts, I'll be running up around Ditchling Beacon and Devils Dyke on Sunday anyway as I want to make the best of it and go to where the snow will be deepest

 

Just hoping I don't freeze to death lmfao

 

you guys tend to fare better over there than we do here generally, you seem to be just that bit further East and it seems to make a bit of difference for some reason. 

It will probably come down to looking at the radar and hoping 

 

 

That will be requiring some sort of Arctic explorer garment EML.

I'm pretty high on the South Downs myself ( Saltdean elevation) and a screeming North easter progged on Sunday with maximums of -1c is going to feel like -10c I would think!

[Ols500]

5 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

Is thus modeling behind a paywall only? 

 

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Have you seen UKV? Gives you snow Sunday morning .. it’s a bit far west compared to most models but there’s a chance 

Hi does this app give depths at that zoom level?

[HammerJack]

It’s going to feel bitter out there on Sunday!!

[SnowBear]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

There have been vast flocks of birds seen flying westwards over the last few days, apparently  

Has anyone indentified the type of birds? 

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Well I hope you’re around matey. At the risk of sounding sycophantic, you’re one of the first posters I seek out on the MAD thread as, unlike many on there, you tell it like it is and avoid all the IMBY wind ups.

Hope you manage to get there Sunday.  I would have had you down as being far too young the get the vaccine at the moment? I know we’re doing well with the rollout but I didn’t think we were doing that well!

Thanks! I think its easier for me now as I'm honestly satisfied with the snowfall that I had a couple of weeks ago, so anything else now is a bonus. I'm sure if I'd have nothing I'd been a bit more scatty right now! I'll stick around long enough on Saturday night to know how things are rolling out, but unless it gets very snowy looking in my region I will probably bow out earlier than I'd like.

Yeah, Its so to speak a new perk of the job I do apparently, though I'm not directly involved with the residential side of my workplace, the fact that all staff interact with the care side staff/students means we've all been offered the vaccine, which makes sense really. Interestingly I know of quite a few young people who have got a jab via family members working in NHS, etc.

 

[Uxbridge90]

4 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

Haha, I wish I had your optimism 

Most of the charts still look promising for our area and London in general, sure, it's not as much as some previous charts were showing but we'll still see something. Even with lighter precipitation we could still end up with 6 hours + of light snow.

[Snowman31]

1 minute ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Most of the charts still look promising for our area and London in general, sure, it's not as much as some previous charts were showing but we'll still see something. Even with lighter precipitation we could still end up with 6 hours + of light snow.

I'd be happy with a small covering at least by Sunday evening. 

 

We don't tend to do well in streamers. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Snowman31

[Mark Bayley]

42 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah I think Sunday is still highly uncertain for western parts of the region, some models get here and others struggle. No real consistency yet and so until that can zero in a little stronger one way or the other (basically a 50-50 split atm).

For example, looking through the ensembles the ECM 00z operational is towards the lower end of the range for the western parts of the region, but sits neatly into the middle of the range further east.

An amber warning will be absolutely justified for EA and Kent (maybe E.London) some point today. Yellow warning probably suffices further west due to higher levels of uncertanity here. 

IF we get towards the upper end and then get a streamer set up, a red alert isn't out of the question for Estuary regions IMO.

Providing everything goes off ok, 20-30cms in NW Kent, maybe E.London and SW Essex looks quite possible, probably a wider area over E.Anglia of 10-20cms and then locally 20-30cms as well depending on the following distrubution of showers, etc.

Further west 1-5cms seems more reasonable, but again locally streamers, especially for Surrey, Berkshire and maybe parts of Hampshire may significantly boost that total.

 

Agreed, still looking rather good for those in the East. Like you say, its rather  uncertain for us further west! I agree with @Uxbridge90 though, slate grey skies and ice days are not really my thing (although I won't begrudge further East getting in on the action!). 

 

[Uxbridge90]

17 minutes ago, TonyK St Albans said:

Sorry to rain on everyone's parade but, much as I really love to see the snow, I cannot say I'm looking forward to this coming event.

Why? Because of the extremely harsh north easterlies that are expected to accompany the snow from the off on midnight Sunday and through most of Monday.

Winds are forecast to gust at up to 40mph inland and over 50mph near coasts. That alone will take a lot of of the fun out of it for me. It's going to be brass monkeys with bells and whistles all the way through.

Fine if that doesn't bother you but it's not really my cup of tea.

Agreed, it's going to be a pretty horrid week for the homeless, a lot of homeless charities have struggled due to covid and can't offer as much as they did in previous winters.

[EML Network]

8 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

That will be requiring some sort of Arctic explorer garment EML.

I'm pretty high on the South Downs myself ( Saltdean elevation) and a screeming North easter progged on Sunday with maximums of -1c is going to feel like -10c I would think!

HAHAHA Yup, base layer, vest and standard running top, then i've got my waterproof and windproof jacket No 1 and another waterproof and windproof jacket on top of that.  A buff for my neck, 2 pairs of gloves, knee length socks, plus my trail shoes and calf guards. 

Nice warm hat and another on my hydration vest just to be safe, running boxers, running shorts and thermal leggings and i'll carry windproof and waterproof lightweight running trousers in my hydration vest just to be safe. 

It's a lot of weight to have on your person for running, but I'm working my way up to running the Mont Blanc Mountain marathon in a few years time, plus Snowdonia Marathon this year and Lake district ''5 Passes'' Ultra and the Ring of Hell Ultra marathon and the shropshire way 80km race this year....so it's all good training. 

 

If anything I might actually be too hot and have to unzip layers hahaha

 

We'll see how it unfolds, I might opt to stay a little closer to home if its really really bad out there. 

[kold weather]

For those wondering about Sunday morning and places further west and why there is a difference, I'll try to explain below:

There is actually TWO seperate areas that are moving around a larger circulation of the low forming over NE France.

The models are in pretty good agreement with the eastern area coming up from France and the rough westward extent seems fairly defined, though it doesn't look that intense, so it will be more a slow burner accumulation.

However the western area is causing the models no end of grief. The ICON 06z above keeps it fairly strong and takes longer to bring it further south. This allows it to:

1: Turn to snow earlier for more of the region

2: Last longer due to starting further north.

Other models however either have it getting further south before the cold air rushes in or indeed weakens it faster as the main energy starts to transfer eastwards towards the eastern circle and eastwards towards Germany as the low stretches out.

For example the 00z ECM has got the area still, but its further west and there is a gap over our region which means the cold air doesn't get down fast enough to turn it to snow before it clears for most of the region, which means the whole western part of this region then depends solely on the very light snow coming from the eastern circle of precip. Hence the poor snow cover on the ECM op.

00z GFS meanwhile pushes the whole lot through far quicker than either model, which again means the cold air doesn't catch up the front as per the 06z ICON, which again leaves the region basically needing the eastern precip to either be a little bit further west than expected, or stronger, to get anything more than probably 1-3cms over a long period of light snowfall.

For us lot further west, the thing to watch is either:

1: the stronger western part of the front taking as long as possible transfering southwards and not too far west. If that were to happen then we'd have a chance to get involved. 

2: The eastern frontal area ends up being a good 50-100 miles further west to drag the whole area into the precip. Its plausible solution though IMO less likely than no.1 based on this mornings models.

Edited February 5, 2021 by kold weather

[chionomaniac]

Taps fingers.......waiting game now.

Looks like snow here will be around 1am Sunday

[Captain Shortwave]

Fax charts

So this is roughly our transition point to snow for most areas. Decaying front over the north of the region and a new one forming over coastal parts of France and Belgium. This puts Suffolk/Essex and Kent along with east London at the highest risk, maybe some patchy stuff elsewhere if this occurs. Ties in with what @kold weather says on the previous page.

   

 

The front remains in similar position for a prolonged period. So under the heaviest and most persistent areas then a good chance of a solid covering.

 Monday

Persistent snow clearing away, a trough suggesting that frequent showers should begin to push in from the North Sea.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[SnowBear]

Just scanned back through for anyone speaking about the behaviour of birds leading up to the weekend. 

I think it's geese are said to walk east and fly west before any cold weather. 

And look out for waxwings, they don't normally come this far west unless it's very cold in Russia/Scandi. 

I have been putting more food out for the birds in the garden this year, with fast food outlets etc closed they will be finding it more difficult to find food. With 8 feeders of various types dotted around the garden its costing a small fortune but great to see the many types coming in to feed. 

My record, although not this year, was 12 different types of bird in at the same time. 

Sparrow, wren, starling, blackbird, blue tit, great tit, pigeon, crow, bullfinch, wood pecker, greenfinch and thrush. 

If you do have a garden and feed birds, remember in cold weather to put fresh water out each day. 

[Paul Sherman]

If I was to have a stab at where the highest totals will be by end of play on Wednesday it would be somewhere like Meopham or Detling Hill on the North Downs with totals exceeding 30cm by then and god only knows what the drifts will be by then with 4 days of screaming North Easterlies or Easterlies blowing the snow around.

Harsh conditions in those areas