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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Lee, SE London, SE12, 21m (68ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme!
  • Location: Lee, SE London, SE12, 21m (68ft) ASL

    Oh, oh, oh, thanks @Paul for adding locations to the mobile site posts. That'll speed up reading in the next few days. 

     

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    I suppose not really weather related but I just wanted to say thank you all so much.  I've really really enjoyed following the posts today.  I am awaiting Open Heart Surgery sometime this year and you

    Oh my f**king god. How many times does it need saying? 1. The amber doesn't expire until tomorrow midday 2. Widespread heavy showers & streamers are going to follow later, tonight,

    Evening. Here's my estimated #snow depths for England and Wales that I expect until noon on Monday, using a blend of high resolution models.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: NW London

    All at 42 hours 

    Arome 

    image.thumb.png.b2f8469dc4ac628152b48c517297f72a.png

    Aprege 

    image.thumb.png.75f9faaa5db0b170ae5fb5d5188a290b.png

    Hirlam 

    image.thumb.png.419fb871573009ee131137274f1171ee.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NE London
  • Location: NE London
    1 minute ago, Snowman31 said:

    All at 42 hours 

    Arome 

    image.thumb.png.b2f8469dc4ac628152b48c517297f72a.png

    Aprege 

    image.thumb.png.75f9faaa5db0b170ae5fb5d5188a290b.png

    Hirlam 

    image.thumb.png.419fb871573009ee131137274f1171ee.png


    Interesting to see but i don't think any of that will be snow at this point since it's only saturday evening

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    Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex

    Cautiously optimistic for my location for Sunday and, for what it’s worth, the MO APP is currently suggesting (mostly light) snow here for the best part of 30 hours, though that could all go up in a puff of smoke in an instant.

    Tantalising mention on the MO update of the threat of heavy snow around Tuesday. May be a low scooting across Northern France?

    Not going to worry too much about a breakdown at the end of next week, other than my own if I see absolutely nothing!

    Planning on a poss all nighter tomorrow, as it looks to kick off in the early hours so hopefully some of you will be around?

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Just a visual reminder of how cold its predicted to be, this is the 00z GEM for Tuesday 3pm, so basically max temperatures:

    GEMOPUK00_111_38.thumb.png.a92bfacebfbe754266cb35e7f2b7e603.png

    -3/4c in this area! 

    ECM is a touch milder, with it reaching the giddy heights of -1c for most!

    Some places stay sub zero from Saturday night through to Wednesday. So any bodies of water have a reasonable chance of freezing given the reasonable length of sub zero temperatures in a row.

     

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    9 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

    Planning on a poss all nighter tomorrow, as it looks to kick off in the early hours so hopefully some of you will be around?

    I'm not sure what I'll do, since I've got to drive up for my jab on Sunday morning, I probably aught to be somewhat refreshed, especially if there is snow on the ground and the grit probably won't be as effective overnight Saturday anyway.

    However I REALLY want the east to do well and I have quite the affinity with those guys over there being an eastern alumni myself, so I may end up getting sucked into watching my old neck of the woods longer than I should!

    If there wasn't lockdown I'd definitely have made arrangements to conveniently 'visit' relatives over in Essex on Sunday, but alas lockdown is here so thats a no go.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.

    BBC app has me down for 29 hrs of continuous light snow.. (Sun 6a.m till Mon lunch time.)

    If that happens I will be a very happy middle aged man.

    No measurable snow here since 2018 and even then we were only talking 3-4 cm..(my location).

    Best of luck to the whole S.E...❄❄

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
    2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    After looking at that UKV run would expect the Meto to go Amber in an area covering Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, Kent and Sussex and maybe as far west as Central London initially for the 1st Course taking us upto 2359 Sunday night. Then expect other warnings to crop up for Mon onwards next week. 

    Oh and please can we not have too many bust posts when it's still raining tomorrow at 5pm as we know the transition will occur sometime between 8pm tomorrow evening and Midnight. 

    Expecting some massive temp crashes probably of 6c in 6 hours

    Good luck everyone and good things come to those that wait 😬

    Are we in ramp mode yet Paul?! 🤔👍🏻

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    Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

    On the cusp now of somthing 'potentially' truly notable snow-wise for large parts of our region.

    After Sunday ( which still looks the best chance for notable falls region wide) we have a decent NE flow for a few days, I notice a trough feature heading in on the latest ukmo fax for Monday,this will be a feature to keep an eye on too.

    Ice days for at least four days with maximum temperatures now of -1c between Sunday and Thursday.Notable for any historical winter freeze that.

    A slight warming showing now for Thursday ( might change) and could be temporary as winds veer SE in response perhaps to a sliding Low or  trough disruption 'out west' trying to make inroads against the block.

    I will certainly take what's on offer  with a happy heart here on the Sussex coast.

     

    Edited by sunnijim
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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
    3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    After looking at that UKV run would expect the Meto to go Amber in an area covering Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, Kent and Sussex and maybe as far west as Central London initially for the 1st Course taking us upto 2359 Sunday night. Then expect other warnings to crop up for Mon onwards next week. 

    Oh and please can we not have too many bust posts when it's still raining tomorrow at 5pm as we know the transition will occur sometime between 8pm tomorrow evening and Midnight. 

    Expecting some massive temp crashes probably of 6c in 6 hours

    Good luck everyone and good things come to those that wait 😬

    with the amount of time we've had to wait, good isn't going to cut it.

    Excellent might just about suffice 😄

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    What a cold forecast me for in inner London loving the snow symbols as well, these cold easterlies don’t come round often so enjoy! 

    8DB4C52C-6D3A-41BA-B02C-F4012A01EC01.thumb.png.6bef3d3ad4a17e25cd6b90c857b5cd42.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Icklesham, near Rye East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Love hot sunshine and cold snowy weather
  • Location: Icklesham, near Rye East Sussex
    22 minutes ago, HammerJack said:

    Yep I noticed that too. To many IMBY posts starting to crop up regarding Sunday's snow. I actually thought it was a bust for the weekend reading some of the post, then I realised they were talking about next Thursday!! 😂
    Im sticking in here from now on.

    Ha ha yes I did exactly the same my brow became very deeply furrowed then I squinted at the date, and I muttered something about some being silly ol’numpties..! 😂😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Epsom
  • Location: Epsom
    57 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    UKMO is really rather agressive on its 00z run again, probably the most out of all of the global models:

    6am, this is all snow:

    us_model-en-999-0_modgbr_2021020500_54_4855_83.thumb.png.d1ee7d0874fed300fba1fbea63af9fe5.png

    BTW max depth of snow on this 00z run by Wednesday is 26cms in NW Kent. It also has a clear Thames streamer element, one of the stronger returns I've seen so far for it.

    Hi i've always been confused with these charts. Is this showing 6mm of precip over 6hours? If so how do you convert mm to cm? Thanks. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sevenoaks
  • Weather Preferences: Spring
  • Location: Sevenoaks

    Been noticing a few flocks of  geese flying westward from my location over the last day or two

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    12 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    After looking at that UKV run would expect the Meto to go Amber in an area covering Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, Kent and Sussex and maybe as far west as Central London initially for the 1st Course taking us upto 2359 Sunday night. Then expect other warnings to crop up for Mon onwards next week. 

    Yeah thats exactly what I would expect as well, the yellow warning to remain for the time being further west - and the ice will be a real problem further west even if it doesn't make it that far west with frozen surfaces, black ice may make things really dangerous on road once the cold sets in as it won't melt at all. I'd suspect there maybe more accidents if it doesn't snow given there won't be many visible signs how dangerous it will be.

    I think I'd keep an eye on a red warning at some point on Mon-Tues IF a streamer does develop for NW Kent, E.London and S.Essex, given that you'll likely already have a good 10-15cms on the ground, a further 10cms even from a reasonable moderate streamer quite possibly will tip the impact scale high enough to justify a red warning. If it doesn' get going, then amber probably suffices unless a more general training convective line sets up (ARPEGE is very keen on his idea)

    Something to keep an eye on IMO.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    2 minutes ago, Ols500 said:

    Hi i've always been confused with these charts. Is this showing 6mm of precip over 6hours? If so how do you convert mm to cm? Thanks. 

    Roughly 6cm but there are lots of varying factors. Colder conditions could see 8cm warmer 4cm. But if you got by 1:1 you won’t be far off 

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Snow chasing in the south east is 99.99% a forlorn effort, however, this is currently looking really good for us, with those in east of the region particularly looking to be in the bullseye (I think @Paul Sherman may be a happy bunny by Sunday morning).  As has been said, this will be a 'nowcasting' event as any instability in the flow could kick off streamers that won't be modelled correctly at this point.

    Just for sanity, apps on phones are really not worth getting too hung up about, whether good or bad (not stopped me checking every hour though!).

    I suspect in 36 hours time, this place is going to be absolutely buzzing!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    2 minutes ago, Ols500 said:

    Hi i've always been confused with these charts. Is this showing 6mm of precip over 6hours? If so how do you convert mm to cm? Thanks. 

    Yeah thats over 6hrs. That would suggest a period of moderate snowfall.

    If you want a really basic guide, 10x the rainfall totals will get you a *rough* guide of the snowfall. In reality its far more difficult to know and depends on the airmass, how cold it is, etc.  So that would be 6cms over 6hrs.

    10x ratio though this time may actually be reasonable given most areas are going to be below a few C below 0c once snow is on the deck.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Mile Oak, 3 miles West of Brighton UK, 130 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Mile Oak, 3 miles West of Brighton UK, 130 Meters above sea level
    15 minutes ago, Bevbrighton said:

    I’m in peacehaven so used to missing out but am still hopeful of a few hours of light snow Sunday, sounds like your not hopeful? 

    Hey...I'm hopeful but as you can imagine; given how hard it is for us to get snow down here even when a few miles inland gets buried...im just trying to keep my hopes realistic. 

    Best we can hope I think is that a Thames streamer sets up and that is a definite possibility, so we could get really lucky. 

    I think we will see snow falling but not massive amounts, I'll be running up around Ditchling Beacon and Devils Dyke on Sunday anyway as I want to make the best of it and go to where the snow will be deepest 🙂

     

    Just hoping I don't freeze to death lmfao

     

    you guys tend to fare better over there than we do here generally, you seem to be just that bit further East and it seems to make a bit of difference for some reason. 

    It will probably come down to looking at the radar and hoping 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: St Albans
  • Location: St Albans

    Sorry to rain on everyone's parade but, much as I really love to see the snow, I cannot say I'm looking forward to this coming event.

    Why? Because of the extremely harsh north easterlies that are expected to accompany the snow from the off on midnight Sunday and through most of Monday.

    Winds are forecast to gust at up to 40mph inland and over 50mph near coasts. That alone will take a lot of of the fun out of it for me. It's going to be brass monkeys with bells and whistles all the way through.

    Fine if that doesn't bother you but it's not really my cup of tea.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: NW London

    6 Icon at 45 hours 

    image.thumb.png.825fc18705505475ec87a6d9d6509d3b.png

     

    Still going at 57 hours

    image.thumb.png.8ee4a5a38361e574449ccace6da2f530.png

    Edited by Snowman31
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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    9 minutes ago, Southender said:

    Are we in ramp mode yet Paul?! 🤔👍🏻

    Yes Wednesday was the day I was aiming for and once we got it locked in it was all systems go. Hope the whole of the SE gets this though and not just Eastern End.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
    Just now, stainesbloke said:

    There have been vast flocks of birds seen flying westwards over the last few days, apparently 👍🏻😊 

    Hi SB,

    I mentioned to my Wife the other Morning, that there seemed to be a lot of activity, amongst the birds around here. 

    Well it is Sarff East London.

    On a serious note, they seemed to be scavenging around for scraps of food.

    Having looked more closely at the 00z Runs, I've tried to spy evidence of Streamers, setting up.

    Initially (Monday), it looks to me that the steering flow looks to be N.E., in theory that should favour a mid-Kent>E.Sussex Streamer.

    The Upper Air temps look ok, with a "slither" of -10's stretching down the E.Anglian Coast, down into N.Kent but as Alexis alluded to the other Day, more marginal 850's lie just across the Southern North Sea, in Belgium.

      ARPEGE 850hPa flow 00z Mon.8th Feb          ARPEGE 850hPa Temps 00z Mon.8th Feb  

         image.thumb.png.39db629a66c90f0b6924ecb72f10dc60.png                image.thumb.png.ad504cc5f852c6548d7dbc53461eda8c.png

    As I mentioned the other Day, I would also be a little concerned about the overhang of Cloud, from an Occluded Front, just to our East, as seen on the Fax Chart, below:

           METO FAX 00z Mon.8th Feb

    image.thumb.png.b6e0d9a13dde0504ba1062a72d196b33.png

    Perhaps the more technically gifted on here, could comment on whether or not, that would suppress any Convective type Ppn, from firing?

    By the time we get to Tuesday, the flow looks like turning into the E.N.E., in theory that should favour a Thames Streamer.

    The Upper Air temps look ok, with -9's traversing the Thames Corridor.

      ARPEGE 850hPa flow 00z Mon.8th Feb          ARPEGE 850hPa Temps 00z Mon.8th Feb  

        image.thumb.png.c6c7e7933afbb176c155c385a6dfef71.png                 image.thumb.png.80215362a45f90c26bb4f972286fe5ed.png

    That's my interpretation of the current situation regarding, "Snow Streamers" forming, in the S.E. of our Region.

    It may be we'll need to frequently check the Radar Returns, over the Southern North Sea/Thames Estuary, to see how it's "behaving", in regard to any "Snow Streamers", forming.

    Snowfall amounts? How long is a piece of String? The Radar should give some clues, for that information.

    I'm sure some on the Model Thread but let this Spell, start first!!

    What I would say about that and it's been mentioned, further back up the Thread.

    If any deep Cold can entrench across the U.K., and we can develop some height rises to our N./N.E., the arrival of Atlantic sourced air, may be prematurely Forecast.

    Regards,

    Tom 👍 ❄️

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