South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Reefseeker]

35 minutes ago, MAF said:

yes! thats the one i wanted to quote. @Paul Sherman did a fantastic job in that post and it's something through all my years on net-weather i will remember

I remember that analysis by @Paul Sherman so well, it's what got me into the forum as it impressed me so much. We got an amazing snowfall in SW London out of the 2009 event but it didn't last that long on the ground, however the 2010 event was fantastic and stuck around for quite some time, with supermarket car parks looking like something out of an American film with snow piled up everywhere. One of my favourite memories is of my son running on the frozen snow to his trampolining class at 8am on a Saturday morning pretending to be Mario dashing across the ice. The 2018 BFTE didn't deliver much locally, so I'm hoping this year's offering is more akin to 2009/10.

One thing that's niggling me is @kold weather has had some concerns a streamer might not deliver snow that far west, but I thought a Thames Streamer could reach as far as the west country in the correct conditions, or have I got that completely wrong? Also, I agree with @TomSE12's list of people he pays attention to in these set-ups for good quality information, including Kold - stick with them to know how it's going to go (as much as we can). Actually I can't wait until we head into our regionals ready for the big event now that the MAD is so overflowing.

Grey and coldish today with rain about; the park was unbelievably wet and muddy. Good luck everyone

Edited February 4, 2021 by Reefseeker

[FetchCB]

17 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Thanks Mick, I really enjoyed putting that together even though it hurts soooo much and on Monday and Tuesday this week we had a few minutes silence to remember the event - Hahahaha

Btw that Meto chart Froze posted above is telling for the Thames Estuary as wel with us having upwards of 200% per cent of our average Jan Rainfall. In fact amazingly my weather station is on 204mm as of today and its still raining meaning we have had 1/3rd of our annual 610mm average for SE Essex.

I remember being on the forum that night and you bemoaning that fact that you were not seeing any snow whereas I myself was in West London getting dumped on

[Flaked Queen]

I would like to experience thunder snow ️ I’m getting braver 

[weathertoski]

8 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

surely 2004 was the daddy for thundersnow - a near nationwide event as the squall front pushed south across the whole of the uk. Not a remarkable snow event in itself as was rain to snow - but a unique weather event in my memory.

Yes, that was insanely heavy, even though it only lasted a few minutes. 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Reefseeker said:

One thing that's niggling me is @kold weather has had some concerns a streamer might not deliver snow that far west, but I thought a Thames Streamer could reach as far as the west country in the correct conditions, or have I got that completely wrong? Also, I agree with @TomSE12's list of people he pays attention to in these set-ups for good quality information, including Kold - stick with them to know how it's going to go (as much as we can). Actually I can't wait until we into our regionals ready for the big event now that the MAD is so overflowing.

Grey and coldish today with rain about; the park was unbelievably wet and muddy. Good luck everyone

To be fair Reef streamers are mighty hard to forecast at the best of times and have a habit of surpassing forecasts.

All depends on whether a streamer even sets up (no certainties at all) and also how strong it ends up being. A moderate event probably will reach you but won't be too impressive. If it gets stronger though then your right in the firing line. For the BFTE I was literally at the last station for the convection, they were literally withering away overhead but got a light dusting still as it was so cold everything stayed on the ground, probably won't have that luxury this time.

The good news is the models have up the instability a little with the flow over the 06z runs.

BTW - I also can't wait to stay in this thread soon, I'm already starting to spend increasing time in here now.

[Southender]

22 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Thanks Mick, I really enjoyed putting that together even though it hurts soooo much and on Monday and Tuesday this week we had a few minutes silence to remember the event - Hahahaha

But the question is, do you see the same happening again early-mid next week?

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, Snowflake Queen said:

I would like to experience thunder snow ️ I’m getting braver 

if you stay indoors, you'll be fine

[alexisj9]

15 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Having heard Thundersnow 4 times in my life I can tell you the 1987 spell contained the most with if I remember correctly 5 seperate showers containing claps of thunder. 1991 contained 2 and the December 2010 event containing 2 events on the 2nd and 17th december. The February 2009 spell never contained any thundersnow here.

I got some thunder snow from a northerly when I lived in West Norwood, not sure when it was. After 91 though. It was that event when the winds were just perfect for a phenomenon, that sent showers SW from the gap, with a spin on them. I remember the forecaster getting rather excited about this rare thing, it had a name I can't remember. Anyway it was just like a summer storm but with lots and lots of snow 

[Coopsy]

Latest met office forecast for the weekend....

There could be a real mix of emotions saturday into Sunday in here.

Currently it looks like north of London doing very well based on this forecast but a slight tweak and the extreme south east could also be in with a chance. 

 

 

 

[MAF]

2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

if you stay indoors, you'll be fine

or, like my wife's nan, go hide in the wardrobe. yes, she was small enough to do so.

[Flaked Queen]

4 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

if you stay indoors, you'll be fine

No I’m even braver that that now

[MAF]

Just now, Coopsy said:

Latest met office forecast for the weekend....

There could be a real mix of emotions saturday into Sunday in here.

Currently it looks like north of London doing very well based on this forecast but a slight tweak and the extreme south east could also be in with a chance. 

 

 

 

And that's why i reserve judgement until Saturday

[Flaked Queen]

1 minute ago, MAF said:

or, like my wife's nan, go hide in the wardrobe. yes, she was small enough to do so.

That’s what I used to do hide anywhere 

[rwtwm]

Hello everyone, 

I've been lurking on this forum for years and reading the charts for even longer (first got into the weather in the run up the heatwave of 2016). I won't go into too much detail but I received some pretty bad news today, and given the excitement over the coming spell I thought that finally getting involved might help take my mind off of things. 

Obviously there's a range of options for the coming week, but they vary from a decent spell of winter weather to an exceptional one. Here in East London, we are often sheltered from the streamers unless the wind direction is just so, so I'm focusing on both the 'limpet' low on Sunday as it slides away and the first slider under the block as our potential big opportunities. If everything falls just so, this could be a spell to rival 1991 in my memory (my first weather memory). If the easterly orients correctly and the uppers get cold enough for showers to get miles inland it could be even better. 

To the person above in Walthamstow, can I recommend Wanstead Park? It's not too far to walk from there (depending on whereabouts you are) and looks great in most weathers. 

[Methuselah]

ooh ah Cantonaaaa! 

 

[kold weather]

12z GFS looks like its extending the moderate snowfall further SW covering basically the entire region.

Though hard to tell without seeing the closer in image. Also waiting to see what the 12z ICON shows for balance.

Looks like snowfall for the whole area on the morning hours before becoming increasingly restricted to the East of this region.

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[Coopsy]

2 minutes ago, MAF said:

And that's why i reserve judgement until Saturday

Agreed as conversely it could go further north and more in the rain.

Thats said the cold is the one progressing so you’d think it’d push through and hopefully bring in more people for the chance of snow. 

It really is setting up to be an interesting spell 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Coopsy

[Flaked Queen]

9 minutes ago, rwtwm said:

Hello everyone, 

I've been lurking on this forum for years and reading the charts for even longer (first got into the weather in the run up the heatwave of 2016). I won't go into too much detail but I received some pretty bad news today, and given the excitement over the coming spell I thought that finally getting involved might help take my mind off of things. 

Obviously there's a range of options for the coming week, but they vary from a decent spell of winter weather to an exceptional one. Here in East London, we are often sheltered from the streamers unless the wind direction is just so, so I'm focusing on both the 'limpet' low on Sunday as it slides away and the first slider under the block as our potential big opportunities. If everything falls just so, this could be a spell to rival 1991 in my memory (my first weather memory). If the easterly orients correctly and the uppers get cold enough for showers to get miles inland it could be even better. 

To the person above in Walthamstow, can I recommend Wanstead Park? It's not too far to walk from there (depending on whereabouts you are) and looks great in most weathers. 

Welcome

[Uxbridge90]

The charts just keep on giving don't they? Looking incredibly exciting for our part of the world. I think knowing that even if there's some hiccups on the way there's a few more opportunities after.

 

[Blessed Weather]

9 minutes ago, rwtwm said:

Hello everyone, 

I've been lurking on this forum for years and reading the charts for even longer (first got into the weather in the run up the heatwave of 2016). I won't go into too much detail but I received some pretty bad news today, and given the excitement over the coming spell I thought that finally getting involved might help take my mind off of things. 

Obviously there's a range of options for the coming week, but they vary from a decent spell of winter weather to an exceptional one. Here in East London, we are often sheltered from the streamers unless the wind direction is just so, so I'm focusing on both the 'limpet' low on Sunday as it slides away and the first slider under the block as our potential big opportunities. If everything falls just so, this could be a spell to rival 1991 in my memory (my first weather memory). If the easterly orients correctly and the uppers get cold enough for showers to get miles inland it could be even better. 

To the person above in Walthamstow, can I recommend Wanstead Park? It's not too far to walk from there (depending on whereabouts you are) and looks great in most weathers. 

A warm welcome to the forum. A great time to join - enjoy!

[Mark Bayley]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

12z GFS looks like its extending the moderate snowfall further SW covering basically the entire region.

Though hard to tell without seeing the closer in image. Also waiting to see what the 12z ICON shows for balance.

Looks like snowfall for the whole area on the morning hours before becoming increasingly restricted to the East of this region.

Yes, although snow totals appear to be slightly lower. At this stage though best not to pay close attention. That band will still shift around a little, although seems likely we'll get a decentish covering by Sunday evening!

 

 

[Stu_London]

9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

12z GFS looks like its extending the moderate snowfall further SW covering basically the entire region.

Though hard to tell without seeing the closer in image. Also waiting to see what the 12z ICON shows for balance.

Looks like snowfall for the whole area on the morning hours before becoming increasingly restricted to the East of this region.

Not great uppers for Kent though - hopefully it just the GFS being the GFS

[throwoff]

Well the 12z is a big upgrade for overall snow fall but it does firmly divide the north and south of Kent.

North Kent could do very well but the people down South could be very marginal. Hoping for a shift south in the pub and 00z tonight.

[MAF]

Just now, throwoff said:

Well the 12z is a big upgrade for overall snow fall but it does firmly divide the north and south of Kent.

North Kent could do very well but the people down South could be very marginal. Hoping for a shift south in the pub and 00z tonight.

but lets not forget, the 00Z is a model, and won't change a single thing that nature wants to do

[Sparky68]

Been lashing it down here for the last hour. Wheres that cold front when you need it!