South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

40cm? In the Triangle? I'll take it!     

40cm!!! - can you really believe that? that is a monumental amount of snow, 16 inches, even that would beat 1987 in the south east. At least the trends are better this morning taking the marginality out of it even where I live, particularly from ECM.

[alexisj9]

27 minutes ago, TommyB said:

BFTE 2018 wasn't particularly notable for snow here, but the temperatures were absolutely freezing, especially for March daytime. Hoping this spell may bring more snow, we did very well here on the coast in 2010! Have had barely a flake since 2018, and there was barely anything before that since March 2013 (which was a very good event!)

Yep here it was more notable for cold, and hours of freezing rain. At least it did turn to snow for a bit though.

[Southender]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

One thing to note that is not being reported on the MAD Thread is the strength of the Wind on the Norfolk and Suffolk coasts with 50mph winds this with any snow showers will create blizzard condition which in itself is rare in the Uk. Some small communities could become very much in trouble with any drifting.

How you feeling Paul? Think we may actually have a chance in our neck of the woods....the pond looks cooler, dew points look favourable, uppers good, winds good...

[Methuselah]

Just now, Froze were the Days said:

40cm!!! - can you really believe that? that is a monumental amount of snow, 16 inches, even that would beat 1987 in the south east. At least the trends are better this morning taking the marginality out of it even where I live, particularly from ECM.

Not really, no... probably nearer to 4cm!

[alexisj9]

23 minutes ago, southbank said:

morning folks - can anyone remember the last time we had a proper channel low that gave a decent covering here in SE ?

2018/1991/2009 where easterlies / thames streamers 

 

was dec 1st 2010 a channel low?

2013, but I missed it, lived in Croydon then. But it only hit Kent and Sussex.

[paget]

Morning! 
 

im still not going to hold my breath, the meto forecast (I know don’t take them too literally!) still only has a couple of flakes for Sunday and nothing Monday!! 
 

we had some a couple of weeks ago which was lovely so I’m not too concerned! I just hope everyone gets to see some! 
 

I think this far west may miss out but that’s ok! And it’s never a done deal!!

[lewis028]

6 minutes ago, Southender said:

Beautiful warning updates from the METO for the region!!

Quite confident now we will break the approaching 3 year snowless spell in our neck of the woods

[Paul Sherman]

2 minutes ago, Southender said:

How you feeling Paul? Think we may actually have a chance in our neck of the woods....the pond looks cooler, dew points look favourable, uppers good, winds good...

Gunna say it - NAILED ON!

If this fails I am deactivating my account and moving onto another hobby maybe Train Spotting at Rayleigh Station 

[lewis028]

7 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Done it 2 days ago , but didn’t want to announce it

I have one coming Saturday

[Southender]

Just now, Paul Sherman said:

Gunna say it - NAILED ON!

If this fails I am deactivating my account and moving onto another hobby maybe Train Spotting at Rayleigh Station 

Oh no....you've jinxed it. 

[Downpour]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Gunna say it - NAILED ON!

If this fails I am deactivating my account and moving onto another hobby maybe Train Spotting at Rayleigh Station 

[southbank]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Quite a bold Met office warning actually for Saturday-Sunday for the SE/EA region and E.Midlands in particular:

In line with what some of the global models are showing as well.

As it notes, the showers may well be hit and miss but any extended persistant snowfall is going to be far less likely to miss areas that are unlucky.

Thats reads like an amber warning to me, its just they obviously aren't quite confident enough yet to go that high.

agreed prob holding back on an amber until Hi Res really come into focus as we have know Global models to be wrong 48 hours away !!!

this is firming up to be a really exciting times for us in SE - if it develops into a memorable spell i justy love the buzz in here as its great - specially those who put in all nighters ala  Feb 09 and Dec 2010 !!!

[EML Network]

I'm not expecting diddly squat along the South Coast, it will rain here like it ALWAYS does and a few miles inland will get a pasting of snow. 

 

Just as well I'm a ultra marathon runner though, because if the snow won't come to me My legs will take me to it :-) elevation I think will be important along the coast here, South Downs should do fine, but a wet mushy mix of sleet and wet snow on the immediate cost line IMO. 

East Anglia, London, Essex, North Kent, Mid sussex, Surrey all look primed for a good steamy dump of the lovely white stuff though

[Froze were the Days]

This shows something completely different to the above in terms of snow depths so confused (and it doesn't take a lot)...

any answers?

9F711F7D-A7DE-4E12-A867-5AABAC91C0C9.webp

[Timstar1]

Great updates from Met office, my phone notifications just went mad!!  Thing are verifying, nice to have met office onboard too

[craigore]

BBC app has me dry (East Kent)  throughout mon , tues ,weds...

Surely we would see more snow showers on that cold feed across the N sea ??

[southbank]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Gunna say it - NAILED ON!

If this fails I am deactivating my account and moving onto another hobby maybe Train Spotting at Rayleigh Station 

hoping we get lucky across the whole region so all members in here get to enjoy - still holding my excitement re snowfall potential sunday until we see hi res but the meto seem bullish so fingers crossed no last minute spanners

[Southender]

1 minute ago, southbank said:

agreed prob holding back on an amber until Hi Res really come into focus as we have know Global models to be wrong 48 hours away !!!

this is firming up to be a really exciting times for us in SE - if it develops into a memorable spell i justy love the buzz in here as its great - specially those who put in all nighters ala  Feb 09 and Dec 2010 !!!

Super Sunday night all-nighter check list.

Beer 

Snacks 

Superbowl 

Regional chat 

Radar 

Lampost 

Window 

[Paul Sherman]

Yes would be nice for all areas to get a big dumping to end the winter on a positive note

Like Darren I believe there is a lot of scope for that warning to get bumped up the Matrix to an Amber probably around 1030am on Saturday morning when confidence is more apparant and the more Hi Res Models are taken into account.

Could be an epic walk on Sunday though 

[Mark wheeler]

7 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Gunna say it - NAILED ON!

If this fails I am deactivating my account and moving onto another hobby maybe Train Spotting at Rayleigh Station 

I’m in to model trains however they won’t see the light of day this coming week. 

[Vesuvius]

9 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Gunna say it - NAILED ON!

If this fails I am deactivating my account and moving onto another hobby maybe Train Spotting at Rayleigh Station 

That’s my hobby on days it doesn’t snow. I’ve only missed three days in the last 6 years. 

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, EML Network said:

I'm not expecting diddly squat along the South Coast, it will rain here like it ALWAYS does and a few miles inland will get a pasting of snow. 

Worth noting that you won't have an onshore flow this time where you are, so you've got as good a chance as the rest of us this time, there won't be much if any a marked difference between the snow inland and snow by the south coast.

Just got to get the precip in first!

Ignore all the apps, they will be no better than useless if they are using global model data in these sorts of events.

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[Daniel*]

14 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

Met office warnings have been moved to cover the SE as well

Finally they got there in end! Active from 12:00 Saturday to 23:59 Sunday:

“This is all likely to bring areas of accumulating snow through the period with some icy stretches developing, with some parts seeing 5-10 cm, possibly 15 cm of snow. Although disruption from this event could occur anywhere within this region, the Midlands and south-east England is the area most likely to see disruptive snow accumulating more widely, from later Saturday until the middle of Sunday.”

 

Monday 00:00 to 23:59:

With the more persistent snow from Sunday in the south-east pulling away, the UK is expected to be affected by a cold, easterly wind, with snow showers. These will develop over sea areas and be blown inland, with some places possibly seeing quite frequent although mainly light showers. Some places however will miss these altogether. Where they do occur, 1-4 cm of additional snow is most probable for the majority of areas, perhaps 3-7 cm over higher ground exposed to the east.

[simonhall6]

Met office Yellow warnings for the whole SE now been issued by the met office for both Sunday and Monday

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by simonhall6
Beat me to it Daniel lol

[Mark Bayley]

An exciting update from the MO! Like others have said, that will get to Amber if anything like the GFS comes off (with extension of the yellow warning until at least Wednesday)