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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent
    8 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

    I don't think very many are saying there won't be any significant snow, but the 'Darcy' phase was badly out, and the supposedly guaranteed sub-zero temperatures also haven't materialised.  I suspect there may be more chances to come of sub-zero temperatures to allow whatever falls to settle, but, given the North Sea's unusual warmth this year, it's by no means certain.  What leaves Holland at -3C/-2C gets here quite widely at 0C/+1C after travelling over +5/+6C water.

    Temp here is -1 and DP is -2

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    I suppose not really weather related but I just wanted to say thank you all so much.  I've really really enjoyed following the posts today.  I am awaiting Open Heart Surgery sometime this year and you

    Oh my f**king god. How many times does it need saying? 1. The amber doesn't expire until tomorrow midday 2. Widespread heavy showers & streamers are going to follow later, tonight,

    Evening. Here's my estimated #snow depths for England and Wales that I expect until noon on Monday, using a blend of high resolution models.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wallington, S London (now working from home)
  • Weather Preferences: hot sunny summers to ripen the veg and cold snowy winters of course
  • Location: Wallington, S London (now working from home)

    Goodness me, it is hard to keep up on here with the amount of posts. I guess that is why we split when there is an event. 

    If I quote anyone, I'm then taken to the latest page and Iose my place! Even as I type this I can see another 14+ replies I'll miss when I click submit🤪

     

    Temp and dew at -1.2c in the garden, but the small amount of laying snow is deceptive, it is the sort that melts and goes brown as soon as you step on it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
    5 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Hammering it down again in Leigh On Sea after a 1 hour break of Light Snizzle.

    Temp has not got above 0c since it dropped below at 545am.

    Oh and one Facebook Page I give some forecasts for I have told to do one as one guy was complaining that my 6am start of the snow was delayed by 2 hours, this is what you are dealing with these days, Its a shame but I will not do it anymore and probably wont give out any thoughts soon on here as well, not worth the effort if the wind is in the wrong direction for instance.

    Good Luck with your streamers over the next 48 hours.

     

    Ah sod them mate! The Eastwood group? We know when and if it’s going to snow, that’s all that matters! Did you manage to get some sledging in?

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    Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
    2 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

    Just checked in again on the radar but not too much to get excited about just yet for inland EA, I suspect that will change into tonight as the vorticity and wind direction shifts. A great post by Nick earlier that showed this sequence and NW shift. 
     

    Some posters are expecting the band to stay static in its current position into tomorrow but I’m not onboard with that - it may seem static until this evening but it will shift and change into convective bands of showers I suspect and effect different places. Most models seem to agree with this. The interesting bit will be how much snow it can deliver later on. 

    This is pretty much spot on I think

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, (Very) East London
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, sun and snow.
  • Location: Upminster, (Very) East London
    55 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Darcy was never forecasted to hit us at all...what we were always going to get was a wrap around feature from a weak low pressure that formed in the channel and then got absorbed by a new French low.

    I think what might have happened is the LP feature ended up about 40-50 miles CLOSER to us, I noted that last night around 2am. What that did was delay the cold air wrapping around.

    What was expected:

    The models all expected the cold air to be in place by 4-6am originally. This would have meant that snow would have fallen earlier, settled earlier and started a feedback loop which ensured more and more fell as snow and then settle, and that would battle the temperature increases that you nearly always get in a stable 850hpa temperature set-up as you reach later morning hours.

    What happened in reality:

    The cold air took a few hours longer to get down as everything was displaced a little NW, which meant a few hours longer of rain during what should have been optimal settling hours. So the feedback loop that was expected by the models never got going until the air was already starting to warm after night time, which meant the feedback loop only really was able to get going where the precip was strong enough and intense enough to overwhelm the warming caused by the failed feedback loop. 

    I suspect the evening time will get ther eventually with snow and settling, but its a real question of how much is actually left of the system by then, might be feeding of scraps by then.

    Thank you for your honest and detailed responses. I definitely value the input of Paul S and yourself on this thread who are able to see through the emotional rollercoaster. 

    It's interesting. At the start of the week, the models (well some of them) were showing the low a bit higher with the consequence being the delayed arrival of the cold to the SE.  The trend seemed to move away from that during the week with the low gradually dropping south. Funny that it seems to have jumped back slightly at the last moment. 

    I guess the trend isn't always your friend!

    BTW for general info, it's really ramped up here in the last 10 minutes. Starting to settle on the roads. It looks like we have (finally) been elevated to Defcon 2.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Linford, Essex
  • Location: Linford, Essex
    3 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

    I wasn't.... but I'll bet he was forecasting 'snowmageddon' for today.... 🙄

    I'm not saying nothing. There's a few major ramps from others in one of his threads too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
    3 minutes ago, craigore said:

    Not true

    I'm in Ramsgate/Manston.

    Been below freezing all day this far..

    You cant get mch closer to the sea than me..

    Yes, you've got pretty much the shortest sea track of all there.  Anywhere with a significantly longer sea track, which is most of the SE with this flow, has been less cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Wintry and stormy weather
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
    8 minutes ago, Wynter said:

    Just incase anyone was wondering what Steve Murr's take on today so far is...

    He hasn't posted on his twitter for 19hrs. 😋

    Says a lot really.

    He'd touted 50cm..... 🙄

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    9 minutes ago, Wynter said:

    Just incase anyone was wondering what Steve Murr's take on today so far is...

    He hasn't posted on his twitter for 19hrs. 😋

    Says a lot really.

    Probably feeling a bit stupid after predicting 50cm.

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    10 minutes ago, Wynter said:

    Just incase anyone was wondering what Steve Murr's take on today so far is...

    He hasn't posted on his twitter for 19hrs. 😋

    Says a lot really.

    I'm not surprised he left the forum. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
  • Location: Singleton, Kent

    I really don’t understand this panic and talks of the bust of the century.

    Layman’s terms:

    1. Darcy is a low pressure system stretching from northern central Europe to the med. It’s not a storm that’s meant to hit us like system coming from the Atlantic do. It’s pumping mild air and a lot of moisture north where it meets cold air in an East > West airflow. The moist air gets stuck as it can move further north due to high pressure.

    2. Our region has been sub zero since 7am and it has been snowing since. Models have been showing pretty much exactly what has happened so far, including a lack of accumulations.

    3. Temps will drop to -3 this evening while snow will continue to push in from the North Sea. It will accumulate. This will continue through the night and a good part of tomorrow. 
     

    4. If we are lucky we will then see showers push in from the North Sea thanks to the Easterly flow and the warm sea.

    The forecast says exactly that as do the warnings. The amber only came into force this morning and doesn’t expire until noon tomorrow. Based on the drifts already happening on the Downs with some country lanes being close to impassable and those conditions bound to spread and worse, the warning is spot on.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Storm That Lasts 3 Days
  • Location: Brighton

    I lost my hopes, just checked a couple of graphs and nothing coming up for Brighton. It was showing heavy snow for Thursday but that’s gone too. It’s been years without seeing a lying snow. I am so jealous of my friends in NYC, they see at least 1 big snowstorm every winter 😞

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    Posted
  • Location: west suffolk 12 metres asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/misty sunrises/
  • Location: west suffolk 12 metres asl

    It's snowing🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Medway, Kent
  • Location: Medway, Kent
    14 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

    Further west than me and weve nothing in Gravesend!! Apparently even the high ground of Lordswood in Medway hasn't got any pavement covering so doesn't bode well for us🙄

    I am in Walderslade and can confirm, nothing on paths or roads, although approximately 2cm on my garden table. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Farnham, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Cold Cold
  • Location: Farnham, Surrey

    Afternoon, I’ve been trying to keep up with posts! Seems some areas got a good amount! Hope you had fun in it! 
     

    been a cold windy day here in Farnham, surrey, too far west for a flake unfortunately so far! 
     

    temp 1.9

    dp -0.8

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    9 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Hammering it down again in Leigh On Sea after a 1 hour break of Light Snizzle.

    Temp has not got above 0c since it dropped below at 545am.

    Oh and one Facebook Page I give some forecasts for I have told to do one as one guy was complaining that my 6am start of the snow was delayed by 2 hours, this is what you are dealing with these days, Its a shame but I will not do it anymore and probably wont give out any thoughts soon on here as well, not worth the effort if the wind is in the wrong direction for instance.

    Good Luck with your streamers over the next 48 hours.

     

    Some people don’t appreciate the difficulties of forecasting these setups! It’s a nightmare for sure. I’m pretty well trusted amongst friends and family, but that’s as far as it will go I reckon. Receiving abuse over social media is beyond pathetic! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham. Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham. Essex

    What everyone is forgetting, ...temperature  being posted is Air temperature.

    the surface temperature is higher , most likely 3c  higher.

    this is the reason it's not settling in a lot of places

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    5 minutes ago, lewis028 said:

    Ah sod them mate! The Eastwood group? We know when and if it’s going to snow, that’s all that matters! Did you manage to get some sledging in?

    Yh Cherry Orchard was busy. Great to see people walking dogs and kids having fun, its what they need.

    And yes if you dont get slagged for being too technical you get slagged for other things, just not worth the effort and wont be getting on more of mine.

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    Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton
    20 minutes ago, Great Plum said:

    I remember that - such a damp squib!

    Ah I was moving that day from Beckenham to Sutton . Actually woke up to several inches in beckenham worried about the removal men not getting up the road. Was all gone by lunchtime .

     

    That February 2005 easterly caused many disagreements on here with its “ its a cold easterly “

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

    The persistent light-moderate snizzle is accumulating into small piles in corners and on trees, but nothing much else unfortunately

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    Posted
  • Location: Sittingbourne, Kent
  • Location: Sittingbourne, Kent
    23 minutes ago, clark3r said:

    Still wet moderate snow, need the temp to drop to freezing, anyone got any idea when temperatures are expected to drop to freezing? Looks like ice will be the main hazard 

    We are at -1 here in Sittingbourne.

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