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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
    12 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Yep agree with that 100%

    35 long months must surely be under fire now lol

    Great to have you back Paul!

    Mind you, it’s only when you decided to take a break that the models suddenly started looking good again so, don’t take this personally, but do you mind bu**ering off again if they take another turn for the worse!

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    I suppose not really weather related but I just wanted to say thank you all so much.  I've really really enjoyed following the posts today.  I am awaiting Open Heart Surgery sometime this year and you

    Oh my f**king god. How many times does it need saying? 1. The amber doesn't expire until tomorrow midday 2. Widespread heavy showers & streamers are going to follow later, tonight,

    Evening. Here's my estimated #snow depths for England and Wales that I expect until noon on Monday, using a blend of high resolution models.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    Just now, lawrenk said:

    Great to have you back Paul!

    Mind you, it’s only when you decided to take a break that the models suddenly started looking good again so, don’t take this personally, but do you mind bu**ering off again if they take another turn for the worse!

    Biting my nails now eagerly awaiting GooFuS offering on the 18z Eeeeeeek

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    19 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    A very good question Ed

    One thing is for sure the night time temps being progged could get down to double digit minuses in places over snowcover so frigid cold. Add in the strength of the wind which could make a +1c temp feel like -10c early next week

    Looking forward to it

    I have to say the snow we had on Sunday stuck around much longer on the grass than I was expecting despite maxes around 4-5c.

    We should be a decent way below that so hopefully providing you can get a good base to start with things should be ok.

    Selfishly for my location the GFS winds probably just a little too much true NE at the lower levels for large parts of the run for my area to get involved with the fun, however this king airflow will obviously be good for parts of Kent that have had basically nothing.

    Still, difficult to pin down the exact locations of these lows and that will make a big difference on the exact wind vector.

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    Posted
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)

    A very snowy GFS Para, a good 5  to 10cm quite widely across our region by Wednesday morning (more in East Anglia) 

    image.thumb.png.9b11a7cacbfa0e2660138592bf8bb020.png

     

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    Meteociel propose des cartes de prévisions du modèle americain GFS parallèle

     

    Edited by Mark Bayley
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    Posted
  • Location: Mayfield, East Sussex 112m asl/ Stalham, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes!
  • Location: Mayfield, East Sussex 112m asl/ Stalham, Norfolk
    1 hour ago, lottiekent said:

    Trying so hard not to be excited about the prospects for us down here. Mainly so the let down isn’t as great (especially after the last few weekend washouts)

    I keep telling myself I won’t look on here all day then find myself having this thread open on a tab alongside my work all day!

    Me too, I think my husband is beginning to think I'm having an affair...every time I sit down I stick my head in my phone to look at this thread or the models!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
    2 minutes ago, Darkcloud said:

    Me too, I think my husband is beginning to think I'm having an affair...every time I sit down I stick my head in my phone to look at this thread or the models!

    My missus doesn't like me looking at model on my phone either.

    Mind you, they're probably a different kind altogether . . .

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Only a risk at the moment, but given the growing model consensus up to Sunday, we do need to be watching for the potential for a band of rain to push north out of France into our region, turning to snow or already arriving as snow as cold air from the north east engages this. Just a risk at the moment but the front could stall over us for a lengthy period like the GFS does on this run. No point getting too excited but if there is a genuine risk then I would expect a more precise warning from the metoffice to appear, especially towards the north east of the region (East Suffolk/Norfolk).

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    London usually does very well out of this type of scenario. Those in East Anglia and Kent should do some bulk shopping asap lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL

    I will deffo take what the para is showing for my area. Model trend seem to be good for the southeast now 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    More positive runs today. 

    The 18z seems to be an improvement on mixing in the higher uppers as the low clears a bit cleaner, which should help keep us cold. 

    The low clearing also seems to be dragging the ppn south - BBC graphics had an EA and midlands event earlier, but is now trending more to the southeast. The worry is that it trends into the channel and northern France, however we are only 72-96 hours from it now, so hopefully no more dramatic deviation.

    Doesn't look like an epic long lasting spell however its interesting that the GFS has delayed the breakdown from Wednesday to Thursday in the space of a couple of runs. If that pattern continues, we might squeeze laying snow out until next weekend. 

    In any event, the last thing we need in the country is a highly disruptive long lasting severe winter outbreak, so putting aside whatever selfish preferences we have, a short lived boom, might be best for all in the long run.

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

    Pub run giving most of Kent 48 hours solid snowfall.

    LIGHT THE BEACONS

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    Posted
  • Location: Tottenham, N London
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, dry summers
  • Location: Tottenham, N London

    Think it's now safe to say this region is going to see the coldest and snowiest spell of the winter next week 

    Impossible to see where will get the most snow, but as often happens, more snow events pop up during these scenarios than is currently being modelled! ❄️

     

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    Posted
  • Location: N Kent. Medway
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: N Kent. Medway
    2 hours ago, Snowy Bob said:

    Can I say it?

    Is the fabled Kent Clipper a possibility if any low comes in off the continent on Sunday into Monday?

    The 10 day outlook shows an occlusion Sunday, pulling away SE which I would like to think might drag some colder air behind it. The coasts generally do have a wee issue with sea temps of course but its (in my own opinion) a reasonable chance.  Chances do improve into the new week as the colder air draws in. The T850s also drop which should aid convection over the north sea, And with any convection, troughs/disturbances can set up at short notice increasing the chance of snow. A closer look on Saturday evening will give better insight!

    "get the cold air in place, the snow should follow" is an adage used often on netweather.

    Edit: does anyone have the Netherlands radar link to hand? Worth bookmarking for the coming days

    Edited by UKSnakey
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    Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent - 61m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent - 61m ASL
    3 minutes ago, UKSnakey said:

    The 10 day outlook shows an occlusion Sunday, pulling away SE which I would like to think might drag some colder air behind it. The coasts generally do have a wee issue with sea temps of course but its (in my own opinion) a reasonable chance.  Chances do improve into the new week as the colder air draws in. The T850s also drop which should aid convection over the north sea, And with any convection, troughs/disturbances can set up at short notice increasing the chance of snow. A closer look on Saturday evening will give better insight!

    "get the cold air in place, the snow should follow" is an adage used often on netweather.

    That was kinda my thinking, especially with disturbances nearby would almost cause any number of synopsis.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    30 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

     

    The low clearing also seems to be dragging the ppn south - BBC graphics had an EA and midlands event earlier, but is now trending more to the southeast. The worry is that it trends into the channel and northern France, however we are only 72-96 hours from it now, so hopefully no more dramatic deviation.

    Funny you should say that, as there are a few ensemble runs now trending further and further SE, something to keep an eye on as it may limit just how much snow falls, especially further west. Probably 20-30% of runs have it now further east, with probably half of those much further east to the extent even EA gets nothing from it.

    Mind you, we probably replace frontal snowfall with streamers and snow showers. Perhaps a little more hit and miss mind you than frontal systems.

    EDIT- actually probably  30-40% of the runs are further east this run!

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    1 hour ago, yamkin said:

     

    It’s not like you to ramp 😍😍😍

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    Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
    9 minutes ago, UKSnakey said:

     

    Edit: does anyone have the Netherlands radar link to hand? Worth bookmarking for the coming days

    This one? 

    WWW.NOODWEERCENTRALE.NL

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe near Dartford
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and hot summers
  • Location: Greenhithe near Dartford
    1 hour ago, Mark Bayley said:

    A very snowy GFS Para, a good 5  to 10cm quite widely across our region by Wednesday morning (more in East Anglia) 

    image.thumb.png.9b11a7cacbfa0e2660138592bf8bb020.png

     

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    Meteociel propose des cartes de prévisions du modèle americain GFS parallèle

     

    Loving that chart 🤪

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    Posted
  • Location: N Kent. Medway
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: N Kent. Medway
    2 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

    This one? 

    WWW.NOODWEERCENTRALE.NL

     

    Similar yes, but i recall it showed the se England on there as well. Mucho thankies though and have bookmarked too. The more radar views the better

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    Posted
  • Location: Tottenham, N London
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, dry summers
  • Location: Tottenham, N London

    As Paul mentioned, looks like uncomfortable wind chills here next week but look across the near continent <-20 chills.

    It's not out of the question that it could get even colder here with snow cover etc.

    windchillmon.thumb.png.92f30fbcc2910b29218fd1addc6d9704.png

    windchillthurscont.thumb.png.ce53ec8131150776dea3129da601b6a0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe near Dartford
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and hot summers
  • Location: Greenhithe near Dartford
    Just now, UKSnakey said:

    Similar yes, but i recall it showed the se England on there as well. Mucho thankies though and have bookmarked too. The more radar views the better

    What are the best radars to use , I know some you have to pay for?

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/ hot not mild muck!
  • Location: South Norfolk

    I think we are on the verge of something special in the E/SE. My girls got the bug from me years ago and have phoned tonite to say they will be over on Sunday for radar watching and hopefully everything else the magic white stuff affords us. I am sure in the next 24 hours we will start to dial in some clarity on the ifs buts and maybe’s. 

    Just for clarification my girls are under 16 and are within my child care bubble. Crazy times that we have to justify such things. 
    I hope you all enjoy the chase and hopefully the pot of white gold as well.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

    A very good question Ed

    One thing is for sure the night time temps being progged could get down to double digit minuses in places over snowcover so frigid cold. Add in the strength of the wind which could make a +1c temp feel like -10c early next week

    Looking forward to it

    Perhaps if I am lucky enough to get snowcover on unfrozen ground then I can remove a section before a night time freeze and the compare to further falls on uncovered and covered ground and see what firs best.  A bit of a blue peter experiment, but what the heck, lol. 

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    Posted
  • Location: N Kent. Medway
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: N Kent. Medway

    @gooner265 I'm biased to the netweather one personally. I also "cheat" by reading this topic as theres nothing more definitive and accurate than peoples own reports! Removes any anaprop (anomalous propagation/ "fake radar returns")

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