South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Jayces]

Morning campers, a quick scan of recent posts and a peek out of the window and I can understand some of the disappointment here currently.

I guess the delay from the original forecasted midnight start to now 7am for here just goes to show how challenging forecasting snow is.

Still, chin up, hang in there, it's getting colder and this is only the first day of a period that some are predicting could last into March!

[moogyboobles]

I appear to have a fellow lamppost watcher down my street! At this time in the morning why else would we both be frequently looking outside! 

Rain and possibly a few flakes mixed in here. Certainly is a biting wind. 

Edited February 7, 2021 by moogyboobles

[winterfreak]

Just now, Paul Sherman said:

This still looks like a Reverse Kent Clipper to me 

However many times I run the radar it does not get any better unless you are in Kent 

Mad isn't it?  Despite computing power, human experience and intuiution, it still behaves completely differently to the educated expectation

[TommyB]

1 minute ago, winterfreak said:

Morning! I feel frazzled 

Frazzled but too excited to sleep? I'm glad I got 3 hours haha!

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

This still looks like a Reverse Kent Clipper to me 

However many times I run the radar it does not get any better unless you are in Kent 

Yeah Paul the high resolution models all keep the action over Kent for the morning before we move into a more classic convective pattern by which time marginality shouldn't be an issue anymore thankfully.

During that time even I might have a chance at a light sprinkle of snow! Shock horror!

EDIT - it actually looks like its behaving like a streamer already doesn't it?

Edited February 7, 2021 by kold weather

[snowblizzard]

Just watched Darren Bett on BBC weather.

It looked like last nights data/forecast as still showing heavy falls for SE

Although he did say they don't expect heavy snow in SE on Monday.

I recon the updated forecasts this morning will be very different!

I'm getting the feeling this yet another damp squib fail! 

 

[Maidstone marginal]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think thats just mainly down to where the heavier precipitation has been falling so far this morning. Its been getting steadily stronger throughout the last 2hrs so I;m not surprised thats happened.

The good news is its spreading increasingly far out across Kent now. 

This is the 9am chart from 00z ARONE:

If anything the area east of Maidstone will likely be ahead of schedule. If anywhere will get a red warning, it will be along N.Kent.

Problem is north Kent is between broadstairs and Dartford. That's easily a 50 mile line. Do you mean north west Kent like around gravesend and west kingsdown?

[winterfreak]

Just now, TommyB said:

Frazzled but too excited to sleep? I'm glad I got 3 hours haha!

I managed about the same! Mind you I'm a crap sleeper anyway. A mouse farting three miles away wakes me up  The missus can sleep for Britain however

[Paul Sherman]

Just now, kold weather said:

Yeah Paul the high resolution models all keep the action over Kent for the morning before we move into a more classic convective pattern by which time marginality shouldn't be an issue anymore thankfully.

During that time even I might have a chance at a light sprinkle of snow! Shock horror!

Am almost certain you will get snow before me lol

[simonhall6]

1 hour ago, Kentspur said:

Buienradar.nl - neerslagradar voor komende 3 uur en 24 uur

WWW.BUIENRADAR.NL

---

Bekijk waar het de komende 3 uur en 24 uur regent in Nederland

 

 

This Dutch radar never bought into me seeing snow until 7Am possibly 8am looking at latest radar better than other models I guess that showed transition much earlier lets see what happens 

Don’t forget that Dutch radar is 1 hour ahead of us 

[winterfreak]

Just now, snowblizzard said:

Just watched Darren Bett on BBC weather.

It looked like last nights data/forecast as still showing heavy falls for SE

Although he did say they don't expect heavy snow in SE on Monday.

I recon the updated forecasts this morning will be very different!

I'm getting the feeling this yet another damp squib fail! 

 

Good morning Snowblizzard, fellow Tonbridgidian!! You North or South Tonbridge?

[Jamie M]

It's pretty dire here. Wet flakes though.

[snowblizzard]

Just now, winterfreak said:

Good morning Snowblizzard, fellow Tonbridgidian!! You North or South Tonbridge?

North, top of the Ridgeway

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Am almost certain you will get snow before me lol

Gosh your not getting snow till next winter then, best get comfortable with the wait!

Besides, I think the snow is going to have to go through you to get to me anyway! If you can't get some I may as well not even bother trying 

[winterfreak]

Just now, Jamie M said:

It's pretty dire here. Wet flakes though.

 

You at least have snow!!

[winterfreak]

A few flakes here. Maybe at a rate of about 1mm per day...

[fujita5]

Not expecting much in Clacton now. Heavier precip just offshore and looks likely to stay there. Wouldn't take much to get it here but experience tells me this is primarily a Kent event now.

[winterfreak]

1 minute ago, snowblizzard said:

North, top of the Ridgeway

Oh Ok, Top of Higham Lane here so not far 

[Paul Sherman]

Just now, kold weather said:

Gosh your not getting snow till next winter then, best get comfortable with the wait!

Besides, I think the snow is going to have to go through you to get to me anyway! If you can't get some I may as well not even bother trying 

5 Moderate Thunderstorm Busts from Convective weather last year with closest Lightning 50 miles away

So this Amber warning does not fill me with confidence, and any streamer could be wintry on the coast so would not bet against it.

I kind of sadistically would laugh if we got to 48 months without a snowflake at my latitude though

[Paul Sherman]

2 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

Not expecting much in Clacton now. Heavier precip just offshore and looks likely to stay there. Wouldn't take much to get it here but experience tells me this is primarily a Kent event now.

Thats exactly what I am seeing as well 

[TommyB]

5 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

I managed about the same! Mind you I'm a crap sleeper anyway. A mouse farting three miles away wakes me up  The missus can sleep for Britain however

Hahaha! I set an alarm for 4 but it didn't go off for some reason, but I woke up anyway due to excitement...must admit I was a little disappointed, but there's plenty of time for it to turn around

[Stu_London]

looking at the latest radar trend, I reckon for the next couple of hours anywhere east of a line from Eastbourne to Sheerness will probably do ok - west of that - forget for now

[BLS]

Slowly but surely we are getting there with the DPs 

[Stu_London]

Just now, Spraggyy said:

Slowly but surely we are getting there with the DPs 

no wonder its not snowing in southend - 12C

[Joanne Swann]

well kept getting up and looking out the window, didnt get much sleep, tiny flakes here now