South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, Marie said:

Sorry I don’t have it , my weather station is broken , it’s still very sloppy snow but god it feels cold out there and the wind is notable now 

No worries Marie. The low pressure curvature should have sent the colder air around the back end first and you are confirming this. 

[Whether Idle]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

It's definitely all snow here now, break in the wind, and could see flakes floating down. Should reach lower parts of Dover soon.

Its transitioning from sleet to snow.  65%    1.6c/0.9

[Kentspur]

That little blue rectangle above where it says A2 is where I live

[wellington boot]

40 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Run the radar for the last two hours and watch the convection over S.london. notice how it does before getting down here?

Winds are Ene now and forcing is probably stronger now.

If it isnt getting this far west now, it's going to have little chance in weaker winds and less forcing along the estuary as there is presently. I think if you look at the high resolution models they weaken the radar returns over time as a result of that reducing energy.

Sorry I know it isn't the response we want. Keep an eye out on Sunday evening, modest chance if a dusting if it lines up, maybe 50% chance?

Yes I'm not too worried for myself, as I'm much further East and hoping I'll be in the firing line. Just surprised the showers wouldn't get further, especially as the winds turn more easterly over the next few days. Remember endlessly long streamers from ten years ago that seemed to run through London and all the way to the west country.

Might be a big question to ask, but what is responsible for the lack of forcing in this case?

[masked_firefly]

Has anyone got a good precipitation radar please? 

[Maidstone marginal]

14 minutes ago, Steve Kent said:

Hopefully surface will freeze quickly when temps drop.

Met Office hourly forecast for us has been upgraded. In Maidstone we've got double snow symbols almost unbroken 4am today until Monday lunchtime. Then lots of snow showers through the week. Exciting times

I know that the Automated forecasts are a load of billiards and it's been said in this thread a thousand times in last 24 hours. But I like your update 

[lassie23]

Just saw the guess the weather forecast on TV 8c by the end of the week in the SE, hmmmm not sure that is going to happen.

Edited February 7, 2021 by lassie23

[The Beast From The East]

I really should go to sleep..... ok I will check onice more to see if it's snowing yet. ?

[snowrye]

I have some flakes just starting to appear with the rain, shame mr whippy isn't here

[Marie]

5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

No worries Marie. The low pressure curvature should have sent the colder air around the back end first and you are confirming this. 

will take your word for it I haven’t got a clue lol .Going to get a couple hours sleep as it’s still not ready to lay yet, hopefully a couple more hours of dropping temps & dewpoint will make a difference

[john mac1]

1 hour ago, OzzyUK said:

I'm not far from you (Epping) and readily admit to being a dunce compared to some on here when it comes to interpretation of models.

You think we will see much in this area? Think other comments have noted that any incoming precipitation from the east will come inland for a while, then go SW which would make our location borderline for a  hit/miss. 

Tbh, I don’t know. Once the streamers set up we could get lucky or we could completely miss out. You could have lots of continuous snow over us yet a few miles up the road there could be nothing. 
very much a nowcast!

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, Marie said:

will take your word for it I haven’t got a clue lol .Going to get a couple hours sleep as it’s still not ready to lay yet, hopefully a couple more hours of dropping temps & dewpoint will make a difference

Lol no sleep for me until I see a snowflake settle. Hard core

[Bazza118]

Wind is howling outside, but no precipitation of any kind at present. Some large puddles around though. 

[Woodboss]

Morning all,currently in transition here in hassocks just north of Brighton,mainly rain still but a few wet flakes too now. 

[dallas]

Getting sleety in the City

[kold weather]

15 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

Yes I'm not too worried for myself, as I'm much further East and hoping I'll be in the firing line. Just surprised the showers wouldn't get further, especially as the winds turn more easterly over the next few days. Remember endlessly long streamers from ten years ago that seemed to run through London and all the way to the west country.

Might be a big question to ask, but what is responsible for the lack of forcing in this case?

You really want a convergence line or something that can provide lift to keep it going once it's past the mouth of the Thames. The north downs can help but to go beyond you need an extra something.

In 09 we had a long lasting convergence setup which did the trick.

We see that further north over the Humber area on the models, but nothing down here in the SE so I have to draw the conclusion that it's a bust here to be honest based on that. I expect nothing but hope for a light dusting tomorrow evening. I won't get more than that.

As I said,can't win them all and you guys further east deserve to get walloped, especially after the failed easterly earlier this winter.

Edited February 7, 2021 by kold weather

[DanBaynes]

Snow starting to fall just east of Canterbury, that winds really picked up.

Edited February 7, 2021 by DanBaynes
Added video

[tight isobar]

Rapid transition now and there are clear mini features b4 frontal engagement... the time is nigh....... this could be linked to North Sea rates.. it’s all occurring

[OzzyUK]

5 minutes ago, john mac1 said:

Tbh, I don’t know. Once the streamers set up we could get lucky or we could completely miss out. You could have lots of continuous snow over us yet a few miles up the road there could be nothing. 
very much a nowcast!

Seen that a few times before!!

Cheers for the response, am thinking along the same lines. Hoping for 3-4cm over the next 24 hours which I think could be possible and anything else will be a bonus. If we miss out this time there could be chances next week. 

[wellington boot]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

You really want a convergence line or something that can provide lift to keep it going once it's past the mouth of the Thames. The north downs can help but to go beyond you need an extreme something.

In 09 we had a long lasting convergence setup which did the trick.

We see that further north over the Humber area on the models, but nothing down here in the SE so I have to draw the conclusion that it's a busy here to be honest based on that.

Makes sense, thanks. My understanding is that convergence is generally difficult to forecast, even at short range, so let's hope something changes for you over the next few days.

[jright35]

Snow line is the North Downs at mo.

[The Beast From The East]

Deffinatly some sleet now, watching the rain earlier and it was just dropping down vertical under the street lights but now it's blowing across horizontally and it sounds more icy as it's bouncing off my window..

[john mac1]

3 minutes ago, OzzyUK said:

Seen that a few times before!!

Cheers for the response, am thinking along the same lines. Hoping for 3-4cm over the next 24 hours which I think could be possible and anything else will be a bonus. If we miss out this time there could be chances next week. 

Don’t get me wrong, if we get in line with a streamer 10cm is easily possible.  The next few hours should be interesting. 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, wellington boot said:

Makes sense, thanks. My understanding is that convergence is generally difficult to forecast, even at short range, so let's hope something changes for you over the next few days.

 Pretty close to certain it won't, the models look spot on atm.

I'm kinda looking forward to seeing the iced over lakes and water bodies this week, should look neat and very bleak under a grey sky and frozen mud.

If lockdown wasn't on you can bet id have been in N.Kent tomorrow!

[Whether Idle]

1 minute ago, jright35 said:

Snow line is the North Downs at mo.

It is now 60% snow here. So technically still just sleet. Half a mile from coast 5 m asl (+1.6/1.0)