South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[snowblind]

54 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

According to the 6z GFS, the cold is still in next Saturday and maybe drawing in something colder from the east?

The next 7-10 days really cold be something for this region.

The gem had this idea this morning.

[Hammer]

9 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

As soon as the temperatures falls to freezing, wet ground will freeze, anyway...?

Yes with it set to get really cold the rain before really won't be a massive hindrance after a short transition.

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, Surrey said:

AROME has lost it LOL

Unless the Arome shows all snow falling instead of actually settling snow.. But I highly doubt 10cm of snow will settle in the North Sea.. 

Lol I thought you were saying all the snow is gone till I read the rest.

[snowrye]

Im hoping the transition happens a bit earlier

[Ice Day]

5 minutes ago, claret047 said:

My name is football related, but it refers to Chelmsford City. I am a life long supporter and the Club's Safety Officer as well as their Covid Officer. We should have a match on Monday evening at home to Billericay Town, what are the chances weather wise of it going ahead?

Kind Regards

Dave

I would say unless you have undersoil heating or a team of volunteers to clear the pitch, the chances of your match going ahead are slim to none!

[claret047]

55 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Thanks John..is the hill near here..?

 

Is it High Beach or High Beech. I remember being involved with a construction project at the school some years ago and discussed this with the head teacher, even she was uncertain. It would certainly be a beautiful place to seek out a winter's scene.

Not weather related but I possess a book about non league football grounds that are no more. It included an article on one at High Beach (Beech) and the ground o0wns the record for the most people attending the football ground. It was not for football but for speedway in its heyday.

Kind Regards

Dave

[Downpour]

3 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

Trying to remember a snow event in which waking up with a full covering of 10-15 cm feels just as likely as waking up with nothing at all...

Yes, it’s a bit knife edge whether we get in on the real action. The main bands seem to sticking to the coast.

MetOffice are more bullish than the BBC though. 

[lewis clark]

33 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

A lot of the Impact is dependent on 2 crucial things though hence the holding from Meto

1. How Heavy will the initial Precip Band be as it approaches from the East and how far west will it spread

2. How will the wind vectors allign  when the Low Pressure pulls away and will it be favourable for streamers which will have even more impact than the frontal band

I would not make that call until the event is started if it was me 

Hi Paul, I cannot believe what I am seeing for our area. Wow 

[Number 23]

That Amber is literally against my back fence! Move west dammit!

[pinball wizard]

10 minutes ago, claret047 said:

My name is football related, but it refers to Chelmsford City. I am a life long supporter and the Club's Safety Officer as well as their Covid Officer. We should have a match on Monday evening at home to Billericay Town, what are the chances weather wise of it going ahead?

Kind Regards

Dave

I'd be very surprised if the game can go ahead, even if snow can be cleared the pitch will be frozen solid, unplayable and dangerous. Postponement incoming I'm sure.

[Mizzle]

Was out walking the dogs earlier and so foggy and still. Nearly 2hrs later and it's still the same. It's quite eerie; is this the calm before the storm?

[ajkwilson]

Morning all . What's people's view on yalding( near Maidstone) . Only reason I ask as based at River level so is this likely to be mostly rain or will snow be falling to low levels? 

[Downpour]

5 minutes ago, claret047 said:

Is it High Beach or High Beech. I remember being involved with a construction project at the school some years ago and discussed this with the head teacher, even she was uncertain. It would certainly be a beautiful place to seek out a winter's scene.

Not weather related but I possess a book about non league football grounds that are no more. It included an article on one at High Beach (Beech) and the ground o0wns the record for the most people attending the football ground. It was not for football but for speedway in its heyday.

Kind Regards

Dave

It’s Beach - the name refers to the sandy ground I believe rather than the trees!

[Ian Docwra]

16 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

If I were you I’d grab a bin and Chuck NW’s “will it” predictors right at the bottom of the grabbed bin. 
 

in my experience they’re useless, for example, I’ve had storms when the predictor said 0%.... 

 

I’m sure the snow predictor is in the same category  

This site IS NetWeather, though!  What does that say about 'us' and 'our' criticisms of other sites?

[Eagle Eye]

Anybody ready to bet when the red warning will come out? 

[BLS]

2 minutes ago, ajkwilson said:

Morning all . What's people's view on yalding( near Maidstone) . Only reason I ask as based at River level so is this likely to be mostly rain or will snow be falling to low levels? 

I’d imagine you will get 2-5cm atleast 

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, Hammer said:

Possibly wrong thread but not sure I understand the logic of Meto putting a snow warning out on Friday through to Wednesday and then on text forecast say mainly dry Wednesday. 

Why even issue any warnings for Wednesday when even today the warnings are very likely to be adjusted for Sunday. 

In many ways even the warning for Tuesday possibly a little dubious for the entire region splattered with the warning.

It might be dry, but it'll still be icy, and those warnings are for snow and ice. Plus it covers possible surprises too. Which at this stage, might even be forecast by then.

[snowrye]

2 minutes ago, Hurricane Squad said:

Anybody ready to bet when the red warning will come out? 

Id imagine once it starts to unfold, 

[Ian Docwra]

22 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I really hope this cold spell isn’t so severe that it hampers the vaccination roll out, it’s quite ironic really that we’ve had woeful winters for years and the one year I’d almost accepted it was for the greater good that there was no freeze, we look like we might get one  

Well, severe snow appears to be limited to a narrow band of near-coastal EA and Kent, the rest to get flurries and a grey, not white ground, so the very cold weather shouldn't hamper 99% of the country.

[ajkwilson]

2 minutes ago, Spraggyy said:

I’d imagine you will get 2-5cm atleast 

Thank you ! It's been upgraded to Amber but being River level always leaves me sceptical . 

[Number 23]

3 minutes ago, ajkwilson said:

Morning all . What's people's view on yalding( near Maidstone) . Only reason I ask as based at River level so is this likely to be mostly rain or will snow be falling to low levels? 

Absolutely no marginality into Sunday early hours and beyond. Anything that falls from the sky will be white from then until at least midweek I'd say. 

[Bradley in Kent]

2 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

That Amber is literally against my back fence! Move west dammit!

Thankfully the warning boundaries aren't to be taken literally; just a regional guide to areas which might have a higher impact. They could go into more detail making the boundaries more fuzzy and programme in things like elevation or urban density, but that would be a waste of time. 

Of course the further inside the warning area the more severe, but that's not to say an area 1 mile away from boundary won't see anything!

[ajkwilson]

1 minute ago, Number 23 said:

Absolutely no marginality into Sunday early hours and beyond. Anything that falls from the sky will be white from then until at least midweek I'd say. 

Cheers for the reply ! Live in middle of no where with one country lane out and about 5 miles to any main road so will be interesting ! 

[Ian Docwra]

Just now, snowrye said:

Id imagine once it starts to unfold, 

'Red' surely means a danger to life - is it REALLY likely to become that in the small area of EA and Kent affected by the heavier snow?  I can't see it.  The dangers of very heavy snow are totally different to those from rain (destructive flooding, etc).  'Amber' already covers the issues of being cut off, roads blocked, etc.  A 'red' snow warning must surely be things like roofs collapsing for there to be a danger to life.

[Hotspur62]

7 minutes ago, ajkwilson said:

Morning all . What's people's view on yalding( near Maidstone) . Only reason I ask as based at River level so is this likely to be mostly rain or will snow be falling to low levels? 

Well you are in the Amber zone.Heavy rain this evening will transition to snow around 1-2 am I would think and then steady snow for you for much of the day-would guess anything from 5-15cms for you by close of play
 

good luck and stay safe