South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[kate1]

Can I ask what's probably a really silly question? - on the NW 7-Day Forecast pages it gives accumulations for precipitation - are those per hour, or for the three-hour period - am assuming the latter or we would all be buried?

[snowbob]

My weather app now saying snow starting at ten tomorrow night

Edited February 6, 2021 by snowbob

[lottiekent]

So @alexisj9 and @Snowy Bob our time  may have come at last in our little corner!

I think Alexis might get more as she’s a little higher up than Bob and I (going by location info and past memory) but fingers crossed we’ll all see something decent.

My first threshold for a decent snowfall is when i can’t see the grass poking through the snow anymore - if we get to that point I’m happy!

The second is when you roll a snowball up to make a snowman, you don’t uncover the mud and grass underneath. But from memory, that needs to be a pretty decent depth.

[Hotspur62]

10 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

I’m in Orpington just around corner from you what do expect for us Sunday thanks 

I would expect snow to start here 12-1 Sunday morning and would hope for 5-7cms by close of play Sunday.Then Monday and Tuesday it’s a case if we get lucky under the streamers.If we do then I would say we could be looking at 10-12cms by close of play tuesday(could be more but equally we could miss them altogether!).As always higher ground around us like Knockholt or Halsted could be looking at 20cms plus by Tuesday.BFTE IN 2018 although bitterly cold only delivered 5cms yet my friend in West Kingsdown got 16cms!!

[john mac1]

@TomSE12 time for a snow depth cup again?

[pinball wizard]

3 minutes ago, kate1 said:

Can I ask what's probably a really silly question? - on the NW 7-Day Forecast pages it gives accumulations for precipitation - are those per hour, or for the three-hour period - am assuming the latter or we would all be buried?

They're for the three hour period from the most recent GFS model.

[bbtablet]

2 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

So @alexisj9 and @Snowy Bob our time  may have come at last in our little corner!

I think Alexis might get more as she’s a little higher up than Bob and I (going by location info and past memory) but fingers crossed we’ll all see something decent.

My first threshold for a decent snowfall is when i can’t see the grass poking through the snow anymore - if we get to that point I’m happy!

The second is when you roll a snowball up to make a snowman, you don’t uncover the mud and grass underneath. But from memory, that needs to be a pretty decent depth.

I'm just nipping out to cut the lawn on short setting!

[snowbob]

1 minute ago, john mac1 said:

@TomSE12 time for a snow depth cup again?

Deffo

i won that once 

lol

@TomSE12 will have to confirm that though

Edited February 6, 2021 by snowbob

[Buzzit]

2 minutes ago, john mac1 said:

@TomSE12 time for a snow depth cup again?

Wow not heard of one of them for a while.. I’m in but want to go up against someone from reading  

[alexisj9]

11 minutes ago, starstream said:

Hopefully oodles of it! 
@Met4Cast 

Certainly it seems to much for some. Looking forward to it, but also hope everyone will be ok.

[Mark wheeler]

Wow snow out until Friday now and yeah I know , I know it’s the bbc auto forecast . 

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Deffo

i won that once 

lol

@TomSE12 will have to confirm that though

Can we have a booby prize for the least, I may well be in with a shout on that award (though I may face stiff competition from those in the NW part of the region to be fair!

[twiglet98]

1 hour ago, HighPressure said:

Thanks for your reply, I don't know if its good or bad, but I will keep a shovel handy, and they say these yeti's are good in the snow but that's not going to any good if I can't find it on Monday   

It'll be a lot better than the automatic Corsa I have as a hire car this week... I'm NOT looking forward to the drive to work Monday evening

[Vesuvius]

Just now, Buzzit said:

Wow not heard of one of them for a while.. I’m in but want to go up against someone from reading  

I like your style Buzzit. I’ll go one on one erm this time only as the last few weeks I would never win 

[XLNC]

Snow depth for Sunday, start to look more interesting further west from London.

[Hotspur62]

2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Wow snow out until Friday now and yeah I know , I know it’s the bbc auto forecast . 

Go on the Met Office app and you will find temperatures are between 1-2 degrees colder than what bbc app shows and will be more accurateAlthough none of the apps are great on actual weather type I have found met office app certainly more accurate than bbc.

[Buzzit]

3 minutes ago, Vesuvius said:

I like your style Buzzit. I’ll go one on one erm this time only as the last few weeks I would never win 

I just don’t want to go out first round

[lassie23]

5 million new posts and not a flake of snow yet, could you imagine  when it starts snowing We have already had a power cut tonight, is it the national grid getting some practice in

[kold weather]

9 minutes ago, XLNC said:

Snow depth for Sunday, start to look more interesting further west from London.

Probably about the most optimistic model I've seen yet from the 18z suite, most models are showing significantly more patchy snow cover for our neck of the region to the west of the thread region.

I suspect the map that Nick F showed earlier from the 18z UKV is about right, patchy accumulation to the west of London, some areas may get lucky and get accumulations, some will get nothing at all. All luck of the draw probably. Any decent altitude will help for Saturday night.

Tuesday is becoming a slight worry, the wind was good for a streamer BUT if the LP to our south gets too close it will switch the winds more ESE and hut the streamer down, and we'll have just a cloudy cold day instead in across the whole SE. Remote chance it ends up bumping into the southern coastal counties but lets be honest, when was the last time we had one of those types of lows, I cant remember it in living memory to be honest!

Edited February 6, 2021 by kold weather

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, Buzzit said:

I just don’t want to go out first round

No going by what's posted just above, that'll be me lol. Must be sleet on the coast again, going to far northwest. Still not to worry, it's a now cast event.

[Vesuvius]

4 minutes ago, Buzzit said:

I just don’t want to go out first round

Aww come on man, I never win these events. I only have a chance in an Easterly, oh oops. 

[Daniel*]

Wow the thread is busy not seen it like this in a very long time you can feel the excitement in air what’s wonderful the areas which are set to benefit most, have seen sod all (except North Downs) so that’s wonderful.  

Sweet spot for me N/NW Kent by Monday lunchtime with also streamers following, some places could have seen more than a foot of snow (30cm), imo potential for this to be snowier than 2018 in places. 

[WheresTheSnow]

What are prospects looking just north of London toward Hampstead as that’s where I’m going to based this weekend? 
 

UKV seems to show little to nothing, Harmonie looks much more promising. Such differences and it confuses me as to what I should expect

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, WheresTheSnow said:

What are prospects looking just north of London toward Hampstead as that’s where I’m going to based this weekend? 
 

UKV seems to show little to nothing, Harmonie looks much more promising. Such differences and it confuses me as to what I should expect

I'd believe the UKV more than Harmonie to be honest!

I think there will be some snow around, but its going to be quite hit and miss.

Don't expect much on Sunday. Light snow showers are probably going to melt during the daytime as the temps end up reaching 1-2c outside of the real heavy constant stuff further east. 

The models that are bringing snow cover on Sunday are settling even the very light stuff, which typically doesn't really happen as it will melt too quickly even at 1-2c with such light snowfall.

I'll stick my neck out and say 1-3cms...if you get lucky at the back end of the front on Saturday night. Then constant light showers Sunday that settle but melt. A classic flurries type day.

EDIT - still scope for changes of course at this stage, it will be a nowcast situation, especially Saturday night, thats our best chance at getting something more substantial this weekend. Perhaps streamer chances as well next week...but who knows on that one!

Edited February 6, 2021 by kold weather

[XLNC]

Just now, WheresTheSnow said:

What are prospects looking just north of London toward Hampstead as that’s where I’m going to based this weekend? 
 

UKV seems to show little to nothing, Harmonie looks much more promising. Such differences and it confuses me as to what I should expect

I wouldn’t be surprised if you saw between 5 to 10cm by end of the day if you catch the band pushing in on ENE wind.