South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

[Ian Docwra]

From 24 January - something to devour, perhaps, before whatever occurs this Sunday.  Ignore the 'Bruno' part of the title - I clipped the section with our dog out to make it a reasonable length video.

 

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Ian Docwra

[kold weather]

FWIW here is a GFS 06z parallel, its not drastically different from the -6z ECM, core just a little further SW:

Some huge amounts again showing up over East Anglia, but also through much of the N/Home counties. Even the south coast at 3-5cms which I think most would take down there.

 

[Jamie M]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

So just to put this down and come back to it first part of next week Neil in North Kent is predicting 0.2cm and Ian in Surrey is predicting 1cm.

Will come back to Page 32 next week to see how close your predictions are thanks for those guys 

Do you want me to bump it up to 0.5 cm for you Paul 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Jamie M

[Ian Docwra]

15 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Horrible UHI effect over Greater London though, as ever.

 

I do hope Londoners get out to Epping Forest and similar where totals will be 2-3x that in Zones 1 & 2. 

Essential travel only - snow watching is not exempt!

[Snowy Bob]

2 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

If it does go south, I wouldn't worry to much, the cold will be here, and with the proposed uppers thing could be good. It will definitely be cold.

Would there would be likelihood of some streamers coming in on the back of that low?

Back to today, bit nippy down here, definitely doesn't feel 6c especially down by the seafront here.

One thing I despise about living in the centre of town nowadays, is that unlike the north of Folkestone, you don't really get the full effect of the snow, that's probably because I live on a main road, oh those were the days when we had to dig out a path to get to the gate like back in the 90s.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Snowy Bob

[Downpour]

5 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

Essential travel only - snow watching is not exempt!

Well there are usually country park /quasi-countryside areas within 5 miles of most areas of London. 

[Ben M]

I'm super excited for next week looks like we're finally getting a proper cold spell with snow on the cards for most of us!!! At last!! Although I don't know if I can mentally cope with another 'not sure of the exact placement of the low' scenario again, my nerves are still in shreds from the last one lol 

[80sWeather]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

FWIW here is a GFS 06z parallel, its not drastically different from the -6z ECM, core just a little further SW:

Some huge amounts again showing up over East Anglia, but also through much of the N/Home counties. Even the south coast at 3-5cms which I think most would take down there.

 

Seen many a time as fronts or troughs travel down from the North during cold spells etc they seem to die a death when reaching the SE.

Would you say the dynamics of this low are a bit different as in it’s strengthening thus forecasting more precipitation?

[Downpour]

13 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

An exaggeration don’t you think? It has 3” across nearly all of London. Don’t take it as a gospel but looks good for all Londoners... I’d be happy.

I think that's falling snow. From my own experience, High Beach at Epping Forest almost always gets 2x that at my house –– it's only four miles from me, and Chingford is already one of the snowiest districts of London. 

The moderation from UHI is extreme.

[Downpour]

11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

FWIW here is a GFS 06z parallel, its not drastically different from the -6z ECM, core just a little further SW:

Some huge amounts again showing up over East Anglia, but also through much of the N/Home counties. Even the south coast at 3-5cms which I think most would take down there.

 

Extreme UHI effect shown clearly here – totals half in central London compared to bordering districts to the north! 

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

36 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Quite the upgrade from ECM 06z on Sunday with southern and western extent. Possibly a concerning situation in East Anglia with the strong easterly winds the drifts will be quite something.

that would be incredible.

 

[If Wishes made Weather]

37 minutes ago, Southender said:

Nice clear predicted snow graphic I found on Twitter. 2-5cm generally. 5-10cm further North and East and 10cm+ for lucky spots in EA like Norwich .

 

That is good and clear.  Interestingly, the bit in northern Germany that is showing the highest snowfall amount is the Harz mountains, the highest of which (called the Broken) is 1142m above sea level. Just a little less than Ben Nevis.  It is famous for just getting loads of snow (or rain depending on time of year), with the maximum measured snow depth of 3.80m.  If you look at a topographic map the Harz are the only really high ground between the Atlantic and the Urals.

[WheresTheSnow]

The GFS has been consistently showing snow all day for the south on Sunday. I know that it’s not great for precipitation amounts but I’ve seen contrasting views saying that showers won’t even get west enough past London.

Can the GFS be that far off the mark on precipitation? Surely most of the south (bar the coasts and towards the west) should get a couple centimetres minimum if it stays as the GFS shows?

[Snowy Bob]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

So just to put this down and come back to it first part of next week Neil in North Kent is predicting 0.2cm and Ian in Surrey is predicting 1cm.

Will come back to Page 32 next week to see how close your predictions are thanks for those guys 

Going to go for 2.7cm in Folkestone. Perhaps I'm just an optimist.

[Jamie M]

All jokes aside, it is looking very good even for coastal areas with some snow accumulation

3 - 4 cm widely with 6 - 7 cm in higher spots even for SE Kent.

I'll go with 3 cm here and see if I get lucky.

Best shot we've had in years.

[Chrisover93]

4 minutes ago, WheresTheSnow said:

The GFS has been consistently showing snow all day for the south on Sunday. I know that it’s not great for precipitation amounts but I’ve seen contrasting views saying that showers won’t even get west enough past London.

Can the GFS be that far off the mark on precipitation? Surely most of the south (bar the coasts and towards the west) should get a couple centimetres minimum if it stays as the GFS shows?

Coasts or no coasts still could get good snow any failling would be snow

[Mark Bayley]

33 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

An exaggeration don’t you think? It has 3” across nearly all of London. Don’t take it as a gospel but looks good for all Londoners... I’d be happy.

Agreed, I've only found the snow melts more quickly as opposed to those outside the M25 get considerably more (but that's only 4 years experience, and i can count on one hand the snow events...). Still, I'm zone 4/5, it will be a little different right in the centre!

Edited February 4, 2021 by Mark Bayley

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

8 minutes ago, WheresTheSnow said:

The GFS has been consistently showing snow all day for the south on Sunday. I know that it’s not great for precipitation amounts but I’ve seen contrasting views saying that showers won’t even get west enough past London.

Can the GFS be that far off the mark on precipitation? Surely most of the south (bar the coasts and towards the west) should get a couple centimetres minimum if it stays as the GFS shows?

Icon suggests it will spreader westerly

[Weather Wonder]

39 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Horrible UHI effect over Greater London though, as ever.

 

I do hope Londoners get out to Epping Forest and similar where totals will be 2-3x that in Zones 1 & 2. 

On a positive note UHI is great news for any potential streamers.

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

however, Aperge seems to want to drag this further South.

 

Excited few days to see where this will land.

 

[Daniel*]

13 minutes ago, Downpour said:

I think that's falling snow. From my own experience, High Beach at Epping Forest almost always gets 2x that at my house –– it's only four miles from me, and Chingford is already one of the snowiest districts of London. 

The moderation from UHI is extreme.

It’s a snow depth chart but yes probably wouldn’t all settle. The thing is the situation ahead isn’t really marginal like 90% of time. The UHI isn’t extreme but when marginal it makes a big difference. In recent times I in middle of London had laying snow my first real snow in 3 years and they didn’t have anything but rain on Kent north downs.  

[Chrisover93]

40 minutes ago, WheresTheSnow said:

bar the coasts and towards the west

rubbish its a BFTE we just had a really rubbish northerly currently set up it more then good for anything 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Captain Shortwave
Removed language (got through swear filter)

[MAF]

1 hour ago, paget said:

Stop buying sledges!!

im going to ceremonially burn my sledge while holding a twig of holly in my teeth dancing around the fire naked!

can i watch  

[mrkipling]

6 minutes ago, Chiltern_Blizzard said:

however, Aperge seems to want to drag this further South.

 

Excited few days to see where this will land.

 

My money's on the Arpege! 
I personally don't think the southeast evolution of this precip has finished being modelled yet...

[Planet Stow]

51 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Horrible UHI effect over Greater London though, as ever.

 

I do hope Londoners get out to Epping Forest and similar where totals will be 2-3x that in Zones 1 & 2. 

Based in Walthamstow however during the last 'snow' event here I managed to get to Epping where there around an inch of snow.

Not to sure how safe it will be to travel up to Epping this time round though!

Edited February 4, 2021 by Planet Stow