Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[snowbob]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Sorry i have not been on today as i had to see my OH off in an Ambulance earlier,thankfully she is OK now and i have just picked her up from Hospital 

great model output today and i am glad that the ECM is coming on board

the 18z is a peach of a run so far

please continue

goes to catch up on the rest of the thread now,i will leave you with the latest cpc and De-built...

and the 12z gefs ens getting close to -10

 

 

Glad all is well with oh mate

keep safe

great 18z tonight

hoping for a steady up on the 0z

[supernova]

So much to resolve beforehand but after a year hibernating in tier 4 the pub run’s finally had enough and gone down the Rovers for a full-on lock in with drinks on the house all night and the Bangles tribute band shortly appearing live dressed in see through Princess Leia bikinis and a note from the missus saying for one evening only it’s a free pass with no morning interrogation so fill your boots and don’t come home until you’re  good and drunk. Very snowy. Numerous arctic lows. As much chance of that happening as the paragraph above actually being true but not a bad way to sign off Sunday after what’s been a tortuous few days of baiting from the ECM and co.

Edited January 31, 2021 by supernova

[Ice Day]

16 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Well, well, well. The 18ZGFS is truly a spectacular run. The -10°C 850 isotherm is somewhere over the UK for over 100 continuous hours.  Can’t remember seeing that before.

And by my reckoning, the -8 has been somewhere over the UK for over 220 hours!  That is pretty incredible

[Optimus Prime]

Great looking 2m temp anomaly chart for day 7 (1981-2010 ref period)

 

 

[Battleground Snow]

The low has already given up the fight and almost vanished at 114 on the para. Good all 3 18z runs have done this now 

 

[Griff]

GFSP 

Friday 8pm

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z // T120, and I needn’t have worried, the problem low seems to have evaporated so it’s on the cold chase again, few hours behind on this one though...

[Griff]

Back to the Op, anyone order a top up? 

[Tim Bland]

It’s not a cold outlier ...

[markw2680]

7 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It will still get there Mike, it will just be a little slower,

Any slower and it will be back to the usual day 10 stuff, don’t think we can take any more cracking day 10 charts, if it countdowns to 2/3 days etc without the usual downgrading then it will be a boom from me! For now it’s just for a bit of fun

[MJB]

Control is fantastic

 

I have just gone through all 30 members from 120 to 150 virtually all have the winds from the East , the odd one NE , the odd one SE , if GFS has this time period wrong , it needs binning ................the model that is 

[Cloud 10]

The updated 96/120 fax charts should make for interesting viewing.

 

Just out,and seem to go with ukmo raw-ish output.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

Edited January 31, 2021 by Cloud 10

[Griff]

120 // vs op

Edited January 31, 2021 by Griff

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Griff said:

Glad she's OK, sorry to hear that. Relax with the GFS! 

Yeah,...sod reading the rest of the thread for now,the 18z is keeping me interested...

up she goes again 300>

[Ice Day]

The mean at 162 - fantastic

  

That's mean -10's knocking on the door of Scotland's east cost with most of the country bathed in -8's!

[tight isobar]

We seem to have both unheard of senior meteorologists   

 

 

 

 

and weather mediums. With Crystal balls on board tonight????

suggesting all this is people imagining things..and that there analysis 24hrs out etc will be the resolve..amazes me in here at times

Edited January 31, 2021 by tight isobar

[MJB]

3 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

The updated 96/120 fax charts should make for interesting viewing.

oh dear - the 120 is VERY different to GFS at 120 

[Battleground Snow]

7 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Any slower and it will be back to the usual day 10 stuff, don’t think we can take any more cracking day 10 charts, if it countdowns to 2/3 days etc without the usual downgrading then it will be a boom from me! For now it’s just for a bit of fun

I'm sure 12 hours extra on the para is not going to make it turn from day 6 to day 10.

Edited January 31, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[WorldExplore]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s not a cold outlier ...

Lovely Nice to see not one ensemble higher than -2 by day 7. Looking forward to the tightening of the ensembles closer to the fantastic falling mean. 

[feb1991blizzard]

How about flatliners, we're into extasy here!! good few nearing the -15 mark - is the tide turning in our favour.

[Griff]

This would be a week after lift off... Jff

[Mike Poole]

GFS, on top of everything else, delivers a lovely purple rabbit at T312

[Jason H]

No change. Cold still incoming for the weekend as has been advertised now for a couple of days. Details still to be confirmed on exactly how this is going to occur. I'm guessing the latest GFS op run would be most people's preferred option. Don't be surprised to see that option disappear in the next run.

[Allseasons-Si]

Blimey!!!

even for London,that's not bad.

[swilliam]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

oh dear - the 120 is VERY different to GFS at 120 

It is nearly always an exact replica of the UKMO 120 chart - looks like it to