Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[TSNWK]

7 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

GFS a little more west and north with the low off the coast of Scotland so far? (T66))...a little concerning?

Yep more apparent at 90.. 

[Snowman.]

UKMO

Yesterdays

[Djdazzle]

What’s the betting that after the ICON improves, the UKMO flips?

[ptow]

20 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

Why has the thread been called the beast anyway? A beast is what we got in feb/March 2018 that has not once been modelled this time round. What we will likely get is 850s of -6 -9, which will likely be good enough for many areas that have yet too see a flake but we will NOT be getting a beast atm. 

There have been quite a few runs that have shown a true beast -15 850’s as well 

[kold weather]

Perhaps some slight movement towards the ECM on the 12z GFS...

However the main factors still look ok at 96hrs, and more condusive than the 00z ECM was at the same timeframe. 

Much slower than the 12z ICON for example.

[Don]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Yep more apparent at 90.. 

Not a great start to the run then?

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

UKMO

Yesterdays

Yesterday's day 4.  Correct one below.

 

[Tim Bland]

9 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

What are the chances ECM comes aboard but UKMOor GFS jump overboard?

Very low. What will happen is GFS will move towards ECM and ECM will Move towards GFS and UKMO will probably be first to spot the middle ground. Might not be today or tomorrow but it will almost definitely happen ..

[kold weather]

UKMO much slower as well in that clearing the low at least to 120hrs.

Looks much closer to the 00z ECM than its previous runs...more of a middle ground between its 00z and ECM 00z with the LP still well over the UK at 120hrs. Maybe close to the ICON?

Problem with the UKMO is the way its handling the upper features near Greenland and also directly to our north is very similar to the ECM on this run which has to be a worry.

Edited January 31, 2021 by kold weather

[Snowman.]

UKMO 120

[Drifter]

GFS - incredible how that piddly little low can scupper chances of cold air flooding across. Let’s hope it sods off soon!

[mulzy]

UKMO 12z a definite downgrade sadly.

[SLEETY]

Rubbish performance by UKMO looking like now,dont know where we go from here

[Don]

Seems like it's going the wrong way this evening although early on still.

[Timmytour]

GFS could be short term downgrade for longer term upgrade at T120

[Drifter]

Just now, mulzy said:

UKMO 12z a definite downgrade sadly.

144 not as good as this morning but still excellent. Need to see the 850’s. 

[Snowman.]

UKMO 144.

Not too bad.. downgrade yes. But not an ECM disaster.

[winterof79]

I really do not think that is bad at all

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by winterof79

[Drifter]

I think the misery posters are jumping the gun a bit early tonight!

[Don]

Just now, Snowman. said:

UKMO 144.

Not too bad.. downgrade yes. But not an ECM disaster.

Still trending the wrong way though which is not what we wanted to see!

[Griff]

9 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

UKMO

Yesterdays

Further east and better heights? 

[tight isobar]

I said it b4 ..I'll say it AGAIN..classic model miss-firing here as whenever reverse mobility is in the offing...and again I wouldn't be at all surprised to no see the ecm take control..and be the one to offer up nivarna....anyway all in all still in seasons past..great synoptics!

[Lampostwatcher]

Ukmo is fine 

Over to ecm

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Rubbish performance by UKMO looking like now,dont know where we go from here

Really? What's wrong with it exactly?

Looks like setting up a very long draw Easterly to me.

[Djdazzle]

We are seeing a bit of model convergence it seems.

UKMO 12z was never likely to be as good as the 00z, so no surprise there.