Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[northwestsnow]

168

[Don]

19 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

haha looks like ecm going to be a big fail,icon not going with it in 12 hour newer data

 

Oh well, that's cursed it hasn't it! 

[Winter Hill]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

168

North Easterly. Snow showers coming over the Pennines 

[northwestsnow]

Still going at the end...

[nick sussex]

Encouraging start from the 12hrs models . The ICON not following the grinch model and its latest output is also a marked improvement on its  06hrs run.

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by nick sussex

[Bazza118]

9 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

I said that this morning. Since it’s upgrade a few years ago, it’s just not been the same. 

Perhaps its taking longer to settle in to its new home in Bologna after 50 + years in Reading, you now how it is when moving house.

[Stu_London]

We might as well see what happens by looking out of the window at this rate

The discord between the various models is making them rather ineffective as forecasting tools. 

[TSNWK]

I would bank icon if I could.... nice appetiser.. now for the main course...

[kold weather]

Good to see the ECM backtrack from its 00z run, especially as it tends to be closer to the ECM than most of the other models historically.

Now watch the 12z GFS switch on board with the ECM just to throw a wrench into the whole thing now ICON has moved back!

 

[Continental Climate]

Why has the thread been called the beast anyway? A beast is what we got in feb/March 2018 that has not once been modelled this time round. What we will likely get is 850s of -6 -9, which will likely be good enough for many areas that have yet too see a flake but we will NOT be getting a beast atm. 

[goosey007]

Ecm just has move towards the solution the rest of models are TONIGHT! or really give up with these models ...obviously this is based on the UKMO, GFS, staying with the cold/very cold solution.

[saintkip]

1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

Why has the thread been called the beast anyway? A beast is what we got in feb/March 2018 that has not once been modelled this time round. What we will likely get is 850s of -6 -9, which will likely be good enough for many areas that have yet too see a flake but we will NOT be getting a beast atm. 

Bit of fun maybe

[Catacol]

15 minutes ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

Amazing post Catacol, than you. I found it really very helpful in trying to understand some the large array of forces involved with the weather and getting cold to our shores 

My working life is in strategic leadership. It seems to me that winter weather is driven in the same way as many organisations. Decisions taken top down....and others driven bottom up.

Winter in the U.K. is all about breaking the natural westerly dominance of the Atlantic. And the ying yang for us is the relationship between forcings that come from the stratospheric vortex downward....and others that come from the pacific equator up through lines of latitude. There are other factors that help dictate the fine detail in our sector but the big drivers are the point of interest for me. Get the large scale forces right and then cross fingers the smaller details align. If the big drivers are not conducive to reversing that westerly dominance it takes a slice of enormous luck to cash in on a cold feed.

When looking seasonally we must always bear in mind that models do not spot SSWs well. I believe the most up to date modelling struggles beyond 2 weeks in picking these events and that keeps us amateurs in the game because some of the core cursors to disruption can be spotted with the human eye. When we fail to get a SSW then our seasonal models have become really quite good at nailing the output.

So when growing a sense of seasonal forecasting it becomes a case of working out how the dance between downwards vortex and upwards pacific forcings play out. It is complicated a bit by the fact that these are not existing independently - there is a link between pacific wave activity creating stratospheric impacts and indeed vice versa. It’s a very complex relationship, beyond the wit of our best computers to calculate accurately. But it is definitely possible to get a feel for that relationship - almost an organic process. The best human organisations have a similarly organic feel.

One of the most entertaining features of this winter has been watching the BBC constantly sitting about 12-24 hours behind the curve on their forecasting, much to their embarrassment I’m sure. It has been a very dynamic winter with NWP struggling to make sense of the SSW impacts. I see no sign of a change - the ECM at 240h has been all over the shop the last few runs. So...ignore NWP for anything other than entertainment and rely on organic interpretation. The pacific equator is waking up as the MJO moves through the maritimes. This will support downstream ridging favourable for blocking in our sector as the sub tropical ridge is sucked southwards. Meanwhile the vortex is running below average and almost regardless of where the core of the vortex ends up the troposphere may hold the whip hand for a while. Ergo - easterly flow at times, Atlantic systems bumping and sliding as they arrive. Nightmare for forecasters - cue more egg on the BBC face. But potential snow nirvana at some stage in the month if we can get a little bit of luck. Certainly in the game - and many a winter we have not been in this position. 2020/21 has been the best winter season for a while. Will be interesting to do a bit of fun ranking once it is all done and dusted.

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

Why has the thread been called the beast anyway? A beast is what we got in feb/March 2018 that has not once been modelled this time round. What we will likely get is 850s of -6 -9, which will likely be good enough for many areas that have yet too see a flake but we will NOT be getting a beast atm. 

Plenty of runs have shown -11 or -12 over the last few days, even the ECM did, not sure why there is a  obsession of getting to -15. In early February it will feel the same as late Feb from 2018 and lots of snow around too

Edited January 31, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Speedbird]

5 hours ago, Vikos said:

Why? Because it doesn't match ones favour? Thats wishful thinking but not synoptical logic.

Wishful thinking ?

No, analyze and challenge. 

I will stand by my earlier post.

[Snowman.]

ECM 6z anyone??

[mountsbaysnow]

11 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh well, that's cursed it hasn't it! 

Yeah and so has the Daily Depress by the looks of it,straight onto the gravy train almost like they are viewing the runs lol.

[Lord Grogon]

1 hour ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

If the evidence increases over the next few days for the models to put the beast to sleep, I guess we could make a few tweaks to the thread title

No!
Please don’t kill the dream.....

[supernova]

15 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Come on, peeps, chins up? Any minute now, today's 'massive', 'crucial', immense', 'mahoosive', 'life-defining' GFS 12Z will be rolling out!

You missed "vital" 

[SLEETY]

Icon locks in brutal cold at surface,if UKMO follows this,then ECM credibility about to take a big nosedive 

 

Hide behind the sofa time coming up.UKMO about to start............

Edited January 31, 2021 by SLEETY

[chicken soup]

2 hours ago, Lord Grogon said:

To conclude my (rather pointless) 24 hour research project into “That ECM”, I am pleased to say that I finally found the thread. Thank you to ThatECM for your help in the end. 
I realise this is not relevant and I promise never to post here again on the subject.

As a final gesture, below is the ECM 12z at T192 from 5 Dec 2012 that started the biggest forum meltdown in the history of Netweather.

 

Have you got a link to it please.. Wouldn't mind a read of that. 

[Fozfoster]

6 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Ecm just has move towards the solution the rest of models are TONIGHT! or really give up with these models ...obviously this is based on the UKMO, GFS, staying with the cold/very cold solution.

What are the chances ECM comes aboard but UKMOor GFS jump overboard?

[Timmytour]

GFS a little more west and north with the low off the coast of Scotland so far? (T66))...a little concerning?

[kold weather]

Just now, Fozfoster said:

What are the chances ECM comes aboard but UKMOor GFS jump overboard?

It wouldn't be the first time we've seen that happen to be fair!

Got to be ready for a wobble from one of them at some point on their operational runs, its rare they manage to nail it this far out without at least one major wobble, especially when its the ECM that is the one we are going up against, so to speak.

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

ECM 6z anyone??

a little east atT90 compared to the 00z run

the control on this run goes to day 6 and it isn’t good with the low