Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[IDO]

Around d9-10 the Pacific ridge has been consistent in recent runs (x-model) and right on cue:

That is about all I would guess at this juncture as there are hurdles to cross before then that are important.

A cold UK run especially in Scotland? Solid enough run with no early default to a westerly incursion.

[nick sussex]

A least the earlier part of the GFS looked much more encouraging than the ECM  and gets some of that deeper cold sw into the UK .

Later on quite a different set up with the PV so it’s hard to draw conclusions as to which solution is correct .

Lots of uncertainty remains which seems par for the course with trying to get those really good synoptics to land .

[AFCBSNOW]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Hey up!!!,...what goin on here then...

get ready for a cracking fl,...mark my word.

 

90 degree Duck incoming!

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Better linkage between the burgeoning high with the arctic high at T114 on the // compared with T120 on the 12z:

The arctic annom=crucial for the flow...I know=think where we are going..✌..plot side positive=elongated north east=easterly transfer!.

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by tight isobar

[Jarrow Posh]

 

The GFS 18z has 36 hours of snow for the far north of England and southern and central Scotland from Tuesday as the front stalls and then eventually peters out.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Jarrow Posh

[Allseasons-Si]

going for a split profile here ladies and gents.

[MJB]

Yet another outcome , nice to see 

[Mike Poole]

GFS // T132, and again on this run long fetch NE - see the 1030 hPa line in yellow, going to be a good one:

[Snowmaggedon]

1 minute ago, Jarrow Posh said:

 

The GFS 18z has 36 hours of snow for the far north of England and southern and central Scotland from Tuesday as the front stalls and then eventually peters out.

I can assure the snow shield will be in full effect over Middlesbrough so we wouldn’t be getting 36 hours of snow.

[Jason M]

Same old story, Beast incoming at day 12+.  Today has brought gradual downgrades tbh. 

[Uncertainty]

I think this run, the very latter stages of the GEM and, to an extent, the post day 10 potential on the ECM show that getting this first bite of the cherry isn’t the be all and end all. I think a full on BFTE scandi high at day 9/10 now looks unlikely based on tonight’s outputs but, as I will keep reiterating, the background forcing, extended range modelling and professional meteorologists opinions remain strongly biased to cold / very cold outcomes over the coming 5 - 25 days. So it doesn’t seem like a 2019 redux to me yet...

[MJB]

I think most would be happy with this 

[Jono E]

Someone’s knocking on the door (the beast)

Somebody’s ringing the bell (the beast) 

Do me a favour (GFS) open the door ..... and let him in ?️.....

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

I think this run, the very latter stages of the GEM and, to an extent, the post day 10 potential on the ECM show that getting this first bite of the cherry isn’t the be all and end all. I think a full on BFTE scandi high at day 9/10 now looks unlikely based on tonight’s outputs but, as I will keep reiterating, the background forcing, extended range modelling and professional meteorologists opinions remain strongly biased to cold / very cold outcomes over the coming 5 - 25 days. So it doesn’t seem like a 2019 redux to me yet...

The concern is though, very cold keeps being put back to day 10+ and past experience says this is not good.  

Edited January 29, 2021 by Don

[bluearmy]

The gfsp continues to be more consistent than we have got used to seeing on various ops behind day 5/6 ...

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Same old story, Beast incoming at day 12+.  Today has brought gradual downgrades tbh. 

I'll take a wage side bet jay..that we will have Easterly surface flow by Wednesday=Thursday..this is all screaming conversion \overlay..via the raws...@easterly incoming..the domino effect now in full sequence!!. We should now begin as of tomorrow..the roll and drop momentum...with synoptical catch up ☝...

TI....Edit I'll drop the notions when they come out ie en s support for 18z=12z compare should be of view!!.✌

Edited January 29, 2021 by tight isobar

[Froze were the Days]

I think this run is about as plausible as me winning the Masters golf this April...c'mon, heights lowering from the north and then over the UK only to be sucked northwards again aided by WAA from mid-Atlantic through Greenland.

About as clear as mud after about Day 7.

[Allseasons-Si]

The Arctic rabbit standing proud there...

[MJB]

10 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Same old story, Beast incoming at day 12+.  Today has brought gradual downgrades tbh. 

D7 

I'd say the Beast and just put his foot through the door 

[Daniel*]

Encore! I wouldn’t be unhappy if this verified.

[Mike Poole]

GFS // pub run - in a parallel universe that has pubs, T168 (1 week from now):

I say again, the interplay between our block and the arctic high is crucial to how this pans out, and this run went well with a continuous cold feed over 1000 miles plus.  

The normal GFS run in FI is absolute nonsense in my view. 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Froze were the Days]

GFS certainly is giving us a great spectacle...I wonder come the 2nd week of February any of this will be that accurate?

[ICE COLD]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The gfsp continues to be more consistent than we have got used to seeing on various ops behind day 5/6 ...

Yep it was pretty like for like on its previous run unlike the others lol and has this at 180 . 

[Allseasons-Si]

The parra is a slight upgrade on the 850's,...-14's incoming...

@bluearmy,you are not wrong there and this model will soon be our new gfs,it's proving creditable at the moment.

[Tim Bland]

Great set of GFS runs. Love GFSp