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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Location: Barnsley
    1 minute ago, Hatewarmth said:

    We need to stick to the reliable time frame which is 96 at best and ALL model are just showing the same theme.  These downbeat comments are laughable.  It may turn out that the ECM at day 6 is correct but the one model that models cold the best is the UKMO FACT and upto 96 hours it’s spot on where we need it to be fir cold

    Sorry doctor I quoted the wrong post.  Meant to quote where he describes each model lol

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    Quick summary, GFS cold and snowy by 144 Para cold and snowy by 144 Ukmo cold and snowy by 144 Gem cold and snowy by 156 ECM cold and VERY snowy by 156.  

    OMG I love this post . Shows just what a weird but wonderful bunch coldies are ! Your post in a nutshell sums up just how much this means for cold and snow lovers . Bless you Mike . 

    Yes ! Low pressure finally developing over northern Italy . A biting east ne flow heavy snow showers driven much further inland . Lots of instability . Enjoy the snow UK coldies . Really gre

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Ummm looked a little better very early.. however at 120 it has the low still over us.. move towards ECM?
     

     

    image.png

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Incoming on the 6z...and we are gaining on the wrap around=introducing of deeper [email protected] ecm lagging big time...imo!!!   Cannot post images atm....

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    At T120 UKMO better have this right . 

    BAECEC5A-2DFB-4415-9309-990D4834750E.png

    FE4F11AB-4EB0-44FA-A5EE-68024F24C311.png

    0439BE4C-FB3A-471A-AFA2-36A5563597F3.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    06z so far not quite as good as the 00z for Thursday/Friday, as it props the low up over northern Britain rather than 00z which had it W/SW of Ireland.

    Yeah this is going to be a poorer run IMO, at least between 144-192hrs.

    Expect a brief weak NW shot followed by an atlantic breakdown on this 06z run. Maybe snow from any frontal push between 192-240hrs.

    As I said before the only thing that matters is the LP over our shores. If it stays you can kiss goodbye to any meaningful cold spell. End of story as it'll get absorbed into the Atlantic LP developing eventually and force a weak as dish water NW intrusion 

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    4 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

    I expect the ECM will be brought back into line over the next couple of runs.

    Why? Because it doesn't match ones favour? Thats wishful thinking but not synoptical logic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Yep. Looks likely that we have a Uk against the rest situation.. where’s your money.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    06z GFS is alot closer to the ICOM/ECM solution of holding that cut off low over the UK for longer.

    This run MAY not evolve as well as previous ones.

    Don't bother looking upstream yet, everything that is KEY for us even getting a cold spell is right on our doorstep.

    Yeh it has little, but I think it will still just get away with it as  high pressure is just strong enough over Iceland 

    UKMO at 4pm will be fascinating viewing.

     

    gfsnh-0-138 (5).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.361a2d04ffc165e60c12a259c7176976.png

    ECM 120

    image.thumb.png.8ca3bd29181e4f66c75985ad50d1aa5a.png

    GFS 120

    Very alike in terms of this pesky LP

    Edited by MJB
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Yeh it has little, but I think it will still just get away with it as  high pressure is just strong enough over Iceland 

    UKMO at 4pm will be fascinating viewing.

     

    gfsnh-0-138 (5).png

    Its going to be a mighty struggle though with such a limpet upper low over the UK. May get a brief easterly still but the atlantic low is going to push over the UK as per 00z ECM.

    Honestly the HP means nothing if the cutoff low just lingers, there isn't huge forcing from that HP to our north to shunt it all southwards on this run, and we've seen what the ECM does longer on.

    Besides the trend is real clear this morning towards the ECM solution between 72-120hrs, any one arguing against that is willfully ignoring that simple thing.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Had a look at individual ECM ensembles at T162.

    Only 3 out of 51 were close to the op run in terms of that low over northern Scotland.

    The far more likely way we'll avoid the easterly, according to the ensembles, is by the low clearly too quickly, leaving us under high pressure (though still probably cold).

    I feel fairly content having seen the ensembles one by one that the ECM op is going to be too far north with that low between D6 and D7.

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    144 is key, its at that point ECM shoots off to the high end of the ENS

    Edited by MJB
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    Just now, MJB said:

    image.thumb.png.361a2d04ffc165e60c12a259c7176976.png

    ECM 120

    image.thumb.png.8ca3bd29181e4f66c75985ad50d1aa5a.png

    GFS 120

    Very alike 

    Yes but there is no phasing on the GFS giving it more chance to sink south. No model  is right or wrong lol they will all merge.

    ps if you need a snow fix tune into the demonstration coverage in Moscow on the news channels...makes me wanna join the riot 🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    15 minutes ago, MJB said:

    Not really , the passion and chase for snow will always remain no matter what the circumstances even more so I'd say given the boredom most are experiencing .

    The chase for snow is fine I agree but not the dramatics by adults. Here's hoping for some snow anyways whatever your collective thoughts ete. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, thunderstorms and sunny summer days.
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
    2 minutes ago, MJB said:

    image.thumb.png.361a2d04ffc165e60c12a259c7176976.png

    ECM 120

    image.thumb.png.8ca3bd29181e4f66c75985ad50d1aa5a.png

    GFS 120

    Very alike 

    Looks like a douze point to the ECM for sticking to its guns

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    Just now, kold weather said:

    Its going to be a mighty struggle though with such a limpet upper low over the UK. May get a brief easterly still but the atlantic low is going to push over the UK as per 00z ECM.

    Honestly the HP means nothing if the cutoff low just lingers, there isn't huge forcing from that HP to our north to shunt it all southwards on this run, and we've seen what the ECM does longer on.

     

    Surely it will help push it further south than the ECM though? Even its just a nudge out the way that's all we need

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    Yes but there is no phasing on the GFS giving it more chance to sink south. No model  is right or wrong lol they will all merge.

    ps if you need a snow fix tune into the demonstration coverage in Moscow on the news channels...makes me wanna join the riot 🤣

    Yes , that's very true . 

    Yep , I saw that , half of them are only there for the snow lol 

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Incoming on the 6z...and we are gaining on the wrap around=introducing of deeper [email protected] ecm lagging big time...imo!!!   Cannot post images atm....

    See what you’re saying @tight isobar as shown on below uppers.. however so annoying this run as that pesky low over us is now filling in situ and preventing the amazing Synoptics to our north.

    image.thumb.png.81f73bf557899dff7fb9a45653806ac2.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    Just now, Tim Bland said:

    Yes but there is no phasing on the GFS giving it more chance to sink south. No model  is right or wrong lol they will all merge.

    ps if you need a snow fix tune into the demonstration coverage in Moscow on the news channels...makes me wanna join the riot 🤣

    The one good thing is the LP to our west is pretty weak by 144hrs.

    Might end up with the north in a mean easterly and the south not actually getting all that cold due to the angle of the LP?

    Looks like a decent snow event for the north though between 144-168hrs. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    From my experience in the models, do we not always say until ukmo is on board then it’s likely to go the shape of a pear? In this case ukmo is clearly what we are looking for so I’d say there’s a good chance the others will slowly fall in line. Not exactly the same but we will get a bit of a blend. No point worrying about every single opp run lol. 
    oh well who’s excited for the 12z??? ❄️😍😂😳

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    Posted
  • Location: Stunning Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Stunning Shropshire
    Just now, TSNWK said:

    See what you’re saying @tight isobar as shown on below uppers.. however so annoying this run as that pesky low over us is now filling in situ and preventing the amazing Synoptics to our north.

    image.thumb.png.81f73bf557899dff7fb9a45653806ac2.png

     

    Could bring a snow covering before the easterly sets in though? 🙂 

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    4 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Had a look at individual ECM ensembles at T162.

    Only 3 out of 51 were close to the op run in terms of that low over northern Scotland.

    The far more likely way we'll avoid the easterly, according to the ensembles, is by the low clearly too quickly, leaving us under high pressure (though still probably cold).

    I feel fairly content having seen the ensembles one by one that the ECM op is going to be too far north with that low between D6 and D7.

    Quite... and to illustrate

    image.thumb.png.9e6fd257c5eb4a3e17c3e58e95c033eb.png

    image.thumb.png.14b005ff70f42ed309fe0e0917d15c2b.png

     

     

    Edited by Purga
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