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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    06z underway & Holding steady 🙂 well someone had to do it.... 😉

     

    image.png

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    Quick summary, GFS cold and snowy by 144 Para cold and snowy by 144 Ukmo cold and snowy by 144 Gem cold and snowy by 156 ECM cold and VERY snowy by 156.  

    OMG I love this post . Shows just what a weird but wonderful bunch coldies are ! Your post in a nutshell sums up just how much this means for cold and snow lovers . Bless you Mike . 

    Yes ! Low pressure finally developing over northern Italy . A biting east ne flow heavy snow showers driven much further inland . Lots of instability . Enjoy the snow UK coldies . Really gre

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    If EC is right i won't be logging on.

    Peeps dont like it when we say certain things on here but tough luck lol!!!after looking closer to the ukmo and ecm the differences start as early as 72 hours!!!!ukmo further south and disrupts a bit more over the uk whereas ecm shoves further north and east!!if you were to ask me which ones right i would say ecm allll daaaayyy long mate!!!for it to be wrong at 72 hours is very very very rare!!!!!!not EXPECTING a good outcome later northwest but i hope for everyones and my sanity that the ecm does one of those big u turns that it very rarely does!!!i an an ecm fan because it is the king of all models in my opinion but as i mentioned yesterday every king has its bad day!!will that be today?!you damn well better hope so!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    24 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

    Wondering how this will shake up in our neck of the woods. GEFS are pretty crazy from day 5 but this is probably the last chance for something significant here. If this fails I'm ready for spring. 

    image.thumb.png.d7313a42bb3b4ed959431d8b04ee1275.png 

    EC is on the outter rim of possibilities, GEFS looking good with a stunning control run. But I would not say it's the last chance. Patterns are good, cold is very near (on the continent) ---> Russia

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    gfs-moscow-ru-56n-375e.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    This circulating on Twitter is interesting.. 

    Posters surmise that since Tuesday the ECM error has been decreasing, while the others have been increasing.  My view of it is that ECM (whilst improving) is still not doing as well as the others...most importantly UKMO  🤷🏻‍♂️ 

    527CA433-50F6-4C43-A538-32E225B32938.jpeg

    Presumably the lower the line the better ........ecm with less error at day 3 

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    27 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

    Proves you cannot discount what the ECM is showing now,,,could start to see other models back track from the Easterly scenario over the next day or so 

    I fully expect this to happen. This is based on past experience. Ecm op is top dog at days 5 to 7. If it goes in a different direction the other models will eventually follow. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    Squeaky bum time coming up on the 6z....

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Presumably the lower the line the better ........ecm with less error at day 3 

    Ahh ok, makes sense. Still looks like EC / UKM are close.  Sound like some are expecting one model to be right and one to be wrong. It rarely works like that though does it... We are likely to see a meeting in the middle, probably somewhere between UKMO & ECM, it probably won’t be sorted today, perhaps tomorrow.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    So if ecm is right does that mean yesterday’s meto update is a bust.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Very early.. but at 72 I reckon the low to the north west of Ireland is about 50 miles further south east compared with 00z 78

    image.thumb.png.8b8c104eaae60424f7b9c7fdd4d57c2b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: newquay, cornwall
  • Location: newquay, cornwall
    2 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

    So if ecm is right does that mean yesterday’s meto update is a bust.

    And if tomorrow’s Neto update is correct then today’s ecm is wrong 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Edited
    That said the outcome however it lands probably if "its what looks possible at best" would provide a slack easterly and a cold spell. Gfs, ukmo look cold with wintry precipitation in places esp to the far north. Beyond that ie 144 hrs nothing to get uptight about on the basis you can't change it. Whatever the weather stay safe, and count your blessings 🙏🙏

    Edited by Blessed Weather
    Unnecessary comment removed
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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    Just now, swfc said:

    Seems to be quite a few drama queen's on here this morning close to breaking point over the mo, jesus it's just weather and given the current state of affairs slightly silly😞That said the outcome however it lands probably if "its what looks possible at best" would provide a slack easterly and a cold spell. Gfs, ukmo look cold with wintry precipitation in places esp to the far north. Beyond that ie 144 hrs nothing to get uptight about on the basis you can't change it. Whatever the weather stay safe, and count your blessings 🙏🙏

    Not really , the passion and chase for snow will always remain no matter what the circumstances even more so I'd say given the boredom most are experiencing .

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Good to see the ECM again is right at the top end of the mean for its ensembles, suggests most of its ensembles are moving the LP in a more favorable way than the OP does, though I've not thumbed through the actual runs, the mean suggests that is the case as well.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Looks pretty similar at day 4 to UKMO

    22BC0B08-B7F2-4865-B07E-11F7C7CECF71.png

    A44F5BD4-508D-465C-8EAB-B84F19F6CE4E.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    06z GFS is alot closer to the ICOM/ECM solution of holding that cut off low over the UK for longer.

    This run MAY not evolve as well as previous ones.

    Don't bother looking upstream yet, everything that is KEY for us even getting a cold spell is right on our doorstep.

    May still get there but poorer run incoming I fear.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    If you want the quickest route to cold you want ukmo to be right and in my opinion i dont think it is and that is at day 3!!!!pretty bad that is!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
    8 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

    And if tomorrow’s Neto update is correct then today’s ecm is wrong 

    I expect the ECM will be brought back into line over the next couple of runs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Location: Barnsley
    2 hours ago, doctormog said:

    Re. Your last point, the ECM op runs have been a very long way from being consistent.

    We need to stick to the reliable time frame which is 96 at best and ALL model are just showing the same theme.  These downbeat comments are laughable.  It may turn out that the ECM at day 6 is correct but the one model that models cold the best is the UKMO FACT and upto 96 hours it’s spot on where we need it to be fir cold

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Yep LP is moving in a bad way for the UK between 102-114hrs with slight NE drift, complete opposite direction we want it to go.

    The 06z run is not going to go the way we want it to at least in the medium term, definite shift towards the ECM on this run, big time.

    Given most models have already delayed the LP moving out of the way by 24hrs compared to yesterday other than the UKMO, I fear there is a clear and obvious trend line starting to emerge towards ECM solution today.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    Just now, Hatewarmth said:

    We need to stick to the reliable time frame which is 96 at best and ALL model are just showing the same theme.  These downbeat comments are laughable.  It may turn out that the ECM at day 6 is correct but the one model that models cold the best is the UKMO FACT and upto 96 hours it’s spot on where we need it to be fir cold

    Do you have stats to back up your FACT?

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    If you want the quickest route to cold you want ukmo to be right and in my opinion i dont think it is and that is at day 3!!!!pretty bad that is!!!!

    It’s never that simple though mate. I’ve seen it for decades. The models almost always meet in the middle , there is no clear winner or right & wrong.  GFS moves a bit towards ECM, then ECM moves a bit towards GFS ..and so on , until they meet in the middle. UKMO will not be right or wrong come the day, it will -almost definitely look like a blend of the other models, the changes are subtle, run by run, it doesn’t suddenly flip so it’s often un noticed. 

    Edited by Tim Bland
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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    06z so far not quite as good as the 00z for Thursday/Friday, as it props the low up over northern Britain rather than 00z which had it W/SW of Ireland.

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

     GFS 96

     ECM 96

    They aren't that different I'm afraid 

     

     

    Edited by MJB
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