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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    I dunno what to say about the gfs anymore!!i mean if it cant even get a low right at just 2 or 3 days out its hopeless!!the move towards ecm (king) for friday is just astonishing!!!i mean if no ones taken a look please do on meteociel just click on archives and take a look!!!i understand if its 6 or 7 days out then fair enough but this backtrack towards ecm is at such short notice its just not good enough!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    The GFS with its four runs a day reminds of the old saying. Give him enough rope and he'll hang himself.

     

    Yes, we should really ignore the 06z and 18z but when cold is forecast, that is harder than it sounds!

    The gfs (FWIW) is poor at d10:

    gfseu-0-240.thumb.png.7f5bc5d68287bc12ab8aae6290a433f8.pnggfseu-1-240.thumb.png.c7bcdbddd812c9caaeece00de8b72672.png

    Worth watching just in case...

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
    1 minute ago, supernova said:

    06z GFS Para ejects the limpet low slightly faster without blowing it up which allows the incoming system to slide like the UKMO and ECM. Bingo...the whole country but especially the east side of the UK gets plastered. 

    spacer.png

    We know how poorly these LPs are modelled (too far north/south) so we will not know with any ;evel of  certainty what will happen after Friday until it has arrived, done it's thing and gone.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
    3 minutes ago, ITSY said:

    It's incredibly similar to UKMO and ECM in terms of placement of the block. GFS Op has a different solution...

    Down to the increased number of height levels modelled perhaps?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    20 minutes ago, DCee said:

    GFS sticking to its guns. The theme is north south divide. 

    image.thumb.png.139325c7a9afcfc49293e31ea1bdcbd2.png

    But it's also nothing like the 00z.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, the GFS 06Z must be wrong; it must be very wrong! Even Day 10 looks like crap!😁

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Not that any of it will affect the real weather, anyway?🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    So it looks like we have UKMO/ECM/GEM/GFS para VS GFS OP, it does look out on its own this morning. However GFS can't be ruled out (ensembles included)

    UKMO/ECM/GEM all in remarkable agreement for day 6, if you had to make a forecast you'd surely have to side with the Euros/Canadian models. If 12z Euros stick with it you'd expect GFS to come back on board.

    ECM

    spacer.png

    UKMO

    spacer.png

    GEM

    spacer.png

     

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    So two things to note from the 06z suite so far:

    1: ICON has a subtle shift towards the GFS, particularly with a strong low in the Atlantic. Its key that this doesn't get too strong as the stronger it gets the more likely the limpet low or the Euro low gets absorbed into its flow = goodbye any cold spell apart from the north.

    2: GFS has shifted towards the ECM/UKMO in one key way, its got a more realistic dealing of the Iberian low, which is good to see. It still keeps a weak upper trough over the north of England/Scotland for so long that it still gets absorbed into the broader flow from the Atlantic.

    So we see some more convergence compared to the 00z on the two models above. A middle ground probably keeps the cold away from the south at first but probably does bring it down eventually ahead of any attack from the SW. 

    However, lets hope the GFS continues to shift.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol
    13 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    I cant see gfs being correct over both ukmo and ecm!!especially with the early backtrack on gfs 06z!!COULD be some really happy peeps on here again this evening!!!!

    I really want to agree but not comfortable until there is cross model agreement at close timeframes. GFS has been on its own before and then the others have moved towards it to meet "half way", if you know what I mean. Small disturbances that crop up at high res could impact things down the line (Hopefully for the better. 😅

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    You know what guys...I hate GFS i really do!! People say its been consistent lately...well its been consistent at being 1st to bring a pattern change,and 1st too dropnthe idea..does it just want to keep reverting back to climatology normal! Know wonder the Americans relie on a blend of the Euros for there forecasts..

    Exactly been saying this over the last few days to 1 or 2 members...GFS always goes with an idea on a cold pattern change with some consistent extreme runs only to drop it a lot closer to the 'impact' time...glad we more or less have the UKMO/ECM blend v GFS currently.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    I dunno what to say about the gfs anymore!!i mean if it cant even get a low right at just 2 or 3 days out its hopeless!!t

    But we know this and have done for ten years, especially the 6z and 18z.

    That's why this GFS is again going to be upgraded shortly.

    I say it every year, but if the ECM and UKM gave us free access to the amount of data GFS does, we would rarely even refer to the GFS at all.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    Just now, Frosty Winter said:

     Definitely a small improvement on the GFS 06z compared to the 00z run. Hopefully it’ll fall into line with the other models later!

    673E68B3-70F7-48EC-B886-C992687EA1B3.png

    37646B42-6CF2-4BA6-A347-1481BC09AD78.jpeg

    Indeed. Encouraging.😄

    4F14AB2F-B49C-4669-8D78-300062411838.png

    12EDACA3-67C2-4621-B01C-61F30C3BAB8B.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    My last post before this afternoons outputs.

    If the shortwave over the se is modelled incorrectly you can put the rest of the run in the bin.

    Thats because there is little middle ground in these scenarios , once that gets caught in the upstream trough and starts moving more nw it will pull the upstream troughing ne enough to keep the colder air stuck to the north .

    The important start of the backtrack from the GFS is there earlier and its NH pattern is also different .

    The GFS rarely makes sudden switches , it will slowly move.

    Perhaps illustrates that, while mean runs have their value on occasions, this is not one of them!

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

    Day 6 and the GEFS mean is better than the Op, but not great and definitely not great for anywhere south of the midlands!! 


    Big big 12zs, later 👀

    4D807819-3611-4699-88EA-9FF8D16552FC.png

    E3081839-579B-4709-9182-1D20226F64AE.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    GFS beginning it’s process to climb down gradually but surely as stated in last blog 

    a very cold spell coming up with plenty of the white stuff,before turning dry and very cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    6 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Well, the GFS 06Z must be wrong; it must be very wrong! Even Day 10 looks like crap!😁

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Not that any of it will affect the real weather, anyway?🤔

    Oh look - there's a cold north westerly at 300 hrs! 😃

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Last 3 Gfs runs at the same time frame , absolutely no consistency, Those saying it’s leading I’m sorry I just can’t see this at all , I’m not saying the last run won’t be correct that would be foolish .

    edit I see the 12z from yesterday is day out but remember it developed a big dartboard low , completely different.

    D9F3BBFC-A938-458F-9CB4-21A11159AEE8.png

    5D5E9D07-6988-4FF5-9450-61CD0561667C.png

    CF780204-2780-4FF1-A2ED-F1F0DAF523E3.png

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    3 hours ago, JimBob said:

    So yesterday ECM was clearly broke and GFS was the most reliable, today it’s switched!  Seems like people are taking what they want from whichever is the best model, rather than looking at the trends?

    Hmm really? When you have the ECM and UKMO signing from the same hymn sheet, plus the GEM and ICON then I think it's reasonable for people at this stage to side with the cold solution winning out? The GFS and GEFS are currently on their own in their development of that low pressure system and how it tracks near the UK. You're saying to look at trends:

    ECM & EPS - stunning

    UKMO - excellent

    GEM - excellent

    ICON - excellent

    GFSp - Good

    GFS  and GEFS 0z - mediocre

    So explain how people should react to the latest suite of model runs based on the above?

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    Why do people pay more attention to the older version of the GFS than the newer version? Surely the newer version verifies better. A complete waste of money otherwise!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Although the 6z isn't great, at least it hasn't continued the trend seen on the previous two runs.

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