Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Daniel]

Gfs looks worse than 18z the cold air doesn't even reach Scotland with the low approaching from the south again 

[Mike Poole]

GFS and UKMO T96:

The low on UKMO just needs to move SE, GFS a bit more diffuse.

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo at 120 has snow written all over it for the south east can't wait to see them 850mb temps

[Mike Poole]

GFS and UKMO T120, and I think both will clear the low SE at last:

[Drifter]

Another awful gfs run is unfolding for the south east. Plus 4 uppers at day five!

[Mucka]

GFS is awful in the early stages, pinning any cold to the N with the SW low stalling over Ireland and filling

Thankfully UKMO much better in that regard

UKMO/GFS 96h

GFS is similarly placed by 120 but UKMO would bring the cold further S and be quicker and have a more direct E flow at 120

Edited February 2, 2021 by Mucka

[Battleground Snow]

GFS not backing down at 132!

UKMO 144 is wonderful though, ukmo 850mb temps attached too

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Daniel*]

UKMO good and steadfast GFS 00z is worse than 18z.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS not backing down at 132!

UKMO 144 is wonderful though

Would like to see the low bit further south than that though, probably OK, but want to check the uppers when available for the SE.

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS is wretched- if it turns out that way then this will be a huge huge let down

[Daniel*]

Worst case scenario you thought 18z was bad...

Edited February 2, 2021 by Daniel*

[Mucka]

GFSp is somewhere between UKMO and GFS op, probably a little more UKMO and gives a nationwide dumping Sat/Sun

 

 

Bank!

[Mike Poole]

UKMO at T144:

GFS at T144:

This is going horribly wrong now, the low hasn’t cleared and the next lows instead of going under could phase and turn into a nightmare scenario:

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Worst case scenario you thought 18z was bad...

The Greenland high might come to the rescue later in the run, but it's crap compared to the Ukmo, agreed

[Continental Climate]

The GFS sets up an awesome easterly.....for Iceland .  Truly wretched stuff hopefully not supported by its ensembles. Watch gfs be right on this occasion. You couldn't make this up. 

[northwestsnow]

LOL.

You couldn't make it up .

UKMO is fabulous,ICON is fabulous   .

GFS , really really bad .

Certainly do not want EC following that dogs dinner.

[Drifter]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

LOL.

You couldn't make it up .

UKMO is fabulous,ICON is fabulous   .

GFS , really really bad .

Certainly do not want EC following that dogs dinner.

Why is nothing ever easy?

[snowspotter]

I honestly think the signs are unfolding here for too much energy to get an easterly forming for us . The GFS insists on lows buckling an early easterly flow . It’s game over after that . Seen it so many times . I want the be wrong but I can’t see a good outcome here . The bbc aren’t buying the cold , no warnings from met as well . It’s just my view to be prepared for it going wrong that way you won’t start throwing toys about . Oh for the old days when an easterly would just ease itself in . 

[Mike Poole]

T850s on UKMO fine at T144, but ideally you’d want the low further south so there isn’t any question.  This run is fine, but it is just a worry that half the envelope of uncertainty isn’t fine now!

[Phil Blake]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL.

You couldn't make it up .

UKMO is fabulous,ICON is fabulous   .

GFS , really really bad .

Certainly do not want EC following that dogs dinner.

My money would have to be on the ukmo over gfs

[Daniel*]

UKMO uppers T120 and T140.

 

What we will really need is a good run for ECM the UKMO can be last to backtrack on occasion, anticipating another crap GEFS.

[Battleground Snow]

Para is a good run, nationwide snow and still cold past 168 

 

[Mucka]

GFSp 40CM of snow widely mostly over next weekend and into Mon, not bad.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Mucka

[Battleground Snow]

GEM is also good, much more ukmo than GFS, this will be a corker by 144.

 

[Daniel*]

GFSp 00z is a significant improvement to 18z !