Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[sheikhy]

Just now, cheshire snow said:

LOL

Last night you said ECM was the top model

C.S

It is which is why we seen the rubbish spewed out from the models today barr gfs but short term it has its flaws as we seen recently!!seems to make much more of the snow for some reason compared to gfs in these type of situations!hope its right LOL!

[nick sussex]

The GFS 06 hrs run is moving towards the ECM/UKMO solutions by day 5 .  You can still end up with a decent cold shot if shortwave energy near Greenland disrupts more favourably se under pinning any high to the ne .

 

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, GFS continues to bring in the Atlantic, can see meto warnings dropped mon to wed, away from far north, 9 degrees over our areas

 

 

Indeed if the met use the 06z GFS run from today without any other input they will drop the warnings 

[sheikhy]

Expecting meto to drop the warnings!!by the way gfs 06s moves towards ecm!!

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS 06 hrs run is moving towards the ECM/UKMO solutions by day 5 .  You can still end up with a decent cold shot if shortwave energy near Greenland disrupts more favourably se under pinning any high to the ne .

 

 

[frosty ground]

Models rarely move in one direction they usually meet in the middle 

[bluearmy]

Gfs v different around greeny to the euros days 5/6. That’s just one piece of the jigsaw though - the idea that it’s everything isn’t correct but it is an important piece 

[Purga]

Seemingly a much better evolution. Arctic High linking down nicely this time.

0z                                                                         06z

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Purga

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Purga said:

Seemingly a much better evolution. Arctic High linking down nicely this time.

0z                                                                         06z

 

.which makes it an even less reliable solution !  

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs v different around greeny to the euros days 5/6. That’s just one piece of the jigsaw though - the idea that it’s everything isn’t correct but it is an important piece 

Not liking the 00z trends Nick...

Certainly EC is going the wrong way and it would be little suprise if GFS follows...

Little suprise to myself I should add...

Edited January 30, 2021 by northwestsnow

[winterof79]

A peach of a chart. 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Not liking the 00z trends Nick...

Certainly EC is going the wrong way and it would be little suprise if GFS follows...

Why..... more often than not the ECM has adjusted towards the GFS after going off on one this winter. 

[nick sussex]

The ECM/UKMO set up to the ne is now supported by the GFS 06 hrs run and I think even with the former shortwave issues this is the better route for sustained cold and getting the deep cold into the UK.

 

[Lampostwatcher]

6z so far is a boom ❄❄

[frosty ground]

8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Expecting meto to drop the warnings!!by the way gfs 06s moves towards ecm!!

So the GFS is showing snow to rain or quick transition but the gfs has moved to the ECM and now you think the warning will be removed.

 

slightly confused

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, winterof79 said:

A peach of a chart. 

Yes - we get a better draw of air from the NE 

[That ECM]

No dramas. On to the 12z’s

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

Why..... more often than not the ECM has adjusted towards the GFS after going off on one this winter. 

Hope you are right!12zs will be more revealing.6z looks good,phew.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes - we get a better draw of air from the NE 

but need to see the EC go same way, key 12Z's

[Mike Poole]

The fact that the Arctic high has such an important part to play in the period T120 - T168 is probably making it difficult for the models to see the way forward beyond this point:

The models find Arctic high’s difficult.

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

6z so far is a boom ❄❄

It is for the central belt of Scotland on paper, extraordinary charts with persistent snowfall, if these charts stay the same, we could easily see a foot of snow in these areas even on modest higher levels. 

[damianslaw]

I said yesterday too much volatility in model runs last 24 hrs, let this one ride out over the weekend. Reactions to every run will only add to a headache!

[pdiddy]

Lol.  "if the Met do their forecast based on the GFS 06z, blah blah blah". 

The fact that there are significant changes run to run explains exactly why the corporations wouldn't do that.  Also, it's sometimes informative to compare the previous 06z to this one, rather than focusing on changes from run to run.  Very happy with this so far:

[TSNWK]

For the south east I’m completely underwhelmed.. 850s objectively indicate an outcome to expect regardless of the eye candy Synoptics the below is what we get and actually they are warming up from the south east.

 

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

So the GFS is showing snow to rain or quick transition but the gfs has moved to the ECM and now you think the warning will be removed.

 

slightly confused

I think we will see a middle ground as always!!but for the snow on tuesday warnings will be reduced for just northern england!!hope im wrong!!