Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Ice Day]

The Para at 138 is looking much  better

 

UKMO for 144

 

ECM for 144

      

Much better consistency, this could be a good moment for the Para if this does come off!

[cheshire snow]

My honest opinion if UKMO and ECM hold steady this evening GFS will be asking for forgiveness by tomorrow morning 

C.S

[Notty]

Looking forward to the GEFs to see if there is any more concensus after 5th now. This to-ing and fro-ing is very wearing.

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, Notty said:

Looking forward to the GEFs to see if there is any more concensus after 5th now. This to-ing and fro-ing is very wearing.

There you go.

They don’t know what to do with the low. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by That ECM

[Duane S.]

Standard GFS D5/6 wobble? Happens oh so often in these situations, it rarely snaps back, almost always skulks back slowly .

Mustn’t discount it though, the BBC (Meteogroup) are seeing next week like this, with SWerlies prevailing. It might well be on to something, it really is a very complicated messy one to resolve, but my money would have to be on the Euro combo right now.

A lot will come down to timing as to which path it goes.

[jamesgold]

3 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

OMG I can't believe how big the change in models from last night and this morning!!! Rubbish for SE England. Let's hope it will change again.

**the GFS models** - everything else still looks fine

[sheikhy]

I cant see gfs being correct over both ukmo and ecm!!especially with the early backtrack on gfs 06z!!COULD be some really happy peeps on here again this evening!!!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

3 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

OMG I can't believe how big the change in models from last night and this morning!!! Rubbish for SE England. Let's hope it will change again.

One model, not all of them.

In all fairness, living in Brighton requires a miracle most of the time to get snow.

[IDO]

The gfs op 06z is a shocker for the south, very similar to that disappointing non-Greenland high in Jan, with the easterly too far north and we know that may last 5-7 days (Jan did and the easterly ecm is modelling suggests this). So the gfs takes us to another holding period waiting for another shot at cold in the south. The North will see some cold and snow.

Thankfully nearly every other model disagrees so still time for gfs to backtrack!

[Gowon]

Just now, cheshire snow said:

My honest opinion if UKMO and ECM hold steady this evening GFS will be asking for forgiveness by tomorrow morning 

C.S

I agree.. If you look at the earlier time frame you can see there is less darker blues over Iceland - I reckon it's gfs's way of slowly creeping back towards the ueros.. Or I could be talking absolute rubbish 

[Notty]

Looks to me as if there are two groups of runs in the short ENS. The Op and Control together in the slightly less popular group early on.

 

[danm]

3 hours ago, Weathizard said:

It’s nearly holy grail charts for the U.K.

Yep that ECM chart at 168hrs is an absolute stunner. Snow showers piling in from the east, bitterly cold, no marginality, no snow melt. That is winter weather porn. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by danm

[throwoff]

1 minute ago, D.V.R said:

I agree.. If you look at the earlier time frame you can see there is less darker blues over Iceland - I reckon it's gfs's way of slowly creeping back towards the ueros.. Or I could be talking absolute rubbish 

As a GFS fanboy I am hoping I get to eat my hat tomorrow!

[Ice Day]

The Para at 168 is really good - starting to look a lot like the ECM

 

[turkishfella]

1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

One model, not all of them.

In all fairness, living in Brighton requires a miracle most of the time to get snow.

I think I will move up somewhere in the middle  house prices are cheaper as well  

[nick sussex]

My last post before this afternoons outputs.

If the shortwave over the se is modelled incorrectly you can put the rest of the run in the bin.

Thats because there is little middle ground in these scenarios , once that gets caught in the upstream trough and starts moving more nw it will pull the upstream troughing ne enough to keep the colder air stuck to the north .

The important start of the backtrack from the GFS is there earlier and its NH pattern is also different .

The GFS rarely makes sudden switches , it will slowly move.

[Singularity]

GFS partway reverted, just didn't quite get there - but the way it takes the low back northwest is starkly different to the other deterministic model runs.

GFS(P) has adjusted more toward ECM and UKMO having not been that poor on the 00z anyway.

ECM and UKMO were highly consistent with their prior runs and had support from GEM too. EPS also held very steady.

 

So that's both consistency and trend voting for the low to head to our southeast, then vacate eastward rather than head back northwest.

I daresay that's at least 3/4 probability of such an outcome.

[Notty]

Sunday morning could be very white for many according to GFS 06z //

[Duane S.]

Imagine the GFS didn’t exist and the Para was it. We’d have  many more happy people on here right now.

MONSTER Greenland High

[Chesil View]

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

The gfs op 06z is a shocker for the south, very similar to that disappointing non-Greenland high in Jan, with the easterly too far north and we know that may last 5-7 days (Jan did and the easterly ecm is modelling suggests this). So the gfs takes us to another holding period waiting for another shot at cold in the south. The North will see some cold and snow.

Thankfully nearly every other model disagrees so still time for gfs to backtrack!

The GFS with its four runs a day reminds of the old saying. Give him enough rope and he'll hang himself.

 

[Notty]

1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

Imagine the GFS didn’t exist and the Para was it. We’d have  many more happy people on here right now.

MONSTER Greenland High

At least it appears more consistent run to run than the Op.

[supernova]

06z GFS Para ejects the limpet low slightly faster without blowing it up which allows the incoming system to slide like the UKMO and ECM. Bingo...the whole country but especially the east side of the UK gets plastered. 

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, throwoff said:

As a GFS fanboy I am hoping I get to eat my hat tomorrow!

If it does backtrack, you should record yourself eating your hat and pop it in the other thread 

[ITSY]

3 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Imagine the GFS didn’t exist and the Para was it. We’d have  many more happy people on here right now.

MONSTER Greenland High

It's incredibly similar to UKMO and ECM in terms of placement of the block. GFS Op has a different solution...

[Battleground Snow]

Can see the subtle change in the mean, the low is weaker around the channel and a tad further south, by the 12z run this should have almost fully corrected I think.