Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Bradley in Kent]

9 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Looks like the GFS for same time now. 

 

Find it so funny we're talking about charts just 100 hours away and still absolutely terrified it's all going to go wrong 

Us UK coldies have some serious mental health scars from being led up the garden path so many times.

Good evening, coldies such as myself know deep down that cold spells are always against the odds and tide. (but not impossible).

Put it this way:

Mild chart with SW'ly winds in 6 days will verify because models are going with the tide. Maybe a little left or right but nothing will reverse that in that timeframe.

Cold chart with E'lys in 6 days time - unlikely to verify because the models are trying to predict something against the tide. Many forces are trying to reverse the outcome, and of course 9 times out of 10 suceed resulting in those ghost cold spells. "Now you see it now you don't"

Of course its worth mentioning that every 5 years or so that those forces are getting more of the upper hand.

However I'd be lying if I said I'm not looking at the models, after all, I'm here posting in this thread!

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Anyone seen latest fax for 120 hours!?!!!

Bit early ?

[SLEETY]

Think models have been underplaying the cold if anything,could be bedlam in here tomorrow and onwards.

Some of the coldest ever spells have been in February for various reasons.Sledges just been added to the basket,waiting for the green light.................

[chionomaniac]

So every 6 hours we are going to have to run the gauntlet of each model run until we get into a reliable timeframe.  I know, that no one on here will trust any output until we are within 2-3 days, as we have seen it all before and find that an exploding European low blows up mild air from SE Europe into the mix, or a shortwave blocks the easterly. So, it’s a matter of taking ‘one game at a time’ and hopefully we will get to where we want to be. First hurdle is T+120 to see the set up aligning for the easterly. Then we can worry about what follows closer to the time.

[TallPaul]

2 hours ago, GokouD said:

Me too

Just a flake and I'll be happy...

[ICE COLD]

Steady eddy out to T96 lol

[Johnp]

12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Anyone seen latest fax for 120 hours!?!!!

No and neither have you

Edited February 1, 2021 by Johnp

[kold weather]

GFS looking fine out to 84hrs, more or less the same as the 12z run.

I think we are getting close to the point where at least for the north we are getting close to nailed on now. Still some worries I've got further south, particularly in the SE with the risk of a LP developing to our south and swinging NE/NNE towards the SE before the cold air has the chance to really set in down here. Luckily that could also bring the risk of snow as well into the region but the path is a fine line to tread.

However lets make sure we get the easterly flow in in the first place first.

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z T90 v 12z T96

It isn’t the pesky lows that bothers me here, it is the link to the Arctic high, should we be getting cut off from this so early.  Still, the long draw is there, but one to watch nonetheless. 

[ICE COLD]

T102 easterly into the north. Can’t believe I’m doing this at T100  

[weirpig]

No dramas on the 18z   cold uppers in on saturday  

[Optimus Prime]

Global 2m temp anomaly interesting at day 7. Serious cold running out of Alaska and Canada and in to North America. North America and Europe trend setting in for thr month ahead.

 

Finally a proper February for cold for a change.

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

GFS looking fine out to 84hrs, more or less the same as the 12z run.

I think we are getting close to the point where at least for the north we are getting close to nailed on now. Still some worries I've got further south, particularly in the SE with the risk of a LP developing to our south and swinging NE/NNE towards the SE before the cold air has the chance to really set in down here. Luckily that could also bring the risk of snow as well into the region but the path is a fine line to tread.

However lets make sure we get the easterly flow in in the first place first.

Yep I agree with that. Slightly more flabby set up to T+102, but not much in it

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z T90 v 12z T96

It isn’t the pesky lows that bothers me here, it is the link to the Arctic high, should we be getting cut off from this so early.  Still, the long draw is there, but one to watch nonetheless. 

Not asleep Mike

[snowice]

114 all good

[ICE COLD]

T120 looks good . 

[GSP]

My untrained eye has the milder air slightly further north which may make a difference for the extreme SE. 

[Weathizard]

Looks like colder air delayed into southern England like the 6z GFS on this run

[chionomaniac]

Not as clean as previous run, but certainly acceptable. Note lower heights are just a bit further away to the east.

[sheikhy]

Yup here we go again!!memories of that 06z starting to show up again at 120 hours!!maybe not as bad!!?

[kold weather]

Good run for a large chunk of the country.

Cold air struggling to reach the SE for reasons already mentioned though the cold air being relatively close that may well help in any marginal set-up that maybe setting up.

Could be a tricky set-up for the SE coming up that could just as easily bring 30mm of rain or 30cms of snow! Most runs go cold enough but the GFS ensembles have consistently shown a risk of the milder air just nudging too far north.

PS - its light years better than the 06z, its just a slight variation of the theme.

Edited February 1, 2021 by kold weather

[The Beast From The East]

Model related, could someone explain why all models look like turning cold with winds from the East from the weekend onwards yet long range forecast just now at 2155 said "Hints of milder weather next week"

Thanks

[swilliam]

1 minute ago, GSP said:

My untrained eye has the milder air slightly further north which may make a difference for the extreme SE. 

Yes it is the boundary is a few hundred miles further north (especially in Europe) but still looks just ok

[Riky91]

Typical. Will be a constant up and down until sunday

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run T120:

All good I think!