Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Griff]

I guess it's all academic now? 

Latest ecm zonal, with reversal

[Mike Poole]

20 minutes ago, Cavehill Snow said:

You need to re-draw your direction arrow on the 240hrs pressure chart a little further south than shown, then you would score a perfect 10 for artistic merit.

What and miss all the snow with it going into the channel Island's?  It’s happened before!!!!

Edit: for clarity i was responding to the comments on my annotated charts, I have no worries at all about this upcoming event ending just in the Channel Islands!  No way!

Edited February 1, 2021 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Griff said:

I guess it's all academic now? 

Latest ecm zonal, with reversal

Nothing academic about that young man..Another reversal is putting us further into the cold picture a couple of weeks down the line.This could go down as the Winter that never went away.

[Arrows1986]

So can the other half put her washing out next week?

[john mac1]

2 minutes ago, Arrows1986 said:

So can the other half put her washing out next week?

Just lay it on the snow. That will be fine

[Jason H]

Still looking a cold outlook from the weekend. The OPS from the big three tonight all good up to T144. ECM and GFS show the extreme of what is possible in the current set-up and Meto seems to be singing from the same hymn sheet. I hope people enthusiastically commenting on charts over a week away aren't going to be disappointed if these exact synoptics don't come to fruition.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

What and miss all the snow with it going into the channel Island's?  It’s happened before!!!!

Remember Mike..worry about the cold getting in first...the snow will surely follow. We have a raffle ticket here...and I reckon we are guaranteed a top 3 prize.

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Remember Mike..worry about the cold getting in first...the snow will surely follow. We have a raffle ticket here...and I reckon we are guaranteed a top 3 prize.

Well don't give the ticket to me as i am so unlucky i came 3rd in a 2 horse race.

 

[swebby]

14 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Hi John. Why is there a spike in the green line near to us? I’ve not seen this before. TIA

I'm not john i'm afraid but those spikes are on the meridian, so it looks to me like an artifact -a glitch in how the graphics have been rendered in order to show a hemispheric representation. Occasionally see this with other models along the meridian.

[johnholmes]

16 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Hi John. Why is there a spike in the green line near to us? I’ve not seen this before. TIA

I've no idea it seems to be on the meridian line and has nothing to do with the contour line pattern. Yes it can be quite annoying at times, just ignore it/them is all I can suggest

[johnholmes]

Just now, johnholmes said:

I've no idea it seems to be on the meridian line and has nothing to do with the contour line pattern. Yes it can be quite annoying at times, just ignore it/them is all I can suggest

posted before I saw the answer from swebby

[Jordan S]

The frontal system moving in tonight, tomorrow and further snow into Wednesday likely bringing accumulations of 30-40cm by Thursday morning on the highest ground of Scotland.



This frontal system bringing some heavy rain at times for southwest England, Wales and especially northern Ireland, further areas of rain will move northwards into northern Ireland tomorrow afternoon through Thursday morning probably turning drier by Thursday afternoon here.. 30-50mm of rainfall will fall and possibly locally upto around 70mm.

Further south heavy rain may move into southern and southeasten parts of England on Wednesday morning.

the low responsible for the snow in northern parts of England and much of Scotland lingering around close to here during Thursday and Friday perhaps bringing more snow at times with the mountains potentially seeing around 40-50cm of accumulated snow altogether from Tomorrow - friday while much colder air over Scotland moves slowly south.. 

 easterly winds will likely move down across the country during Saturday and into Sunday as high pressure is positioned to the north of us and this slow moving low pressure system moves south, showers are likely in eastern parts, these likely to fall as snow increasingly to lower levels especially by Sunday..

There is the possibility of longer spells of snow too if disturbances form in the north sea, the added possibility of an area of snow effecting southern and eastern areas Sunday/Monday, although there is a small possibility of higher upper air temperatures moving into here which would increase the chance of precipitation falling as rain but that seems unlikely and the cold likely remains.

Scotland likely seeing some very low temperatures overnight later in the Weekend -15c or a little lower is a possibility in the coldest places during the early part of next week.

Ecmwf..

Gem..

These easterly winds are likely to continue through early next week with further snow showers particularly in the east and possibly the south.

Edited February 1, 2021 by jordan smith

[Crackerjack]

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

I know its off topic but please mods let me ask this one question

How is yesterday's Countryfile week ahead forecast going? 

 

Andy

Let’s just say it’s in the hands of Trading standards right now

[Frosty.]

Well, Shirley there’s plenty of grounds for optimism with tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean looking this stunning...for coldies?...just checking, following my last post ending up in the wrong thread... yes I think I’ve posted this in the model output discussion..or have I??!!!...chart order..out of order though!

 

[Mike Poole]

Probably worth at least discussing the T192-T240 clusters even though there are 6 of them:

Cluster 1 is excellent, clusters 3, 4 and 5 are great, the other two don’t get a clean continued source of cold air to the UK.  But discussion of these is a bit academic, the reason there are 6 is because there is massive uncertainty earlier on...we will see...

Edited February 1, 2021 by Mike Poole

[jacke]

1 hour ago, Snowfish2 said:

I would. I'm 52 

Wait until your 68 BOOM!

[Snowmadsam]

I'm still NOT calling this until below 72..... despite NWP all coming on board.....BUT the jump of the ECM on board does give me increased confidence....

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

From the Nickel mines of Norilsk, the Barren lands of Volgograd and Kazakhstan and then an endless train of icy winds from mid Siberia and possibly Vladivostok! It looks like it’s game on, and could well be a bit more than a flash in the pan this time. Surely a red warning in advance for the East coast would be issued with the GFS. Winds are shown to be getting near to 70-80mph gusts in -10 uppers and lower!! That would feel absolutely perishing. 

Excited is not the word. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[bluearmy]

When the ops line up with a wintry picture then it’s tempting to go overboard ...........

Interesting to me that both the para and the ec op build that cold surface scandi high (the eps control does aswell) 

[phil nw.]

A few posts have been moved over to here

Chat about signs in nature has it's merits i am sure but we only want posts around the model outputs please.

Edit,To add anything other than model output please not in here.A couple of other off topic posts have also been removed.

Thanks all.

Edited February 1, 2021 by phil nw.

[sebastiaan1973]

EC plume is for next week cold.

EC46 regime shows negative NAO, later on positive NAO or blocking

Control day 10-15 Northern Blocking.

[Biggin]

44 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Hi John. Why is there a spike in the green line near to us? I’ve not seen this before. TIA

Good question

[birdman]

1 hour ago, chris55 said:

We are looking at day 5-6 plus for the good stuff, so that's a very sensible position to take. Still lots of scatter on the GFS ensembles, which means confidence in the operational run is low.

The positioning of the cold flow is still finely balanced for the UK. 

The persistence of the broader pattern overall is very positive, but we need to wait a few days yet.

I'd say odds of a very cold easterly next weekend around a 66/33 in favour.

Haha thanks. I still like those odds and obviously pleased the signposts are there like everyone else is. It's just that spanners often appear out of nowhere and.... BAM! Fingers crossed though! 

[phil nw.]

Just a reminder guys general chat about the BBC or Met office should go into the correct threads or you can post here

Cheers.

[Had Worse]

41 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

The frontal system moving in tonight, tomorrow and further snow into Wednesday likely bringing accumulations of 30-40cm by Thursday morning on the highest ground of Scotland.



 

Can't pm you Jordan but something must have changed as MO have issued Amber at 20.38 which caused a few ripples in the NW regionals.