Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Do we think the phasing of that low from the atlantic deliver an all snow event, or will it introduce marginality (should it happen)

It would do if it made inroads against the cold uppers already entrenched over the UK but this trough doesn't make it on this run,look NE..

what a chart,...engagement from the NE and poss from the SW.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Still loving the para run . 

Yes.  It is as well to remember that in an uncertain situation that this most certainly is, prospects can go up as well as down!  Am I trying to sell a stock market investment or something,

[Stu_London]

9 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Model watching at its best. What is hilarious on here is how people can be “absolutely gutted” about something that has yet to occur . 

Anyway, another improvement on yesterday. Much to be resolved (and that won’t occur tomorrow I doubt). No denying ECM OP is poor, but only poor in comparison to the others, but no doubt it has definitely edged towards them a bit on the 12Zs (in a very GFS like way!). Northern blocking, in a yet to be determined form, is now virtually nailed on. Much concern about the dawdling low, IMO I think it will clear and give us a decent easterly for starters.

Certain people seem to want, or even expect, a cold and snowy nirvana straight off the bat. It rarely ever happens like that, just get the cold in, we don’t have zonal waiting in the wings, we are in a very good place to allow for even more potent bites of the cherry later on 

We have a super disturbed northern hemispheric pattern, largely courtesy of the ongoing Strat volatility, good forcing from the Pacific about to be introduced, and it’s only just about to be February, THE best month for snow chances. Some will soon be bleating on about warmer days etc etc but as far as I am concerned, this is as good as it gets right now. I’d happily take this going into March, let alone February!

So looking good for next weekend and hereafter who knows? There seems to be a myriad of possibilities, the good news though is that a good deal of them involve and  

A bit like backing a horse that then drifts in the market before the race - would anger a punter two fold as it means he could have won more money and infers the horse is perhaps fit for the knackers yard. But it could still win!

[Battleground Snow]

Missed the 18z runs just skim read through the posts... Seems to be some concern things are not optimal after 168?

With the "king" of the models getting it wrong at 120,  there is scope for improvements or less good charts at the stage,  remember even with -3 or -4 uppers on a direct north east feed snow can fall 

Here is p7, the best of the bunch tonight.

I'm loving model watching at the moment, it doesn't get much better than this, even if it doesn't come off in the end.

 

[Cloud 10]

Forget purple,Casper the ghost incoming from NE.

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Cloud 10

[Andypvfc]

24 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Now THIS is a lot closer to what we want to see if we're after more widespread snow chances...

Not when it comes to Crewe it's not. . I do feel a bit for Crewe here, as even when we do get a covering on the Cheshire / North Staffs border, it always stops at my back Garden and misses Crewe lol

[Man With Beard]

This para is very entertaining. -32C uppers appearing to the east. The most insane straight line easterly just to the north. Is there anyway of sucking that ice bath westwards?

[ICE COLD]

Battleground snow on the para. Really nice run that

[Stu_London]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Missed the 18z runs just skim read through the posts... Seems to be some concern things are not optimal after 168?

With the "king" of the models getting it wrong at 120,  there is scope for improvements or less good charts at the stage,  remember even with -3 or -4 uppers on a direct north east feed snow can fall 

Here is p7, the best of the bunch tonight.

I'm loving model watching at the moment, it doesn't get much better than this, even if it doesn't come off in the end.

 

The para is probably the best of the main operationals - lots have surface cold, so if you can get the snow in - it should stick for a while and make the surface even colder. ECM is the main concern

[Allseasons-Si]

The engagement on the gfs/p at 294 could be well rewarding if this comes off,...what a run.

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run // T300:

Just WOW!!! Goodnight everyone!  See you for the upgrades on the 0z suite...not!

Edited January 30, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Battleground snow on the para. Really nice run that

rain in the west country - sleet in Tunbridge Wells (again) - the interaction may give traction to pull those frigid uppers closer, but probably not as it is the stuff of model dreams and may not even be possible

 

[Allseasons-Si]

gfs/p

really cold uppers starting to cross the north sea....

WOW.

i would buy that for more than a dollar he! he!

Edited January 30, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Stu_London]

You have to laugh - Para delivers one of the most best ever runs in modelling history for those north of the M4

[sheikhy]

9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Missed the 18z runs just skim read through the posts... Seems to be some concern things are not optimal after 168?

With the "king" of the models getting it wrong at 120,  there is scope for improvements or less good charts at the stage,  remember even with -3 or -4 uppers on a direct north east feed snow can fall 

Here is p7, the best of the bunch tonight.

I'm loving model watching at the moment, it doesn't get much better than this, even if it doesn't come off in the end.

 

Every king has its really bad day and im hoping this is one of them for THE ecm!!!

[Mike Poole]

One more from me, T342:

May end up a wee bit north but whose counting at that range, T850s:

That purple thing could be licking Nicola Sturgeon’s backside. 

[ICE COLD]

And she is still giving . Look at that . 

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

You have to laugh - Para delivers one of the most best ever runs in modelling history for those north of the M4

Yes indeed, rubbish for the far south and it's not like we can drive to find snow ATM!  All academic at this range of course!

Edited January 31, 2021 by Don

[Jason H]

Just now, Don said:

Yes indeed, rubbish for the far south and it's not like we can drive to find snow ATM!

Winter is over....

[ICE COLD]

Just now, Don said:

Yes indeed, rubbish for the far south and it's not like we can drive to find snow ATM!

You join in in the end . That was a superb run . 

[Allseasons-Si]

The parra is simply wonderful tonight...

[Stu_London]

Just now, Jason H said:

Winter is over....

Yay - I claim my £5 for the first winter is over post

[Don]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

You join in in the end . That was a superb run . 

Absolutely!  My comment was purely tongue in cheek! 

[Stu_London]

For north of the M4, the para is Kleenex run (thats one up from a Carlsberg run)

[Jason H]

Just now, Stu_London said:

Yay - I claim my £5 for the first winter is over post

. It's only just beginning in my book.