Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Griff]

Just now, Man Without Beard said:

If the GFSP is being considered a poor run, we're in a pretty good place 

Exactly, very valid point and possibly will survive the low from the Atlantic, worth watching, but more complicated. 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

So after all that, this is what we are left with after a glancing blow Easterly where the 500mb heights get nowhere near 520 at the same time there's decent uppers.

Gutted - absolutely gutted.

It might not happen like that!  Lets give it a bit more time before writing it off!

Edited January 30, 2021 by Don

[Tim Bland]

GFSp whilst not as extreme as GFs and GEM is still a good run with snow into the east next weekend. This could be the 4th weekend in a row with snow for many...

[Cold Winter Night]

Decent runs so far.
The differences between models in over N-America, Greenland and the Arctic at 120h-144h are still very large.

GEM, as good as it looks, seems to do that retrogression 144h-216h wayyy too fast in my opinion.

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

So after all that, this is what we are left with after a glancing blow Easterly where the 500mb heights get nowhere near 520 at the same time there's decent uppers.

Gutted - absolutely gutted.

Deep FI though.

[Allseasons-Si]

The parra might pull something out of the netto bag to be a morrison's bag...ha! ha!

good clean Arctic high there.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

4 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Can see why NAO looks to go a little positive  with all that low pressure out West. Goes to show u can still have cold weather even with a +NAO

Exactly. The NAO could be likened to a game of football in terms of possession! 9/10ths of the law, but if nothing is done with it, and no decent easterly/Northeasterly or Northerly  shots are fired, you don’t achieve goals! 

[jacke]

43 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

I wonder if mr crew cold will join the party and also IDO

After my unkind comments to him yesterday I hope he does. May need some bringing down to earth and he is the man for that. Need all thoughts on this.

[Jason M]

Encouraging runs this evening. Don't need 850s of -20 as the airmass will be much better for snow than the rubbish we endured a few weeks ago. If you have -7 @ 850 this time its pretty much nailed on snow. 

[dallas]

4 hours ago, Nick F said:

Move S or SE ideally but with high pressure building to the N too.

Cheers

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The parra might pull something out of the netto bag to be a morrison's bag...ha! ha!

good clean Arctic high there.

Yes, just takes a bit longer on this one.  

[Frosty.]

22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Great upgrades this afternoon.  GEM is fantastic, GFS is very good, both have a clean evolution to bring the cold towards us in the day 4-7 period courtesy of the Atlantic high and Arctic high aligning well together,  the // slightly less clean evolution.  

Massive ECM tonight after the last two rather disappointing runs.  

Agreed Mike, some will Never be satisfied but I’ve seen enough evidence to convince me there’s a potentially noteworthy cold spell on the way, (at least for the north)..but hopefully nationwide!..GEM for example has been a and hopefully it’s seeing the future?!

Edited January 30, 2021 by Jon Snow

[pages]

12 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFSp looks like it might cause a wobble here... 

It's going to better than GFS and Gem and longer lasting just taking a extra couple of days to get there. Going to be great it in FI. No way for the high to sink or escape west from 204hr onwards and that iceland low is gonna slide in to already very cold air

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, just takes a bit longer on this one.  

Looks like a middle finger  

[Tim Bland]

GFSp with cold in place and snow attacking from both side...

[Matt H]

Think p12 has been on the sauce this evening, blimey!

[Snowjokes92]

 

 

33 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Here are the graphs for London and Sheffield

an upgrade from last nights.

Interesting for Tuesday, the uppers starting to dilute by the looks of it for Sheffield with that front.  More signs of mild uppers been washed out or not getting as far north and less marginal for some. Very good adjustments happening short term.

Edited January 30, 2021 by Snowjokes92

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, just takes a bit longer on this one.  

It's looking bloody damn good here at 210 with a clean NE flow with that trough dropping S/SE.

[JBMWeatherForever]

Usually when watching for a noteworthy cold spell I watch the GEM with some nervousness as it is often more realistic and smells the coffee when the other models show Narnia.  So the fact that GEM is showing the best solutions at the moment gives me more confidence than I would normally have that a significant cold spell is on its way.   

[MATTWOLVES 3]

20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

So after all that, this is what we are left with after a glancing blow Easterly where the 500mb heights get nowhere near 520 at the same time there's decent uppers.

Gutted - absolutely gutted.

Wow Feb.. if your gutted by the 12z output so far today,I'd hate to see how you feel if we're staring down the barrel of a Bartlett..

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's looking bloody damn good here at 210 with a clean NE flow with that trough dropping S/SE.

Huge dump of snow on that chart and it will probably ridge into Greenland after from Canada

[MATTWOLVES 3]

11 minutes ago, andymusic said:

with the way the models are sizing things up - they know what's coming - they just don't want to cause a panic just yet this far ahead

More likely to be due to the fact they are basing that forecast on the ECM run of this morning..They will catch up in a couple of days time

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Huge dump of snow on that chart and it will probably ridge into Greenland after from Canada

As per the meto outlook it comes in from the SW with the SW seeing some snow

[NApplewhite]

4 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Usually when watching for a noteworthy cold spell I watch the GEM with some nervousness as it is often more realistic and smells the coffee when the other models show Narnia.  So the fact that GEM is showing the best solutions at the moment gives me more confidence than I would normally have that a significant cold spell is on its way.   

Strange weather - just rain in Wrexham when the Met office were forecasting heavy snow a few days ago. Also where has the high pressure for next week disappeared to> 

[MJB]

32 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

No posts about the GFS (p)?...must be a reason 

Onto the ECM, I wonder if it will throw up another head scratching run as per yesterdays 12z? I just wish the meteorological mists would clear so we know roughly where we're going. Supercomputers - nah! not when it comes to blocking and the after effects of a SSW.

Pretty poor really