Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6

GFS

 

Low pressure sinking south, easterly setting in nicely. Helped by the high linking with the other high over the pole.

UKMO

 

Low pressure is also clearing away south. Need to watch that cold pool over south Greenland. A few other models are developing this enclosed feature.

[Snowman.]

GFS is beautiful at only T144.

The arc is incredible.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Slowly getting back on track after that wobble from last nights ECM. Slowly edging closer to the reliable timeframe too. Seems like it’s taking a lifetime mind you! 

As much as the Mediterranean heights are the bane of a snow hunters life, this could easily end up in a full blown blizzard as the air masses clash over Central Europe. What a rollercoaster ride it is. 

[sheikhy]

Upgrades on the 12zs so far!!

[Duncan McAlister]

+156 looking better for something sustained than the 06?

[Snowman.]

So far the 12z are slightly further south with lows more elongated with pressure much higher to then north when compared to the horror sets of yesterday.

So far so good, no bed soiling yet.

[MJB]

I will be thrilled just to get to this point 

[Snowman.]

Getting a tingle in the nether regions...

  

[Griff]

At 6 and 3/4 days the majority of the UK land mass has cold 850s

[Duncan McAlister]

Will be dry as a bone where I am, but what can you do?

[That ECM]

Nice looking chart. Let’s start worrying about it being dry.

Right on cue.^^^^^^^

Edited January 30, 2021 by That ECM

[MATTWOLVES 3]

45 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I haven’t posted for ages..well a week actually?.. but I’ve observed plenty of model / emotional swings for sure..and..my honest opinion..the latest models sofa today..well, I think a wintry spell is coming, for sure there’s been an upgrade since last nights pathetic ecm 12z op..hmmmmm!...anyway..I think winter is coming guys...and gals!

 

Stop telling porkies Karl..you posted about an hour a go..

The 12s are encouraging and the icon finishes very sweetly..just need that stubborn bugger ECM to pull its weight now.. And I'm feeling this time it will end up with its tail between its legs.

[Allseasons-Si]

Great 12z so far...

convective snow showers piling in from the east...

now who's moaning now,GREAT METO UPDATE TOO

[MJB]

 

Bit chilly eh?

Wintry for next weekend if verifies 

[Cloud 10]

GFS 168 hrs with a very sharp boundary between mild and bitterly cold with a front stretching from Spain all the way East to....wherever.

[Methuselah]

Only T+171, and the GFS 12Z could be a belter:    

[JoeShmoe]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

You say that as if it’s a bad thing . Lol Most coldies in here would be breaking open the champagne if that happened in their area .

Theres no such thing as too much snow ! 

Not a bad thing, just struggle to believe that can be correct !

[Battleground Snow]

GFS starting to edge the low heights further east towards Italy at 192.

This will make a huge difference for the temperatures on the south coast

[nick sussex]

Yes ! Low pressure finally developing over northern Italy .

A biting east ne flow heavy snow showers driven much further inland . Lots of instability .

Enjoy the snow UK coldies . Really great to see .

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by nick sussex

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Only T+171, and the GFS 12Z could be a belter:    

Looks a little Feb 09 easterly - anyone else agree?

[Duncan McAlister]

Very robust E’ly setup now.

[sheikhy]

Judging from the 72 to 96 hour chart maybe its not all over in regards to the snowline being further south for tuesday on ukmo!!

[saintkip]

That’s more like it, the cold uppers well clear of the south coast

[snefnug]

11 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Getting a tingle in the nether regions...

  

Is that near Belgium?

 

[Snowman.]

lol

SE and EA can't moan anymore anymore if that come to be.

850s vs lowres 2M temps, in these situations 850 temps aren't everything.