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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


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Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    A fresh model thread to continue to follow the ups and downs of what's already been an action-packed winter so far. There's a snow risk in places this weekend and into next week, then there are increasing signs from the models that the beast from the east could arrive later in the week - though nothing is nailed on yet..

    Model thread rules of engagement!
    As usual, please keep it to the models in this thread, and keep it friendly and respectful of other people's views.

    • If your post is discussing the model output, then it's fine in this thread
    • If your post is mostly not about the models, briefly mentioning a model by name or putting a chart in there does not make it model discussion - the best place for this sort of thing is the winter chat thread.
    • Please use the Met Office thread to discuss their outlooks.
    • A local slant is ok as many people prefer to look at the models with a view to their local conditions
    • Local 'will it snow type' posts, or local forecast chat are not suited to the model thread though, the best place for these sorts of posts is the regional area

    The stratosphere is a bit talking point at the moment, for more info and in depth discussion around that, please take a look at the Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch thread.

    Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
    UKV (Extra subscribers)
    GFS
    GEFS Ensembles
    ECMWF
    ECMWF EPS
    NetWx-SR (3km)
    NetWx-MR (9km)
    Met Office (UKMO)
    Fax
    GEM
    GFS Hourly

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    Quick summary, GFS cold and snowy by 144 Para cold and snowy by 144 Ukmo cold and snowy by 144 Gem cold and snowy by 156 ECM cold and VERY snowy by 156.  

    OMG I love this post . Shows just what a weird but wonderful bunch coldies are ! Your post in a nutshell sums up just how much this means for cold and snow lovers . Bless you Mike . 

    Yes ! Low pressure finally developing over northern Italy . A biting east ne flow heavy snow showers driven much further inland . Lots of instability . Enjoy the snow UK coldies . Really gre

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    Welcome to

    didiland.jpg

    Enjoy the models rollercoasterride!

    It's all D10 again! This moving/shifting cold block couldn't NOT be an issue/trouble-maker...(?)

    spacer.png

    Do not trust D10 Charts!

    Edited by Vikos
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    Posted
  • Location: Dead Centre of the Vale of Clwyd
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Sancerre.
  • Location: Dead Centre of the Vale of Clwyd

    ECM seems to sometimes go AWOl when it first senses bigger drivers in an unconventional configuration, which the global signals seem primed for. Probably just me, but I see the mess of the ECM 12Z as a positive. It seems confused and stuff is darting all over the shop. It will reconfigure on the 00 or tomorrow's 12 and model convergence from the 5th or 6th Feb may commence. We'll see. M.R.N.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
    3 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    Welcome to

    didiland.jpg

    Enjoy the models rollercoasterride!

    It's all D10 again! This moving/shifting cold block couldn't NOT be an issue/trouble-maker...(?)

    spacer.png

    Do not trust D10 Charts!

    I don't trust day 5 charts..

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    Posted
  • Location: Cowbridge
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, cold snowy winters, thunderstorms
  • Location: Cowbridge

    I wouldn't worry about what happens in over 5 days away guys. So much is happening beforehand with snow events this weekend (battles between the warm and cold airmass). It will look different after they pass. So many fine lines drawn in at close range that will change the future modelling picture. In addition the ECM hasn't exactly been the best in forecasting in over 5 days recently. Constant chopping and changing like the rest of the models. Such a big difference tonight vs this morning. I would stick closer to the fax charts or to the nearer and now atm until volatility (fine balances between  the warm/cold sector's) in the weather calms down. That boundary is constantly changing. Eventually one will be a clear winner. Theres no point in getting wound up over the weather. It will do what it pleases . Lets just enjoy the ride and watch it do its thing.  There will always be winners and losers when it comes to cold and snow. And normally I am one of the losers as it doesn't often snow down in the south west. Most of you will get a better chance of seeing the white gold than me  😉😁. Have a great night 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    5 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    Welcome to

    didiland.jpg

    Enjoy the models rollercoasterride!

    It's all D10 again! This moving/shifting cold block couldn't NOT be an issue/trouble-maker...(?)

    spacer.png

    Do not trust D10 Charts!

    But it is not day 10 - the ECM goes wrong way earlier than that. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Medium term EPS trending the wrong way - let’s hope it’s just a blip!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level

    EC Op 12z compared to its own 0z is fairly similar up to +120, but then they diverge.

    Instead of Heights suddenly popping up between Iceland and Svalbard, the 12z now lowers heights there.
    The Scandi/Iceland High doesn't even get a chance tonight.

    GFS 12z did not look good either, but that failed in another way, at a later timeframe, so together they do not create a 'trend'.
    GEFS was an upgrade overall. I really wonder what EPS will show tonight.

    However, they do show that getting cold here is always complicated and patience is asked of us. Quite a challenge, for me at least!

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    Just now, mulzy said:

    Medium term EPS trending the wrong way - let’s hope it’s just a blip!

    That really isn't what we wanted to hear but thanks for your updates about the ecm ens

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    7 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    But it is not day 10 - the ECM goes wrong way earlier than that. 

    We will see in the ENS. I think it's an enormous outlier or some major issues in the deterministic input values that got EC off the track.

    Or some background signals disturbing both big models...?

    Edited by Vikos
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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    You can slow the frames down on the site but I can't transfer the file

    Are you referring to the period between 144 and 168hrs? Does it just vanish?

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    Just now, blizzard81 said:

    That really isn't what we wanted to hear but thanks for your updates about the ecm ens

    They are not awful - just poor compared to this morning.  Those damn Med heights!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    When you look at the GFS 12Z op in context with its ensemble, things don't look nearly as bad, as when you view it on its own:👍

    image.thumb.png.486d697e1490d5775f5697da41efbc7a.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

    One would hope that the Mogreps has a handle on this.

    The volatility we are seeing in the free to view models is in sharp contrast to a confident long ranger from the M.O.

    The update suggests a block to the North East from the 4th and all the way toward the end of February.

    This sort of robust outlook in terms of widespread cold and snow hasn't been offered up so far this winter.

    All the fantastic charts with 'potential'  we witnessed in December and January were never met with much of a response from Exeter.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

    That really isn't what we wanted to hear but thanks for your updates about the ecm ens

    Talk about being bipolar.. yesterday they were looking spectacular 🤦‍♂️

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    They are not awful - just poor compared to this morning.  Those damn Med heights!

    A constant thorn unfortunately. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    As i say if the ecm does not improve on the 00z its game over!!nobody will like what im saying but ive seen this happen plenty of times over the years and more often than not there is no going back!!i can call this now but i wont i will give the ecm a chance till the 00z!!!you can have all the ensemble backing you want but the op is very good at picking out a change and those ensembles will follow in the end!!!yes 1 op run does seem to go wrong and then improve straightaway the next run and we better hope this is one of those times!!!anyway enjoy whatever snow we get between now and tuesday lol!

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    Just now, sheikhy said:

    As i say if the ecm does not improve on the 00z its game over!!nobody will like what im saying but ive seen this happen plenty of times over the years and more often than not there is no going back!!i can call this now but i wont i will give the ecm a chance till the 00z!!!you can have all the ensemble backing you want but the op is very good at picking out a change and those ensembles will follow in the end!!!yes 1 op run does seem to go wrong and then improve straightaway the next run and we better hope this is one of those times!!!anyway enjoy whatever snow we get between now and tuesday lol!

    I agree. Its happened way too many times before. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Definitely not as bad as OP but worse than this morning heights to NE gain less latitude and higher pressure in med which makes it difficult to draw coldest air in.

    4D88051B-184E-4CBC-99DE-CBAC5C531C77.thumb.png.8e90dbcc871df1df6560bc5d74585bf4.pngF4CDA9BE-8E94-402B-ABEF-256095D0471A.thumb.png.814f3d6f857c0a83e68bf1fd794d3dc5.png

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    They are not awful - just poor compared to this morning.  Those damn Med heights!

    Mate one day they lookk darn good and next update theyre not good at all🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Definitely not as bad as OP but worse than this morning heights to NE gain less latitude....

    4D88051B-184E-4CBC-99DE-CBAC5C531C77.thumb.png.8e90dbcc871df1df6560bc5d74585bf4.pngF4CDA9BE-8E94-402B-ABEF-256095D0471A.thumb.png.814f3d6f857c0a83e68bf1fd794d3dc5.png

    That's doesn't look too bad at 216 with lowish heights near Italy.

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    Just tunes back in , then spat my tea out WTF was that from ECM , I will say now its on the high side of the ENS

    UKMO Decent 

    Good MET Update 

    image.thumb.png.8589d8b95d6d56956286111ebc91e588.png

    Decent GEFS 

    And then ECM produces the worst run for days ............I'm not so sure 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street
    1 minute ago, chris55 said:

    I tend to laugh at this kind of comment, but each to their own. 

    Sheikhy has spoken. We may as well all go home........

     

    Back to the models and here are the big three at day 6 for reference.

    UKMO

    spacer.png

    EC

    spacer.png

    GFS

    spacer.png

    Looks like a timing issue with that low. Ukmo clearing it east south east quicker. Much to be resolved

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, chris55 said:

    I tend to laugh at this kind of comment, but each to their own. 

    Sheikhy has spoken. We may as well all go home........

     

    Back to the models and here are the big three at day 6 for reference.

    UKMO

    spacer.png

    EC

    spacer.png

    GFS

    spacer.png

    Fair enough!!!just beware this one run could change the whole dynamics!!!i want it to get back to what it was showing just as much as you mate!!fingers crossed!!

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